网络案件预警响应模型初探

通过系统科学中大系统控制理论对网络案件的响应进行模型化分析,利用控制论中全局响应机制与局部响应机制对不同网络案件进行响应。我们认为,网络案件的响应不仅需要公安机关的响应,还需要其他行政机关的响应。同时,各个响应单位都应具备全局决定局部,局部服务全局的大局意识,以保证更好的对网络案件进行响应。由此,我们得出了网络案件预警响应模型的响应过程及流程,最终达到建立有效的网络案件响应模型。     

万山特区新农村建设面临的问题及对策

贫困落后地区把握好历史机遇克服困难,奋力推进社会主义新农村建设的根本出路在于争取国家政策倾斜,加强农村教育,提高农民素质;改善优化环境;加强农村基层组织建设,完善村级管理。     

优质旅游有效供给因素对我国旅游产业效率的影响及区域差异

优质旅游是新时代我国旅游产业发展的必然选择。通过采用三阶段DEA模型等方法,从支撑因素、产业发展及消费需求三个维度构建优质旅游有效供给的环境变量,并采用面板数据实证分析了优质旅游有效供给因素对我国旅游产业效率的影响与区域发展差异。研究结果表明,优质旅游有效供给环境变量对我国旅游产业效率影响显著,其中支撑因素水平和旅游消费水平促进效率提升,产业发展在一定程度上抑制效率增长;目前我国优质旅游有效供给总体水平不高,且不同区域及省份之间表现出一定差异。因此,应通过进一步优化支撑要素水平、建立旅游投资总量调控及质量监督机制、制定积极的消费引导政策、缩小区域差距等,促进产业效率改进,提高优质旅游有效供给总体水平。     

Major depression – a study on the validity of clinicians’ diagnoses in medicolegal assessment

Major depression ranges among the most frequently diagnosed psychiatric disorders. Accordingly, diagnoses of depression are often underlying insurance, compensation or disability claims. This report evaluates the validity of clinicians’ diagnoses of major depression in a sample of claimants. In 2015, n = 127 consecutive cases were examined for medicolegal assessment. For all of them, a diagnosis of major depression had been established by clinicians. All testees underwent a psychiatric interview, a physical examination, they answered questionnaires for depressive symptoms according to DSM-5, embitterment disorder, post concussion syndrome (PCS) and unspecific somatic complaints. Performance and symptom validity tests were administered. Only 31% fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for DSM-5 major depression according to self-report, while none did so according to psychiatric assessment. Negative response bias was found in 64% of cases, feigned neurologic symptoms in 22%. Symptom exaggeration was indiscriminate rather than depression-specific. By self-report, 64% of the participants qualified for embitterment disorder and 93% for PCS. In conclusion, clinicians’ diagnoses of depression seem often confounded by improper assessment of the diagnostic criteria, confusion of depression with bereavement or embitterment and also by response bias.     

Sexual and violent recidivism by offender type and actuarial risk: reoffending rates for rapists,child molesters and mixed-victim offenders

Abstract

The current study examines sexual and violent reoffence rates for a sample of 2474 sexual offenders over an average of 15 years following release from prison. Reoffence rates are reported as a function of the offenders' victim type and level of risk as assessed by the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale, a computer scored measure of relevant historical risk factors. Observed sexual recidivism rates for offenders with child victims, adult victims, and mixed victims were quite similar. Results indicate that offenders with exclusively female child victims not only showed a lower rate of sexual reoffending, but that the reoffence rates were relatively low across all levels of actuarial risk. In contrast, those with male child victims and adult victims showed a pronounced escalation of reoffence rates as actuarial risk increased. Results also indicated that adult victim offenders are less consistent in the victim type of their reoffences, with 37% sexually reoffending against child victims. Finally, combined rates of sexual and violent reoffending were particularly high for those with adult victim sexual offence histories. Risk assessment and public policy implications are discussed.     

The 2001 British Election Study Internet Poll

ABSTRACT

This paper reports on the findings of the Internet component of the 2001 BES and compares them with those of the other BES pre-election surveys. Part 1 outlines the rationale that underpins the introduction of Internet polling as a supplement to more traditional methods of assessing mass public opinion. Part 2 describes the marginal distributions on the key dependent variable-the projected vote shares of the main political parties-of the three pre-election polls that were conducted using BES questionnaires. Intriguingly, the (unweighted) Internet-based poll provided a better guess of the actual vote shares in the subsequent election than either of the two conventional polls. Part 3 provides a more detailed comparison of the profiles of the face-to-face and Internet-based polls. It shows how the Internet poll, compared with the face-to-face poll, was skewed demographically towards the professional classes and politically towards the Conservative Party. Part 4 explores the extent to which the use of the Internet poll might result in spurious causal inferences being drawn about the sources of voting preferences in the 2001 UK election. A simple, direct-effects causal model is estimated using both the face-to-face probability sample data and the Internet survey data. The results suggest that, although the raw probability and Internet samples differ significantly, the relationships among the key variables do not differ significantly across the two samples. We conclude that Internet polling has an important part to play in gauging and analysing public opinion in future UK elections.     

The Need for Gender-Sensitive Medical Interpreters for Victims with Limited English Proficiency in Sexual Assault Examinations

Abstract

The difficulties and trauma associated with sexual violence are exacerbated by language difficulties. Language difficulties pose particular barriers in accessing legal, social, medical and support services. This presents additional challenges for sexual assault response teams (SART). The SART members serve critical functions in supporting a victim of sexual violence from trauma to trial.

This paper addresses the need for trained gender-sensitive medical interpreters for adult female victims with limited English proficiency (LEP) in sexual assault examination, and thus the need for inclusion of trained medical interpreters in SART. Such needs were articulated from interviews with advocates and medical interpreters in the US, from literature reviews and conversations with women with LEP in the US. The paper closes with a set of specific recommendations that will promote comfortable accessible service to female victims of sexual violence with LEP.     

A theoretical framework for the online consumer response process The article is based on Janette Hanekom's Master's dissertation entitled A theoretical framework for the online consumer response process,Department of Communication Science,Unisa, April 2007.

Abstract

This article describes the foundation and development of a theoretical framework for the online consumer response process. It is based on theoretical criteria for web-based commercial communication and the online consumer response process. Central to this article is the development of the concept of web-based commercial communication. This includes all advertising, marketing communication, public relations and promotional messages on the World Wide Web which are intended to move the consumer through certain response phases to the point of purchasing or proceeding to any other type of action; the identification of the marketing communication paradigm shift from offline to online; and the comparison between online and traditional mass media audience characteristics. A theoretical conceptualisation of the online consumer response process is undertaken and an analysis of consumer response models and the theory of the general consumer response process is performed. This article is a theoretical exploration of the phenomenon of ‘online consumer response’ and the proposed theoretical framework is intended to address the dearth of literature on the topic.     

构建全息指挥与协同应急新模式

全息指挥是对传统应急指挥模式的突破,它基于应急效率对于应急信息的直接依赖性,利用成熟的网络技术和音频与视频技术,开发具有立体全面、实时直观、信息共享、准确高效等特点的全息指挥平台。借助这个技术平台,应对突发灾难事件的有关各方可以更容易建立联合指挥与协同应对的合理机制,克服应急过程中越级指挥、多头指挥和无序指挥等较为普遍的问题,促进资源整合,优化应急流程,提高应急水平。