多点连环式恐怖袭击的防范策略

多点连环式恐怖袭击的袭击目标多、影响范围大,是需要加以重视的一种恐怖袭击类型。通过对GTD数据进行统计分析,指出该类恐怖袭击发案区域广泛主要聚焦于中东和北非等地区,其特点是目标明确、多为团伙作案且使用炸弹袭击方式。文章结合“蜂巢分析法”分析作案模式,总结发案原因,提出加强安防能力、完善情报工作流程的工作措施,以供实战部门进行针对性防控。     

城市恐怖主义防范的国外经验与中国借鉴

城市恐怖主义是中外恐怖主义犯罪的基本现象,是世界各国关注的重点。目前,中国恐怖主义犯罪正在抬头,欧美国家在城市恐怖主义防范方面的经验和教训是形成中国城市反恐策略体系的重要经验来源,及时借鉴可以让我国的反恐工作避免走弯路。从欧美国家的经验来看,城市恐怖主义难以防范主要有两个原因:安保战线过长和防范心理的松懈。针对我国未来城市反恐的建议有二:一是尽快完成反恐法立法,二是重视各部门之间的协作配合。     

Political crises,strategic choices,and terrorism: The rise and fall of the Uruguayan Tupamaros

In this article we offer a first attempt at providing a set of universal grading criteria for determining on what basis, and how far, an item of discursive content can be considered “terroristic.” In doing so, we draw loosely on the existing COPINE scale for child abuse images. The scale described in the article is not intended to reflect actual risk of engagement in terrorist violence, nor is it intended to have evidential validity in relation to offenses in certain jurisdictions relating to “terrorist publications.” Rather, by formalising assumptions which seem already to be latent in the literature on terrorist use of the Internet, it aspires to serve as a starting point for a more methodologically coherent approach to relationships between content—particularly online content—and terrorism.     

Religious Rage: A Quantitative Analysis of the Intensity of Religious Conflicts

ABSTRACT

The conventional wisdom that religious conflicts are more intense than other types of conflicts is tested in this study using a cross-sectional time series analysis. The statistical test evaluates the intensity of 278 territorial conflict phases in the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway (PRIO) Armed Conflict Dataset. The results indicate support for the assumption that religious conflicts are more intense than other types of conflicts; however, the relationship disappears when the relevance of religion is taken into account. Furthermore, this study evaluates the relationship of conflict intensity with the type of religion involved in the conflict and determines that no religion exhibits a significantly higher or lower intensity than the others.     

The Internet: A Virtual Training Camp?

This study aims to investigate how Al Qaeda uses the Internet for military training and preparation. What kind of training material is available on jihadi webpages, who produces it, and for what purpose? The article argues that in spite of a vast amount of training-related literature online, there have been few organized efforts by Al Qaeda to train their followers by way of the Internet. The Internet is per today not a “virtual training camp” organized from above, but rather a resource bank maintained and accessed largely by self-radicalized sympathizers.     

George Michael. The Enemy of My Enemy. The Alarming Convergence of Militant Islam and the Extreme Right

This article presents an empirical analysis of a unique dataset of 1240 former members of the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA). We highlight the shifting sociological and operational profile of PIRA's cadre, and highlight these dynamics in conjunction with primary PIRA documents and secondary interview sources. The effect of these changes in terms of the scale and intensity of PIRA violence is also considered. Although this is primarily a study of a disbanded violent organization, it contains broad policy implications beyond the contemporary violence of dissident movements in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. We conclude with a consideration of how a shifting sociological profile impacts upon group effectiveness, resilience, homogeneity, and the turn toward peaceful means of contention.     

Terrorist Incidents in India, 1998–2004: A Quantitative Analysis of Fatality Rates

Using data from the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database II, this paper first provides information on the nature of terrorist incidents in India in the period 1998-2004: the Indian states that were worst affected by terrorist incidents and fatalities; the terrorist groups responsible for such incidents and their modus operandi. Next, the paper focuses on the issue of fatalities from terrorist incidents. It inquires into the extent to which the number of fatalities following an incident was influenced by the type of attack (bombings, armed assault, etc.) and the extent to which it was influenced by the type of terrorist group. By examining the number of fatalities resulting from terrorist attacks in India, the paper disentangles the influence on this number of attack type and attack group. Lastly, the paper applies Atkinson's concept of equality-adjusted income to terrorism to arrive at the concept of equality-adjusted deaths from terrorist incidents: in order to avoid spectacular incidents resulting in the loss of a large number of lives—as in New York on September 11, 2001 and in Mumbai 26–29 November 2008—“society” might be prepared to tolerate “low-grade” terrorism which resulted in a larger number of deaths in total but avoided a large number of deaths from a single iconic incident.     

What Is a Terrorist Group? Conceptual Issues and Empirical Implications

Researchers increasingly conduct quantitative studies of terrorist groups, which is an important advance in the literature. However, there has been little discussion of what constitutes a “terrorist group,” regarding conceptualization or measurement. Many studies of terrorist groups do not define the term, and among those that do, definitions vary considerably. The lack of clarity leads to conceptual confusion as well as sample selection issues, which can affect inferences. To address these issues, this article offers an in-depth analysis of the term and its use. It explores definitions in the literature, and then discusses different samples used. Empirically, the article demonstrates how sample selection can affect variable values. It also shows that a non-representative sample, such as the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization list, can lead to inaccurate generalizations. Ultimately, I present a straightforward “inclusive” definition, and argue for its practicality. Other suggestions are made for a more effective and cohesive research program.     

Middle Eastern terrorism in Europe: Trends and prospects

Abstract

Europe has been the preferred operational area for Middle Eastern terrorist groups—some 418 attacks from 1980–1989. Unlike European Marxist revolutionary or separatist terrorist groups, the Middle Eastern groups present Europe with a regional security problem. The most dangerous element in this Middle Eastern terrorist threat is the state‐sponsored activities of Iran, Libya, Syria, and Iraq. These countries provided the fuel for a decade of Middle Eastern terrorist bloodshed in Europe. Given the problems of solving the various political conflicts and feuds in the Middle East and the continuing attractiveness of Europe as a substitute battlefield for Middle Eastern terrorist elements, the threat of Middle Eastern terrorist activity in Europe should continue into the 1990s.     

恐怖活动犯罪刑事立法探讨

我国《刑法》及《刑法修正案 (三 )》规定了有关的恐怖活动犯罪 ,但对恐怖犯罪的刑法调控过于简略 ;在追诉恐怖犯罪的刑事诉讼程序上也无相应对策。建议立法机关采取实体和程序合而为一的混合式结构 ,制定反恐怖犯罪的特别刑事法律 ;在实体上增设相关罪名 ,明确规定恐怖活动犯罪的范围 ,完善刑罚种类 ,规定特殊从重、减轻或免刑事由 ;在程序上完善管辖制度 ,赋予新的证据调查手段 ,采取特殊的刑事强制措施 ,强化对证人的保护机制。