Direct and Indirect Effects of Case Complexity, Guilty Pleas, and Offender Characteristics on Sentencing for Offenders Convicted of a White-Collar Offense Prior to Sentencing Guidelines

Previous research on the punishment of offenders convicted of a white-collar offense estimated models that specify only direct effects of defendant characteristics, offense-related variables, and guilty pleas on sentence severity. Drawing from conflict or labeling theories, much of this research focused on the effects of offender's socioeconomic status on sentence outcomes. Findings from this research are inconsistent about the relationship between defendant characteristics and sentence severity. These studies overlook how differences in case complexity of white-collar offense and guilty pleas may intervene in the relationship between offender characteristics and sentence outcomes. This study seeks to contribute to an understanding of federal sentencing prior to the federal sentencing guidelines by testing a legal-bureaucratic theory of sentencing that hypothesizes an interplay between case complexity, guilty pleas and length of imprisonment. This interplay reflects the interface between the legal ramifications of pleading guilty, prosecutorial interests in efficiency and finality of case disposition in complex white-collar cases, and sentence severity. Using structural equation modeling, a four-equation model of sentencing that specifies case complexity and guilty pleas as intervening variables in the relationship between offender characteristics and length of imprisonment is estimated. Several findings are noteworthy. First, the hypothesized interplay between case complexity, guilty pleas, and sentence severity is supported. Second, the effect of offender's educational attainment on sentence severity is indirect via case complexity and guilty pleas. Third, offender's race and gender effect length of imprisonment both directly and indirectly through the intervening effect of case complexity and guilty pleas. These findings indicate the need to specify sentencing models that consider the direct and indirect effects of offender characteristics, offense characteristics, and guilty pleas on judicial discretion at sentencing.     

Die Evaluation öffentlicher Politiken mit föderalistischen Vollzugsarrangements. Eine konzeptionelle Erweiterung des Stufenmodells und eine praktische Anwendung

Der vorliegende Artikel leistet einen Beitrag zur Konzipierung von Wirkungsmodellen für die Evaluation von öffentlichen Politiken mit föderalistischen Vollzugsarrangements. Das Phasenmodell des Policy‐Zyklus erfasst die Prinzipal‐Agent‐Probleme des Vollzugsföderalismus nur unzureichend. Es ist aus diesem Grund sinnvoll, in der Genesephase eine Zusatzschlaufe vorzusehen, die dem Umstand Rechnung trägt, dass in der Schweiz die Kantone beim Vollzug von Bundesgesetzen nicht nur Umsetzungs‐, sondern auch Programmierungskompetenzen haben. Diese Zusatzschlaufe impliziert allerdings beim häufig verwendeten Stufenmodell von Knoepfel und Bussmann (1997) für die Evaluierung öffentlicher Politik das Problem, dass es zu einer Vermischung der Evaluationsgegenstände auf Bundes‐ und Kantonsebene kommt. Diesem Umstand begegnen wir mit der Erweiterung des Stufenmodells, indem wir die beiden föderalen Ebenen getrennt betrachten und die Evaluationsgegenstände nicht generell, sondern entsprechend der Staatsebene definieren. Das Modell wird mit einer Anwendung aus der Evaluation des Krankenversicherungsgesetzes illustriert.     

试析菲律宾出口导向型工业化发展战略

自 8 0年代中期起 ,菲律宾政府对经济发展模式进行调整 ,通过推行出口导向型工业化发展战略 ,经济运行环境从过去那种高封闭、高干预的状态向着一种较为开放、宽松的环境过渡 ,增长方式发生了显著变化 ,经济发展速度明显加快 ,摆脱了此前发展中存在的“增长 -衰退”不良循环状态 ,整体经济呈现出了较好的发展前景。     

凭祥要成为中越跨境经济合作区的先行区

中越两国正在合作推进跨境经济合作区建设,在两国都缺乏建设跨境经济合作区经验的情况下,需要一个先行区先行先试一些特殊政策。本文分析了凭祥在建设中越跨境经济合作区中的一些独特优势,提出凭祥可率先成为中越跨境经济合作区的先行区,并提出一些建设内容和对策措施。     

