First Steps Towards Hearts and Minds? USAID's Countering Violent Extremism Policies in Africa

The United States government has adopted new approaches to counter violent extremist organizations around the world. “Soft security” and development programs include focused educational training for groups vulnerable to terrorist recruitment, norm messaging through local radio programming, and job creation in rural communities. This article evaluates the effectiveness of one set of these multi-vectored, community-level programs through data from 200 respondents in two similar, neighboring towns in northern Mali, Africa. The data show that residents in Timbuktu who were exposed to the programming for up to five years displayed measurably altered civic behavior and listening patterns in comparison with their counterparts in the control town of Diré, which had no programming (controlling for potential covariates including age, ethnicity, and political and socioeconomic conditions). However, there was little measurable difference between the groups in terms of their cultural identities and attitudes towards the West. While this study is unable to definitively prove a causal connection between programming and behavioral outcomes, it nonetheless strongly suggests that the process of “winning hearts and minds” can be effective at certain levels but may require extended time and dedicated resources to generate higher-level results.     

A Theory of Terrorist Leadership (and its Consequences for Leadership Targeting)

States often target terrorist leaders with the belief that the leader's death or capture will cause the terrorist organization to collapse. Yet the history of this strategy of “leadership targeting” provides a mixed record—for every example of effectiveness, there are similar examples of ineffectiveness. The central question of this article is: what makes a terrorist leader important? Specifically, what does a terrorist leader do that no one else can do (or do as well) for the organization? To answer this question, I develop a theory of terrorist leadership that argues that leaders might potentially perform two main functions: they can provide inspiration and/or operational direction (or not for both). I also theorize as to how and why the provision of these functions changes over time as the organization itself changes. The consequences for leadership targeting flow naturally from this theory—when leaders provide these functions to the organization, leadership targeting is most likely to be effective. Case studies of Algeria, Peru, and Japan offer insights into why some cases of leadership targeting were effective and why others were not. The conclusion extends this model with an analysis of al-Qaeda's prospects after the death of bin Laden.     

The Collective Nature of Lone Wolf Terrorism: Anders Behring Breivik and the Anti-Islamic Social Movement

Anders Behring Breivik, a lone wolf terrorist, killed 77 people in two terrorist attacks in Norway in 2011. This study uses framing theory from social movement studies to compare his Manifesto with the rhetoric of the anti-Islamic movement that inspired him. The anti-Islamic movement has a dual, and sometimes inconsistent, collective action framing. On the one hand, they portray Islam as an existential threat to the West and a warlike enemy; on the other, they promote peaceful and democratic opposition. The potential for radicalization is thus immanent. This case study reveals the importance of seeing lone wolf terrorists as acting from rhetoric embedded in larger social movements. It further demonstrates, in detail, the subtle and complex ways in which political narratives rejecting terrorism and political violence still end up inspiring such acts.     

Saudi-Palestinian Relations During the Run-Up to and the Aftermath of Black September

The Black September events in Jordan in 1970 are an example of the conflict the Palestinian issue presented for monarchic regimes. On the one hand, wealthy regimes such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait wanted to assist the Palestinians in their struggle against Israel, but on the other hand, the moment they understood that siding with the Palestinians could weaken their regimes, they renounced their support. This article, therefore, emphasizes the importance the monarchic regimes in the Persian Gulf attributed to their own stability, and the influence that issue had on their policies within the Arab world.     

参与式发展的迷思——云南省三个少数民族社区项目的个案研究

参与式是发展理论中新近被承认的正统理论,通过对云南三个少数民族社区项目的个案研究,揭示参与式概念泛化所导致的参与式发展的重重迷思,文章认为不应把参与式发展与国家干预对立起来,外部环境的改善为社区参与式发展提供有力保证。     

反恐背景下美国监视和情报制度的新发展——以《爱国者法》标题Ⅱ下的条款为分析对象

9.11事件后,美国政府吸取因国家监视和情报系统缺乏合作以及无能力、无效率等缺陷而造成重大损失的教训,以制定《爱国者法》的方式对之进行作了重大改革:打破执法机关与情报收集机关之间的信息壁垒,改变监视和情报收集体制的分立状态;建立起适用于互联网时代的监视和情报收集制度;扩大行政机关监视和情报收集的自由裁量权,以满足应对恐怖主义威胁的新需要。美国政府对监视和情报制度的改革增强了其在互联网时代预防和应对恐怖主义的能力,也将为当下中国反恐立法中相关内容的设计提供了重要的参考价值。     

Policy Forum: Studying Eyewitness Investigations in the Field

This article considers methodological issues arising from recent efforts to provide field tests of eyewitness identification procedures. We focus in particular on a field study (Mecklenburg 2006) that examined the “double blind, sequential” technique, and consider the implications of an acknowledged methodological confound in the study. We explain why the confound has severe consequences for assessing the real-world implications of this study.     

Forensic utility of the mitochondrial hypervariable region 1 of domestic dogs, in conjunction with breed and geographic information

The 608-bp hypervariable region 1 (HV1) sequences from 36 local dogs were analyzed to characterize the population genetic structure of canid mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Sixteen haplotypes were identified. A 417-bp segment of this sequence was compared with GenBank sequences from a geographically representative sample of 201 dogs, two coyotes, and two wolves. Sixty-six haplotypes were identified including 62 found only in domestic dogs. Fourteen of these correspond to the 16 local haplotypes and were among the most frequent haplotypes. The local sample was judged to be representative of the much broader geographic sample. No correlation was observed between local haplotypes and the owner's characterization of dog breed. A 60-bp variation "hotspot" within the canid HV1 was identified as a potentially valuable molecular tool, particularly for assaying limited or degraded DNA samples.     

非法持有宣扬恐怖主义、极端主义物品罪的规范限缩

持有行为入罪的正当性原理是行为对法益的抽象性危险。《刑法修正案(九)》设立的"宣扬恐怖主义、极端主义物品罪"不满足持有型犯罪的基本特征:"持有行为与实害结果的密接性",存在对法益保护原则稀释。究其原因,在于宏大反恐背景下对于安全价值的过度倾斜。罪状中规范性构成要件要素含义不明确以及本罪的"恐怖主义活动"属性,导致了实然上规制范围的非理性扩张和制裁程度的加重。基于法教义学的叙事逻辑,在我国现实的刑事立法下,理应对本罪的处罚边界进行规范性限缩,具体路径包括:构成要件要素的规范解释、"正当目的"的出罪机制以及"最后适用性"的潜在限制。