网络案件预警响应模型初探

通过系统科学中大系统控制理论对网络案件的响应进行模型化分析,利用控制论中全局响应机制与局部响应机制对不同网络案件进行响应。我们认为,网络案件的响应不仅需要公安机关的响应,还需要其他行政机关的响应。同时,各个响应单位都应具备全局决定局部,局部服务全局的大局意识,以保证更好的对网络案件进行响应。由此,我们得出了网络案件预警响应模型的响应过程及流程,最终达到建立有效的网络案件响应模型。     

万山特区新农村建设面临的问题及对策

贫困落后地区把握好历史机遇克服困难,奋力推进社会主义新农村建设的根本出路在于争取国家政策倾斜,加强农村教育,提高农民素质;改善优化环境;加强农村基层组织建设,完善村级管理。     

Fraud and recessions: Views from fraudsters and fraud managers

While a link is often made between the economy and crime levels, the evidence suggests that characteristics of an adverse economic climate can lead to either an increase or a decrease in crime. In this paper the impact of the recession on fraud is examined. This work is based on work undertaken by the author with fraud managers (via three group discussions), and interviews with sixteen fraudsters in prison. The findings underline the need for caution in making a link between increased levels of fraud and an adverse economic climate. More research is needed in this area to examine what types of offences, or what characteristics of them are most likely to be affected by poor economic conditions.     

宪政之下的直接民主——基于德国公民投票制度理论与实践之反思

德国法理论认为,公民投票是人民直接参与国家权力运作的一种形式,对其制度的设计,应更多地考虑其权力的属性。德国对公民投票制度的引入非常谨慎,在联邦层次基本上否定了公民直接参与国家权力运作的可能;在州和地方层次的公民投票的范围受到较为严格的限制。与此同时,公民投票还要受到司法机关的司法审查。     

SCM协议中财税措施地区专向性特别规定初探——兼评美国对华反补贴调查的相关案例及我国的对策

SCM协议地区专向性标准条款中的财税措施特别规定具有经济合理性,并符合WTO的政治考虑。该特别规定认定“有资格”的地方各级政府所采取的“确定或者改变”在其辖区内“普遍适用”税率的补贴措施不具有SCM协议意义上的专向性。我国应充分利用该特别规定提供的政策空间,深化税制改革,协调地方政府地区补贴与SCM协议之间的关系。     

刑法上的因果关系探究

对刑法中的因果关系的判断应着眼于本国的司法实践。由于我国耦合式的犯罪构成模式,使得我国在刑法因果关系的判断上不可能仅是事实层面的判断,而应是事实层面和价值层面的统一。只有将这两个层面之间的关系理顺,才能对刑法上的因果关系做出合理的判断。     

Major depression – a study on the validity of clinicians’ diagnoses in medicolegal assessment

Major depression ranges among the most frequently diagnosed psychiatric disorders. Accordingly, diagnoses of depression are often underlying insurance, compensation or disability claims. This report evaluates the validity of clinicians’ diagnoses of major depression in a sample of claimants. In 2015, n = 127 consecutive cases were examined for medicolegal assessment. For all of them, a diagnosis of major depression had been established by clinicians. All testees underwent a psychiatric interview, a physical examination, they answered questionnaires for depressive symptoms according to DSM-5, embitterment disorder, post concussion syndrome (PCS) and unspecific somatic complaints. Performance and symptom validity tests were administered. Only 31% fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for DSM-5 major depression according to self-report, while none did so according to psychiatric assessment. Negative response bias was found in 64% of cases, feigned neurologic symptoms in 22%. Symptom exaggeration was indiscriminate rather than depression-specific. By self-report, 64% of the participants qualified for embitterment disorder and 93% for PCS. In conclusion, clinicians’ diagnoses of depression seem often confounded by improper assessment of the diagnostic criteria, confusion of depression with bereavement or embitterment and also by response bias.     

The 2001 British Election Study Internet Poll

ABSTRACT

This paper reports on the findings of the Internet component of the 2001 BES and compares them with those of the other BES pre-election surveys. Part 1 outlines the rationale that underpins the introduction of Internet polling as a supplement to more traditional methods of assessing mass public opinion. Part 2 describes the marginal distributions on the key dependent variable-the projected vote shares of the main political parties-of the three pre-election polls that were conducted using BES questionnaires. Intriguingly, the (unweighted) Internet-based poll provided a better guess of the actual vote shares in the subsequent election than either of the two conventional polls. Part 3 provides a more detailed comparison of the profiles of the face-to-face and Internet-based polls. It shows how the Internet poll, compared with the face-to-face poll, was skewed demographically towards the professional classes and politically towards the Conservative Party. Part 4 explores the extent to which the use of the Internet poll might result in spurious causal inferences being drawn about the sources of voting preferences in the 2001 UK election. A simple, direct-effects causal model is estimated using both the face-to-face probability sample data and the Internet survey data. The results suggest that, although the raw probability and Internet samples differ significantly, the relationships among the key variables do not differ significantly across the two samples. We conclude that Internet polling has an important part to play in gauging and analysing public opinion in future UK elections.