试析社会稳定的范畴

维持社会稳定与经济发展、人权保障一样,是政治的重要目标之一.在当代社会,社会稳定与宪法自由、经济发展及社会共识密切相关.社会稳定同时是一种深刻的文化要求或政治思维方式,在某一文化中被认为是有助于社会稳定的行为,在另一文化中可能被视为对稳定的巨大威胁.     

War Games redux? Cyberthreats,US–Russian strategic stability,and new challenges for nuclear security and arms control

Some 30 years since the release of the Hollywood blockbuster War Games, the possibility that hackers might break into nuclear command and control facilities, compromise early warning or firing systems, or even cause the launch of a nuclear weapon has become disturbingly real. While this challenge will impact all nuclear-armed states, it appears particularly acute for the USA and Russia given their large, diverse, and highly alerted nuclear forces. The fact that east–west relations have deteriorated to a nadir perhaps not seen since the 1980s, strategic instability has increased – particularly in the wake of the Ukraine and now Syria crises – and that the nuclear arms reductions agenda appears to have reached a standstill makes this challenge particularly pressing. In this discouraging milieu, new cyberthreats are both exacerbating the already strained US–Russia strategic balance – particularly the perceived safety and security of nuclear forces – and at the same time creating new vulnerabilities and problems that might be exploited by a third party. Taken together, these dynamics add another major complication for current arms control agreements and possible future nuclear cuts, and also seem likely to increase the possibility of accidents, miscalculation, and potential unauthorised nuclear use, especially given the large number of nuclear weapons that remain on “hair-trigger” alert.     

The verdict in the polls: how government stability is affected by popular support

The idea that the stability of governments is affected by how they are performing in the polls is both intuitive and popular in the literature. When support is low the government might be inclined to replace parties or the prime minister in order to regain support, thus forming a replacement government. Alternatively, a government doing well in the polls might opportunistically try to schedule an early election to capitalise on its favourable prospects. But despite the popularity of the idea, it has thus far not been tested empirically whether government stability is in fact influenced by popular support. This article aims to address this lacuna. Using a relatively new dataset with more than 12,000 unique polls, and recently developed Bayesian models for pooling the polls, it is here shown that government stability is in fact impacted by popular support. Governments display clear signs of electoral opportunism when they are polling well and, conversely, dissolve the government, without calling an election, when polling is bad. The results are strongest when there are few parties in the government, since agreement on the timing for a discretionary termination is easier when fewer players need to agree.     

论中产阶层行为的法律规制

随着现代市场经济的发展,我国的中产阶层正在发展壮大,有利于社会和谐稳定的"橄榄型"社会阶层结构正在形成。但是,我国中产阶层的理性行为方式还没有完全形成,存在着缺乏社会责任感、行为缺乏有效的社会制约和自我约束、对国家权力的依附性等问题,因此,必须对中产阶层的行为进行有效的法律规制。加强对中产阶层行为的法律规制,主要是进一步加强现代市场经济法制建设,包括加强物权法制建设、加强市场交易法制建设、完善公平的资源配置机制和社会流动机制、加强廉政制度建设、加强社会组织法制建设等。因此,依法规制中产阶层的行为还应当注意处理好几个关系。     

关于建立劳动关系协调预警机制的思考

稳定职工队伍 ,要从建立基层劳动关系协调预警机制入手 ,在预测、预审、预报、预防上下功夫 ,做好群众的思想工作 ,及时解决群众的实际问题 ,尽量防止矛盾的激化。     

安全困境、战略自主与风险偏好的惯性探究

为什么一个大国会从“风险规避型”偏好向“风险承担型”偏好转移？大国风险规避或风险承担的战略偏好并不总是与实力对比或战略环境相匹配,有时在现状收益递减或相对权力优势最大化时选择克制战略,却在仍处于现状收益递增或权力劣势时选择冒进战略。对于解释风险偏好的这一不确定性特征,可通过对国家战略自主性、战略动机、安全困境和风险偏好惯性等进行关联性考察,采取兼具体系变量与单元变量的综合路径,探究非本意的系统效应结果。通过对近代欧洲多极体系与美苏冷战两极体系的结构性和进程性考察,验证了自利德尔.哈特到保罗.肯尼迪的目标—手段的动态平衡对大国应对战略风险的重要性,并在一定程度上丰富了战略自主性与风险偏好的惯性研究。     

促进高校毕业生就业对策研究观点述评

受新冠疫情等多重因素影响，高校毕业生就业形势越发严峻。本研究在梳理高校毕业生就业相 关理论的基础上，从毕业地、高校类型、学科及家庭因素等方面对高校毕业生就业现状进行了总结。研究认为， 高校毕业生就业存在的主要问题有劳动力需求收缩、就业稳定性变差、“慢就业”现象升温及就业歧视加剧等， 原因主要是劳动力市场就业结构性失衡、用人单位适合毕业生的岗位稀缺、高校毕业生就业能力不足及就业服 务缺乏针对性等。研究建议，为改变高校毕业生就业现状，应完善促进就业创业政策，加强就业服务和权益保障， 建立健全教育与就业的联动机制，提高高校就业工作实效性，同时毕业生也应顺应变化转变观念，制定职业规划， 培育就业能力。