Seat share distribution of parties: Models and empirical patterns

We find that strategic sequencing and other factors sort parties roughly into two groups. Low-ranking parties lose part of their inherent support, compared to probabilistic expectations, while high-ranking parties profit from the shift. Our method is to graph the worldwide mean seat shares of parties at various ranks by size against the largest party share (Nagayama triangle format). The resulting empirical pattern looks complex, yet when we adjust a probabilistic model to account for strategic and other factors that may hurt the smaller parties, the fit becomes close. The number of parties that profit from transfers is close to the inverse of the fractional share of the largest party. The model fits best when the transfer is assumed to involve about one-half of inherent minor party support. This is a novel way to estimate the universal average strength of strategic and other factors that work against the smaller parties. The empirical worldwide mean pattern offers us a norm against which seat share distributions in individual countries or single elections can be compared.     

South Korea and Sino-Japanese rivalry: a middle power's options within the East Asian core triangle

Abstract

South Korea is a middle power in a region where its scope of action can rise and fall quickly and diplomatic flexibility is needed. Neither realist responses to threats nor idealist trust in integration meet its needs for adjusting triangular ties with China and Japan, as their relations become the principal great power divide in Northeast Asia. Its optimal choice is as a facilitator biding its time when tensions over both security and national identity clashes are intense, while preparing for opportunities. Four conditions would give it a favorable environment: forward-looking foreign leadership; security challenges brought under some control; subsiding preoccupation with national identities; and its own strategic planning with care not to overreach. Multiple possibilities emerge if it can rebuild ties with Japan as part of a triangle with China as well as one with the United States and also synchronize ties with China to other ties. Even amidst recurrent tensions, the core East Asian triangle offers Seoul a chance to take advantage of changing dynamics in the world's most ascendant region.     

刑事诉讼的功能性结构及其法理学分析

所有刑事诉讼主体的诉讼功能之间的整体关系构成刑事诉讼的功能性结构,经过法理整合的审判、控诉和辩护三种基本诉讼功能之间的关系的整体构成刑事诉讼基本的功能性结构。以刑事诉讼的功能性结构概念为基础建构的“三分圆”理论模型优越于“三角”理论模型,既可藉以对刑事诉讼的基本结构作定性分析,又可藉以对刑事诉讼的结构模式进行定量分析。当事人主义与职权主义结构模式的区别在于刑事审判程序中证据调查的功能性结构的不同,二者的划分严格讲来只适用于刑事审判程序。刑事诉讼的两重结构不是两种结构。     

Public Value in Politics: A Legislative Budget Office Approach

We use Legislative Budget Offices (LBOs) as both a lens and a test of “public value in politics,” a facet of Moore’s original framework that remains its most contested. We identify two public value roles for LBOs: (1) as a normative-advisory institution, and (2) as a mechanistic-costing one. Through Moore’s Strategic Triangle, we contrast the higher public value contribution of the advisory role, as manifested in the United States, with the costings role as manifested in Canada. Our findings suggest that LBOs enhance both democracy and efficiency and thus show how “public value in politics” can be achieved.     

Public Value as Rhetoric: A Budgeting Approach

The public value theory has been accused of serving as a “rhetorical device” for public managers to advance their interests and influence vis-à-vis politicians. This article uses Legislative Budget Offices (LBOs) as a lens to re-examine the theme of “public value as rhetoric”. It examines how an LBO can relegate itself to a lower public value-creating position that avoids conflict with politicians, which then allows politicians to employ rhetoric such as fiscal “sustainability” and “responsibility”, without making actual budget choices that incur political costs. The findings of the article suggest that the use of public value as rhetoric is a function of contradictory values held by citizens, which politicians and public managers must reconcile by choosing to divert either resources or rhetoric. Furthermore, rhetoric is bidirectional, and employable not just by public managers, but by politicians as well.     

三党互动对两岸关系影响研究——基于战略三角分析法

两岸主要政党--中国共产党、中国国民党和民主进步党--之间的互动,对两岸关系产生着重要的影响.借助战略三角分析法可以看到,2005年以来,三党间形成了"稳定婚姻"的三角格局,共产党和国民党在这个"三角"中扮演着"伙伴"的角色,而民进党则成为"孤鸡",但这种格局并不利于两岸关系发展.如果共产党积极发展同民进党的关系,那么两岸三党格局将朝"浪漫三角"演变.在这个新格局中,共产党的角色将会从先前的"伙伴"提升到"枢纽",这对抑制台湾分裂势力发展、加速两岸统一具有重要的现实意义.     

破产视角下的抵销

为更好地反映抵销制度的正当性基础,应细化抵销的类型,区分“独立的抵销”与“同一交易内的抵销”,并在破产法上作不同的处置.对照“同一交易内的抵销”制度,有助于我们更准确地认识债权债务折算及解除返还的制度,更深刻地理解民法上“牵连关系”、同时履行抗辩、留置权(尤其是商事留置权)等概念或制度,并更好地安排抵销在诉讼法上的处置.从立法论的角度,“同一交易内的抵销”制度可作为未来我国修订企业破产法的参考.在判断可否进行破产抵销时,一方面应继续贯彻破产撤销制度尤其是偏颇清偿制度的基本理念,另一方面应充分考虑抵销制度中的公平考量,承认实际利益主体与名义权利人可能分离的现实,更注重利益的关联,限制转让债权与受让债权的抵销,但同时又不过分拘泥于债权之间形式上的相互性.另外,应重视抵销的担保功能,保护包括后顺序债权人在内的破产债权人于破产程序之外本应享有的权利.在抵销与其他担保权竞争的情况下,原则上应承认抵销的优先性.     

经济犯罪之刑罚结构研究

刑罚在经济犯罪中的运用需要理想的刑罚结构。为此,可结合经济犯罪的特点分析各刑种在调整经济犯罪时的利弊得失,并以此为基础设计出一种以罚金刑和有期徒刑为主体,以无期徒刑和没收财产刑相结合为辅助,以拘役刑作为罚金刑替代措施处于次要地位的“三角形”式的刑罚结构模式。以此为指导,以破坏社会主义市场经济秩序罪为例,对我国现行经济犯罪的实然刑罚结构进行分析,可以发现我国现行经济犯罪的刑罚结构由于死刑、管制刑的存在,而使其具有不合理性,因此,要优化现行经济犯罪的刑罚结构,必须废除死刑,取消管制刑,并对其他刑种进行微调。