Doing prevention science: A response to Dennis M. Gorman and a brief history of the quasi-experimental study nested within the Seattle Social Development Project

The history of the quasi-experimental intervention test nested within the Seattle Social Development Project (SSDP) is described in the context of the history of delinquency and drug abuse prevention studies before and after 1980. Efforts to identify and assess threats to internal validity associated with the study design are discussed. The pattern of observed results associated with the intervention test is reviewed, and our efforts to advance both prevention theory and preventive interventions in light of these findings are described.     

张君劢对中央政制的具体设计——简析《国事会议宪草》及《政协宪草》设计的中央政制

张君劢起草的《国事会议宪法草案》和《政治协商会议宪法草案》有关中央政制都采用了新内阁制设计,两部宪草都产生了很大影响,后者还被国民党政府采用为1947年宪法的底本,本文就是对这两部宪草设计的中央政制的研究。     

An experimental comparison of question forms used to reduce vote overreporting

Via telephone, a national probability sample of 1464 respondents randomly received one of three question versions of a voter turnout question in the months of December, January, and February, following the November 1998 Congressional elections in the United States. The long version form contained memory cueing techniques and face-saving response options, the short form, modeled after the 2000 American National Election Studies (ANES) question, included only the face-saving response options, and the standard form, modeled after ANES questions used before 2000, included neither. The long form led to significantly lower reported turnout in comparison to both the short and standard forms, indicating that the long form successfully reduced vote overreporting in comparison to the other question versions.     

浅谈多媒体课件的优化与整合

多媒体教学课件的设计制作直接影响教学效果。制作课件时,一方面要根据教学内容、教学目标精选媒体素材,创设学习情景并确定对各种教学要素的最佳组合;另一方面,要选择合适的、交互性较强的课件制作工具整合媒体素材,体现教学设计。     

Designing the United Nations Environment Programme: a story of compromise and confrontation

The role of the United Nations in global environmental governance was determined in 1972 when a new international body for the global environment was created as a programme within the United Nations rather than as an autonomous specialized agency. A set of political dynamics between developed and developing countries led to the decisions on the functions, form, financing, and location of the new intergovernmental organization—the United Nations Environment Programme. This article traces the historical roots of these choices and exposes the motivations behind them.

Using group-based trajectory modeling in conjunction with propensity scores to improve balance

This paper builds upon two prior papers by Haviland and Nagin (Psychometrika 70:1–22, 2005) and Haviland, Nagin, and Rosenbaum (Working paper, 2006) that attempt to bring the key attributes of an experiment to the analysis of non-experimental longitudinal data. Using a case study of the facilitation effect of gang membership on violence, it systematically examines the contribution of group-based trajectory modeling to the achievement of covariate balance in observational data. In this case study, inclusion of the posterior probabilities of group membership (PPGM), from a model on the pre-treatment measures of the outcome variable, created closer balance on these key covariates than did analyses that did not include them. Still closer balance was obtained on these key covariates by stratifying the analysis by trajectory group. This stratification was achieved by fitting separate propensity score models and matching gang joiners to gang abstainers within trajectory group. In addition, we demonstrated that further balance could be obtained on additional covariates by including PPGM from a model on pre-treatment longitudinal data of these covariates. While this case study is only one empirical example, we believe that it provides useful empirical evidence on the value of performing within trajectory group causal inference in observational longitudinal data and on the use of the PPGM in achieving balance in propensity score-based causal inference.

The relationship between bedding and face-down death in infancy: mathematical analysis of a respiratory simulation system using an infant mannequin to assess gas diffusibility in bedding

Rebreathing is a model for the relationship between a prone sleeping position and sudden infant death syndrome. This study used a mechanical simulation model to establish the relationship between types of bedding and rebreathing potential for an infant placed prone (face down) at different postnatal ages. The infant mannequin was connected to a respirator set to deliver physiologically appropriate combinations of tidal volume (V(T)) and respiratory rates (RR) across a range of postnatal ages (0-18 months). Before measurements were made, CO(2) flow was regulated to 5+/-0.1% of end-tidal PCO(2) (EtCO(2)). After the model was placed in a prone position, any increase in the fractional concentration of inspired CO(2) (FiCO(2)) was measured. FiCO(2) increased immediately and rapidly, and reached a maximum value within a few minutes. The maximum FiCO(2) ranged from under 2% to over 10%, depending on the bedding. FiCO(2) was also affected by V(T) and RR. This model is not applicable to actual infants because of the large tissue stores of CO(2) in infants; however, it is useful for evaluation of gas diffusibility of bedding and will simplify the investigation of sleeping environments when a baby is found dead with its face covered by soft bedding. In general, the higher the FiCO(2), the greater the rebreathing potential. Theoretically, considering the paucity of body stores of O(2), changes in FiO(2) would be affected not by changes in FiCO(2), but by CO(2) production and gas movement around the infant's face. The rapid decrease of FiO(2) is approximated at the inverse of the FiCO(2) timecourse, suggesting the significance of not only CO(2) accumulation but also O(2) deprivation in the potential space around the baby's face.     

论再生产与环境保护法制建设

面临全球严重的环境问题,传统再生产理论中四个环节已出现局限性。新的再生产理论发展为以生态设计为起点,经过生产、分配、交换、消费,到最后循环处理,符合热力学定律和生态规律,促进经济发展与环境保护双赢。环保法制建设要在再生产全过程中落实。     

现代城市夜景规划设计初探

我国设计师从80年代初开始对城市夜景进行研究,但研究的侧重点局限子景观照明领域。本文根据近几年来城市夜景景观建设过程中产生的问题,从对城市夜景观与夜景规划设计的认识出发,力图把城市设计理论与实际相结合。在城市夜景景观规划设计领域提出初步的理论构想。     

Identification of some factors influencing soil transfer on shoes

In criminal activities, soil can be transferred from a crime scene to items linked with a perpetrator; for example, shoes, cars or tools. Several parameters will influence the quantity of soil transferred in a given scenario. The knowledge of the most influential factors can help the expert to assess the evidence using a logical approach at the activity level or to predict the amount of soil that can be expected in a given scenario. The influence of five chosen parameters, namely the shoe profile, shoe size, walker's weight, soil type and soil humidity were assessed using Design of Experiment (DOE) in order to understand their influence on soil quantity transferred on shoes.The Faced Central Composite Design (FCCD) using a quadratic model was found to be highly significant, thus they could be adequately used to model and to interpret the amount of soil recovered from one shoe.These designs demonstrate that the characteristics of the donor (soil type and soil humidity), as well as a combination of these two factors have a very significant impact on the soil transfer. The characteristics of the receptor (shoe profile, shoe size and walker's weight) also have an impact on the transfer but to a lesser extent.Globally, this research provides valuable information for the forensic scientist both in investigative mode: evaluation of the soil quantity possibly transferred on shoes, and in the evaluative steps: is the quantity of soil found on the suspect shoes in accordance to the proposition/scenario given by the prosecution and the defence?