超越“确保摧毁”：核武器数量、承诺可信度与核威慑原理

现有几乎所有关于核威慑的理论和政策研究都认为,核武器数量是否达到确保摧毁门槛对核威慑有效性有决定性影响。这种"确保摧毁"原则对学界的影响已达到范式级程度,以至于学者们在争论中国核武器数量够不够这个政策问题时,均自发地从该原则出发论证各自的主张。本文认为,"确保摧毁"范式忽视了承诺可信度在核威慑生效过程中所起的关键性作用,特别是未能充分意识到核武器数量变化对承诺可信度的反向影响以及这种反向影响对核威慑生效机制的影响,因而错将是否具备确保摧毁能力作为判断核威慑是否有效的唯一标准。通过剖析核武器数量、承诺可信度与核威慑有效性三者的作用关系,充分说明,"确保摧毁"既不是核威慑有效的充分条件,也不是其必要条件;未达到确保摧毁门槛时无需增加核武器同样有可能实现有效核威慑,而达到该门槛后为确保威慑有效反而应当(继续)增加核武器。超越"确保摧毁"范式有助于更准确、更完整地理解核威慑生效的全部机制。     

人工智能影响复合战略稳定的作用路径:基于模型的考察

技术进步与时代变迁促使战略稳定的体系框架发生了重大变化。战略稳定理论的研究视角也经历了从核战略稳定、军事战略稳定到复合战略稳定的转变。一个新时期的复合战略稳定模型为探求上述理论与现实之间的互动提供了支撑,即通过战略能力、战略行为和战略意愿等三大链条,分析复合战略稳定的要素构成与互动关系,并且选取最有代表性的颠覆性技术——人工智能作为案例,分析其在复合战略稳定模型中的作用路径。人工智能的优势在于能够打破国家战略能力、战略行为和战略意愿三者的间隔,通过对战略能力的全面渗透效应、对战略意愿的双向引导效应、对战略行为的动态介入效应,从正负两个方面影响复合战略稳定。但是,人工智能对战略稳定的影响在多数情况下是负面的。这一发现,对于更好地认识人工智能对战略稳定的影响,以及维护战略稳定和提升人工智能治理能力,都具有重要的启示意义。     

论工会维权与促进企业发展的关系

新形势下,工会有效地维护职工合法权益,必须实现有效的参与和决策。只有将职工的意愿以规章制度的形式确定下来,才能有“本”可依,从源头上维护职工的合法权益,促进企业的发展。     

The Impact of Marital Aggression on Women's Psychological and Marital Functioning in a Newlywed Sample

The impact of husband-to-wife physical aggression on changes in wives' personal and marital well-being was examined in a representative sample of newlywed couples. The sample consisted of couples who completed baseline (time of marriage) and first anniversary assessments as part of the Buffalo Newlywed Study (n = 543). After controlling for sociodemographic variables, initial relationship satisfaction, and verbal aggression, wives who experienced physical aggression from their husbands during the first year of marriage reported increased stress and lower marital satisfaction at the first anniversary. Further, they were more likely to report separation from husbands due to marital problems during the first year of marriage. Experiences of partner physical aggression during the premarital period were associated with greater frequency of heavy drinking episodes among wives, although they were not associated with changes in average daily volume of ethanol consumed. Results suggest that among a community sample, experiences of husband-to-wife physical aggression have negative consequences for both women's psychological well-being and marital functioning.     

构建效率与公平兼顾的和谐社会

效率与公平二者并重,不可偏废。舍弃效率只求公平,只能够导致共同贫穷;突出效率忽视公平,势必造成贫富悬殊,影响社会的稳定。社会稳定与否,是构建社会和谐的前提与基础。社会稳定的基本点则在于是否能够正确处理效率与公平的关系。兼顾效率与公平的统一,是我国构建社会主义和谐社会的内涵。     

试论第三代领导集体的社会稳定观

思想稳定是基础,政治稳定是核心,社会秩序的稳定是社会稳定的体现。在改革、发展中保持稳定,坚持党的领导,发挥党在维护稳定中的核心作用,正确处理人民内部矛盾,坚持“法治”与“德治”相结合,维护社会稳定。第三代领导集体稳定观的主要特征是:时代性、科学性、实践性和乐观性。     

建设中国特色的法律援助制度

建立法律援助制度是现代法治国家的本质要求。目前,我国法律援助机构存在着政事不分、重复设置的问题,没有建立起法定的法律援助经费保障机制,法律援助的申请条件过高,无法满足众多贫弱者的法律援助需求。《法律援助条例》的颁布实施为建设中国特色的法律援助制度打下了良好的基础。     

云南跨境民族问题与国家安全研究

(续上期 )云南跨境民族问题在全国具有典型性和代表性。作为多民族、多宗教的边疆省份 ,云南的跨境民族问题没有激化 ,云南不会发生严重的民族分裂行为 ,边疆民族地区是稳定团结的 ,但要维护国家安全和社会稳定 ,要完善和改进的地方还很多 ,例如 :制定正确的民族政策、坚持和完善民族区域自治制度、扶持民族经济、发展民族教育、培养民族干部……等 ,本课题所研究的问题 ,仅供党和政府及有关部门参考。     

经济全球化对中国政治稳定的影响和对策

经济全球化对中国政治稳定带来机遇的同时,也有可能从经济安全、主权安全、贫富差距扩大和意识形态安全等方面带来不利影响。从经济全球化角度而言,中国保持政治稳定的对策主要是:对全球化的失利者建立完善的社会保障体制;在经济全球化进程中正确处理坚持国家主权与自我限制治权的关系;扩大党的社会基础、增强党的影响力,巩固党的执政地位;坚持和创新马克思主义意识形态。     

Constructing Cooperation: A New Approach to Confidence Building between India and Pakistan

ABSTRACT

India and Pakistan have tempered their rivalry over the years by negotiating many bilateral confidence-building measures (CBMs), but the current patchwork of agreements cannot prevent an act of cross-border terrorism from triggering a major militarised crisis. To help mitigate this shortfall, this article advocates a new conceptual approach towards confidence building that identifies two categories of agreements – negative and positive. Negative CBMs oblige inaction; they can be defined as promises to eschew provocative behaviour, so as to prevent miscalculation and accidental war. Most prominent Indo-Pakistani CBMs fall under this category – examples include agreements on non-attack of nuclear facilities and non-violation of airspace. Positive CBMs, by contrast, oblige action; they entail tangible engagement and cooperation in the military, diplomatic, or economic domains. Examples might include counter-piracy cooperation and the expansion of people-to-people contacts. This article argues that positive CBMs invite reciprocity and are a plausible tool for promoting bilateral goodwill, reducing mistrust, and insulating Indo-Pakistani relations from shocks.