"非直接利益冲突"的规律及制度性应对思考——对重庆万州事件、四川大竹事件、贵州瓮安事件的反思

非直接利益冲突已经成为当前执政与治理的极大难题。它表现出冲突双方强弱差距越大,参与可能性越大;强势方态度行为越强横,参与的速度越快;政府部门的处置不及时,参与的程度越深等规律。预防非直接利益冲突的发生发展,需要加快建设促进社会良性运行的基础法律制度,加速完善提高执政权威与效能的行政法律制度,健全社会力量整合与引导的社会法律制度。     

Empirical examination of public debt sustainability in African economies: A panel data analysis

This study intends to investigate public debt sustainability across 29 Sub-Sahara African (SSA) economies, employing various econometric specifications, for the sampled years 1996–2020. The study employs Bohn's (Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint? Journal of monetary Economics, 54(7), pp.1837–1847.) framework of sustainability as the baseline model to assess public debt sustainability across the sampled Sub-Sahara African economies. As additional tests of public debt sustainability in order to support the baseline findings, the study also employs panel unit root and timeseries unit tests. The baseline findings from the OLS, panel quantile and instrumental panel quantile regressions show that public debt is sustainable across the panel of SSA economies. The positive and statistically significant response of primary balance under the Bohn's framework of sustainability manifest that the intertemporal budget constraint is not violated in the sampled economies. The consistency in the estimates under the OLS, panel quantile and instrumental panel quantile regressions also show that the estimates are robust throughout the estimation process. Also, utilizing the panel unit root test for public debt sustainability, the findings show that public debt is stationary over the sampled years which implies that intertemporal budget constraint holds and that public debt is sustainable across the sampled SSA economies. However, the timeseries analysis indicate that although majority of the SSA economies have sustainable public debt ratios, four countries namely Uganda, Sudan, Togo and Cote d'Ivoire have unsustainable public debt ratios. The study has important policy implications in terms of prudent public debt management and fiscal management for the sampled SSA economies.     

Global economic resilience: Analyzing the diverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US,Pakistan, and the world

The economic development of a state can be accurately characterized as the measurable changes in macroeconomic indicators that result in an increase in the overall production or output over a specific timeframe, in comparison to the previous period. Several key macroeconomic factors contribute to the advancement of economic growth. These factors include the industrial production, unemployment rate, business Confidence Index, government budget deficit, and the labor force participation rate. The study employed secondary data from January 2016 to August 2023, with a monthly frequency, to estimate the coefficients. The data encompassed the United States, Pakistan, and the rest of the world. The empirical findings indicate that there exists a negative relationship between equality and economic growth in the United States, Pakistan, and other countries worldwide. The findings demonstrate that the global pandemic has had a notable impact on the industrial production of the World, the United States, and Pakistan, with an initial increase followed by a gradual decline. The unemployment rates in the United States, Pakistan, and the rest of the world have experienced a substantial decline. Simultaneously, the rate of unemployment has witnessed a notable increase, resulting in significant and adverse effects on the respective economies. The decrease in the Business Confidence Index can be attributed to heightened levels of uncertainty, which in turn have had a detrimental impact on the gross domestic product of the United States, Pakistan, and other countries worldwide. The reduction in imports has resulted in a decrease in the government budget deficit, which has had a notable impact on the economy.     

Modeling spending preferences & public policy

Understanding preferences over government spending is important for understanding electoral behavior and many other aspects of the political world. Using data on relative preferences for more or less spending across different issue areas, we estimate the general spending preferences of individuals and congressional candidates along a left-right spending dimension. Our modeling approach also allows us to estimate the location of policies on this same dimension, permitting direct comparison of people's spending preferences with where they perceive policy to be. We find that public shows very low levels of polarization on spending preferences, even across characteristics like partisanship, ideology, or income level. The distribution of candidates' spending preferences shows much more sorting by party, but candidates are significantly less polarized than is contemporary voting in Congress.     

腰椎间盘突出的自身免疫反应及其法医学意义

损伤时间推定与伤、病鉴别,一直是法医学领域研究的重要课题。腰椎间盘突出是一种以人的生理退行性变为基础的改变,为了寻找准确推断其发生时间的方法,本文综述了腰椎间盘突出后机体细胞免疫、体液免疫反应与损伤时间的关系。认为进一步研究突出髓核组织局部与外周循环中IgG、IgM表达的特征性变化,有望成为推定损伤时间的方法之一。     

State and Local Prevalence of Firearms Ownership Measurement, Structure, and Trends

Of the readily computed proxies for the prevalence of gun ownership, one, the percentage of suicides committed with a gun, is most highly correlated with survey-based estimates. It is the best choice for use in cross-section analysis of the effect of gun prevalence on crime patterns across states and larger counties.Analysis of this proxy measure for the period 1979–1997 demonstrates that the geographic structure of gun ownership has been highly stable. That structure is closely linked to rural tradition. There is, however, some tendency toward homogenization over this period, with high-prevalence states trending down and low-prevalence states trending up.     

手机通话语音的实验研究

当前,手机通话语音已成为司法语音鉴定中最为常见的一种语音形式。本研究从手机通信系统的信道特点出发,分析手机通话语音的声谱特点和共振峰频率变化等情况;同时还比较了不同通话网络、不同通话方式及不同手机的通话语音特点。实验发现,手机通话语音与直接录音语音有明显的变化,主要表现在高低频信息的带宽滤波效应、高低频共振峰的漂移、语音质量、音色、韵律特征等方面;还发现,不同手机通话条件下的语音变化程度不同。最后,讨论了手机通话语音变化对说话人鉴定的影响及鉴定中的注意事项。     

浅析奥运会安全保卫中的反恐问题

在当前恐怖主义全球肆虐的严峻形势下,奥运会作为世界体坛盛事,由于其特有的国际政治影响力和人员参与的广泛性、密集性而容易受到国际恐怖主义的威胁。奥运会的反恐保卫已经成为全球"反恐战争"中开辟的又一重要战场。在新的时代条件下,针对奥运会的恐怖主义活动往往表现出许多有别于传统恐怖主义的新类型和新特点,这给反恐安全任务带来新的挑战和压力。有鉴于此,文章借鉴以往的历史经验以2008年北京奥运会为背景,从战略和技术两个层面入手提出了相应的处置对策。     

我国行政决策回应机制建设途径探索

提高行政决策的水平和决策效率,实现行政决策的科学化、民主化,关 键在于改革和完善行政决策体制,提高政府的回应能力。知识经济的发展,要求建立行 政决策回应机制。我国行政决策回应机制建设的基本路径:一是要树立"与民决策"和 "让民决策"的观念,二是要加强回应制度建设,三是要加强回应载体建设。     

费正清的两岸关系论述及其台湾效应

冷战时期,以费正清为代表的美国学术界以台湾作为研究中国的基地,而费正清也积极地介入两岸关系与台湾事务。费正清的＂大陆—台湾＂论述可以分为三个时期：早期的＂亲共＂,中期的＂反共＂,与后期的＂两岸共治＂。费正清多变的面孔反映了美国不同时期基于美国国家利益而做出的对中国两岸政策的调整,而台湾对费正清体系的反应则体现了冷战时期西方同盟内部中心与边缘地区的矛盾,以及两种不同政治体制、不同文化之间的冲突。