协同创新 全线共赢——浅谈长江经济带与北京科技创新方面的合作设想

打破区域、产业及行业间的限制和束缚,实现跨界融合,以全球视野谋划和推动科技创新,已成为北京实施创新驱动发展战略、建设科技创新中心的重要机遇。该文结合具体案例,提出充分利用以北京为代表的创新资源优势,同时推动创新驱动、协同发展两大战略,实现长江经济带与北京科技创新方面的合作设想。     

A Revised List of Wars Between and Within Independent States, 1816-2002

This paper merges constructivist theoretical insights into the rival role identity, rival role relationships, and the resulting culture of anarchy that characterizes the interstate system with recent empirical measures of rivalry. This project is carried out through an examination of the Latin American regional subsystem, which has already received some attention from analysts concerned with interstate culture, largely because of the relative lack of interstate conflict in the region. The dyadic relationships of 17 Latin American states and the culture they produce are examined between 1948 and 1992. The paper employs simultaneous equation modeling to capture aspects of the co-constitution of these agents and structures, consistent with constructivist theory. The results indicate that the Lockean culture of anarchy and the adoption of a dyadic rival role relationship are affected by a variety of factors emphasized by realists, liberals, and constructivists in the Latin American context.     

Incentivizing self‐regulation: Federal vs. state‐level voluntary programs in US climate change policies

How does program sponsorship influence the design of voluntary programs? Why and how do voluntary programs on climate change sponsored by the state and federal governments in the United States vary in their institutional design? Scholars emphasize the signaling role of voluntary programs to outside stakeholders, and the excludable benefits that induce firms to take on non‐trivial costs of joining voluntary programs. Scholars have noted several types of benefits, particularly reputational benefits programs provide, but have not systematically studied why different programs emphasize different types of benefits. We suggest that excludable benefits are likely to take different forms depending on the institutional context in which program sponsors function. We hypothesize that federal programs are likely to emphasize less tangible reputational benefits while state programs are likely to emphasize more tangible benefits, such as access to technical knowledge and capital. Statistical analyses show the odds of a voluntary program emphasizing tangible benefits increases by several folds when the program is sponsored by the state as opposed to federal government.     

福建参政党与海峡西岸经济区建设

福建省海西战略实施五年以来,各民主党派积极发挥参政党优势,为推进海峡西岸经济区建设参政议政、建言献策作出积极贡献。今年5月国务院通过了《关于支持福建省加快建设海峡西岸经济区的若干意见》,支持以福建为主体的海峡西岸经济区建设已成为国家的战略决策。文章对福建各民主党派如何把握新机遇,发挥参政党的职能优势,在新一轮海西建设中体现新作为略作分析探讨并提出相关对策思考。     

辅音的声学特征在声纹鉴定中的应用研究

针对汉语普通话辅音的声学特征进行个体特性的声学研究,提取能量集中区、过渡音征、送气辅音的嗓音起始时间值等三种特征参数,以最终确定它们能否作为稳定的个体特征参数在声纹鉴定中应用。     

Parties and their Leaders. Does it matter how they match? The German General Elections 2009 in comparison

The ‘personalization of politics’ hypothesis assumes that personalization takes place in election campaigns, in the mass-media, and in the calculus of voting. We claim that the distinction between person/leader and organization implicitly assumed by the personalization hypothesis does not capture how voters observe politics. In contrast, our hypothesis is that evaluation criteria regarding parties and leaders are not in competition but reinforcing. This hypothesis is investigated by looking at the relevance of party and leader evaluations for vote choice in the German Federal Elections in 1998, 2002, 2005, and 2009. The results show that party evaluation matter more than leader evaluation and, more importantly, a match of parties and their leaders with regard to general evaluations determine vote choice as good as single evaluations together.