Measuring Civilian Defensive Firearm Use: A Methodological Experiment

Estimates of the incidence of victim gun use from the National CrimeVictimization Survey (NCVS) are consistently lower than are those fromother studies. To examine the divergence, we conducted a survey that gaugedthe impact of methodological differences between the NCVS and the otherstudies. For half of the sample, we asked questions from the NCVS, followedby questions from the other surveys. For the other half of the sample, wepresented the questions in the reverse order. We examined two hypotheses:(1) survey methods account for the divergent results, and (2) the questionscover unrelated activities. The results provided some support for the firsthypothesis, but respondents also reported many more defenses to thequestions from the other surveys than to the NCVS questions. Consistent withthe second hypothesis, this suggests that the NCVS and the other surveysmeasure responses to largely different provocations.     

新入狱罪犯的特点及改造对策探析

受社会政治、经济发展变化的影响,我省近三年内新收押罪犯的构成出现了新的变化,其心理和行为均出现了新的特征,对刑罚执行工作提出了新的挑战。笔者采取情况普查与个案调查相结合、摸底分析与座谈讨论相结合的方法,对我省2001年1月1日至2003年8月31日期间监狱新收押的罪犯情况进行了调查研究,从新入狱罪犯的构成特点和其心理行为特征分析入手,提出相应的改造对策,为我省的监管安全和教育改造工作提供了有用的参考和必要的理论支撑。     

论中介－－兼论其对于人类活动的不可或缺性

处于主客体之间并且不断体现和延伸主体需要的中介,是一种相对独立的形态。中介形式作为人影响世界的物质手段、精神手段,作为人感知世界的桥梁,在人类活动中占有着十分重要的地位。在意识的产生和发展中,在人类对各种价值的理解、阐释以及创造性的活动和社会信息的传播过程中,各种中介形式的出现,表明着人类能动性的增长,表明着社会明的进步,并且也体现着一种人类活动要遵从于自然法规的必然性。在社会实践中,人类借助中介来探索和把握世界,同时,人类对中介领域的探索更是无止境的。     

The acceptance,relevance and dominance of lobbying the EU Commission — a first‐time survey of the EU Commission's civil servants

Among public affairs techniques lobbying is by far the most mystifying one — at least in Europe. Lobbying comes from the Latin word ‘labium’ and means ‘entrance hall’ or ‘lounge’. Therein the essential meaning can be seen: today political decisions are not made in plenary assemblies but primarily in the pre‐political phase of balancing the various interests. Lobbying is to be understood as the ‘diverse intensive activities of social groups, chambers and companies in the political and bureaucratic vestibule’ (Beyme 1980). Modern lobbying on the EU level is an intermediary policy for the support of political decision making — even if some critics refuse to believe it. Lobbying at EU level has become a politically realistic dimension. Even if the mass media still take a very sceptical and negative view of lobbying in Brussels, based on the existing European taboo on influencing politics, an in‐depth analysis reveals various lobbies at work in EU institutions. Lobbying today is an essential part of all EU decision areas. This paper describes the functional theory approach of lobbying known as ‘cooperation as confrontation through communication’. For the first time, recipients of lobbying in the EU Commission are demonstrating their acceptance of lobbying efforts. The paper is based on the doctoral thesis ‘The acceptance, relevance and dominance of lobbying the EU Commission’ by Peter Koeppl, University of Vienna (unpublished). Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications     

Strategic coalition voting: Evidence from New Zealand

Whereas the classic literature on strategic voting has focused on the dilemma faced by voters who prefer a candidate for whom they expect has little chance of winning a seat, we consider the dilemma faced by voters in PR systems who do not expect their preferred party to be in government. We develop hypotheses relating to strategic voting over multi-party governments that we test using the New Zealand Election Study (NZES) campaign study of 2002. We find evidence that expectations play a role in structuring vote choice. While there is clear evidence of wishful thinking there is also evidence that voters respond to expectations about government formation. These expectations may mobilize voters and lead them to defect from their first preference.     

Policy,office and votes: An experimental investigation of the dynamic aspect of party goals

Political parties face hard choices when balancing desires to influence public policy, to gain executive office and to win votes. The existing literature examining such party preferences has traditionally focused on rather static aspects of the parties, such as size, policy positions and the level of intraparty democracy. This article argues that party actors' sophisticated estimations of whether to enter into coalition can be affected by fluctuating public opinion, thereby having a more dynamic aspect. Drawing on a survey experiment on youth politicians in Norway, we test how perceived standing in the polls affects how politicians weigh up policy versus office and votes versus office. The experimental effect of perceived standings was investigated in addition to the respondents' positions within the party, as well as their parties' former governing history, political orientation and size. Results show that, in the presence of the treatment condition (party is perceived to do well in the polls), the preference for policy over office is lessened. We find no experimental effect for vote versus office. These results advance our understanding of the dynamic aspects of party goals and coalition formation.     

Collaboration or competition? Experimental evidence for coalition heuristics

Does coalition formation have a causal effect on the perceived ideological distance between the coalition members? Observational research shows that voters typically think of parties that form a coalition government as more ideologically similar than those that do not, holding everything else constant. Their many qualities aside, the existing studies are not able to establish a causal relationship between coalition formation and changing perceptions. It is quite possible that voters are reacting to concurrent changes in parties' stated policy and not the coalition information itself. In this paper, I present two survey experiments that isolate the difference between telling voters that two parties can cooperate and telling them that they cannot. In both experiments, I find evidence supporting the theory of coalition heuristics.     

In the aftermath of disclosing child sexual abuse: consequences,needs, and wishes

Experiencing child sexual abuse (CSA) can have enormous consequences for the victims. However, reporting rates are comparably low. Thus, it is essential to consider the wishes and needs of disclosing CSA victims in order to develop measures that can improve the disclosure and reporting of CSA. We analysed data of a subsample of n?=?394 victims of contact CSA from a representative victim survey (N?=?11,428) conducted by the Criminological Research Institute of Lower Saxony, Germany, in 2011. Overall, 76% of the victims disclosed their CSA experience to somebody. However, only 14% of the cases were made known to law enforcement agencies. Of the disclosing victims, only one-third was believed and 43% reported that the disclosure led to no further consequences. Overall, being believed as well as supported by the victims’ family proved to be crucial. Implications are discussed against the background of previous research.     

论涉嫌犯罪现场勘查的法律性质

涉嫌犯罪现场勘查的法律性质与实现我国打击犯罪和保障人权的刑事诉讼目的密切相关。由于所处的诉讼阶段不同,涉嫌犯罪现场勘查具有双重法律性质。立案前公安机关所进行的涉嫌犯罪现场勘查,是立案前的一般审查措施,而非法定意义上的侦查。立案后公安机关所进行的涉嫌犯罪现场勘查,属于侦查阶段中侦查行为的一部分,是法定意义上的侦查。     

第三期中国妇女社会地位调查主要数据报告

以2010年12月1日为标准时点,全国妇联和国家统计局联合组织实施第三期中国妇女社会地位调查。本报告在全国数据初步分析的基础上,从10个方面描述了当前中国妇女社会地位的总体状况和5个典型群体的主要情况,提炼归纳了八大进步和6个值得关注的问题与挑战,并提出了相应的对策建议。