美国国内恐怖袭击新态势与原因探析

特朗普政府延续奥巴马政府后期的反恐战略,采取国际"收缩"战略,把反恐重点转移到国内,但美国国内恐怖袭击不仅没有减少反而急遽增加.依据全球恐怖主义数据库(GTD)关于美国国内恐怖袭击的数据分析,当前美国国内恐怖袭击呈现出"独狼式""无领袖"和"分散化"的特点,总体上恐袭频率加快、烈度增强.具体表现在:种族极端主义恐袭日益...     

恐怖犯罪的犯罪经济学分析

犯罪经济学的理论认为,人的犯罪行为同其他行为一样。是在理性的指导下进行的,都是得失关系和效用理性选择的结果,恐怖犯罪的犯罪嫌疑人也是在综合分析该行为的成本收益之后才实施恐怖犯罪的。恐怖犯罪的成本包括：时间机会成本;惩罚成本;物质成本。恐怖犯罪收益是指从犯罪活动中所获得的利益,可以是精神的。也可以是物质的。在恐怖犯罪中,一般是为了获取经济收益以达到其政治目的。犯罪人之所以选择恐怖．其根本原因就是恐怖主义可以得到经济以及政治上的“暴利”。     

Contributors

Abstract

Socioeconomic data supplied by the FBI on the backgrounds of 280 known right‐ and left‐wing terrorists active in the United States during the late 1960s and early 1970s was tabulated. Isolating for right‐left affiliation, membership status, and gender, seven variables were examined and used to confirm prevailing assumptions regarding the socioeconomic status of right‐ versus left‐wing terrorists active during this period. Findings support clear socioeconomic differences between right‐wing and left‐wing terrorists and emphasize the dominant position of women within left‐wing organizations. Surprising evidence revealed that considerable class differences exist within right‐wing groups between rank‐and‐file members and the leadership core.     

论犯罪学的恐怖犯罪概念

“恐怖主义”、“暴力恐怖犯罪”等概念不应是犯罪学研究的概念范畴 ,“恐怖犯罪”概念才能更准确地体现犯罪学的学科特点。在这个概念体系下 ,恐怖犯罪的内涵既不同于恐怖主义 ,也不同于刑法上的恐怖活动 ;它与一般暴力犯罪的区别在于犯罪目标的不确定性和制造出了恐怖心理或恐怖气氛 ;恐怖犯罪的目的可以是多元化的 ,政治性不是恐怖犯罪的本质特征 ;恐怖犯罪既可以是集团、组织、团体实施的 ,也可以是个人实施的。     

What's left after right-wing extremism? The effects on political orientation

Does radical right political violence favour or hinder public support for right-wing stances? Numerous existing studies have demonstrated that Islamic terrorism provokes a conservative shift, increases nationalism and induces negative sentiments towards immigration. However, little is known about the consequences of far-right terrorism, despite its incidence in Western societies. We leverage four waves of the British Election Study (BES) and use a quasi-experimental design to analyse individual political orientations shortly before and after terrorist attacks. We find that respondents distance themselves from the ideology associated with the perpetrator and shift away from ideological positions at the right end of the political spectrum. Furthermore, respondents are less likely to report nationalistic attitudes and immigration skepticism, core tenets of extremist right-wing political ideologies. Our findings suggest that the characteristics of the perpetrators and their driving goals are crucial factors shaping the impact of terrorism on public sentiments.     

Islam and Attitudes toward U.S. Policy in the Middle East: Evidence from Survey Research in Lebanon

This study examines the impact of religious orientation on attitudes toward U.S. Middle Eastern policy among Muslim Lebanese. The data came from a stratified random sample, consisting of 262 Sunni and Shi'i respondents of both genders, conducted in the Greater Beirut area during February and March of 2002. Consistent with the literature about Islamism, the present analysis reveals an empirical distinction between personal and political dimensions of religion in Lebanon. Specifically, support for political Islam is associated with unfavorable attitudes toward U.S. policy in the region, but personal religiosity is unrelated to attitudes toward foreign policy. The study findings contribute in clarifying the debate that has been raging since the September 11 attacks, pitting Islam against the West and associating Islam with political violence.     

Hitting the right target: EU and Security Council pursuit of terrorist financing

This article analyses one specific instance of the use of targeted sanctions to combat the financing of terrorism by the European Union on behalf of the United Nations Security Council. The case raised a number of issues involving the use of sanctions against non-state actors and provoked a legal challenge at the European Court of Justice. These European court cases have been portrayed as a challenge to the use of targeted sanctions by the Security Council to maintain international peace and security. The fundamental critique here is that targeted sanctions must adhere to due process and the rule of law in order to protect individual human rights.     

The Economic Cost of March 11: Measuring the Direct Economic Cost of the Terrorist Attack on March 11, 2004 in Madrid

This article attempts to measure the direct costs that the terrorist attacks of 3/11 had on the economy of the region of Madrid. The evaluation has been made applying conservative criteria, and the results obtained have to be considered as minimum. The result indicates that the terrorist attacks caused a loss of nearly 212 million euros to the regional economy of Madrid, equivalent to 0.16 percent of the regional GDP (0.03 of the national GDP). This confirms that the immediate economic dimension of a terrorist attack such as the one of 3/11—apart from human catastrophic consequences—is relatively low.     

文化融入策略与恐怖组织的认同

恐怖组织的认同构建过程可分为三个阶段：个体恐怖分子在群体中找到自我、组织内部同一性的构建以及组织一致对外的恐怖主义活动。在整个认同构建过程中,始终贯穿着恐怖组织内外群体文化融入策略选择的矛盾,具体表现为：第一阶段,潜在恐怖分子在主流文化中认同受挫,转而寻求加入恐怖组织。第二阶段,恐怖组织以自身所处的宗教文化为基础,构建其组织文化,并积极通过各种方式加深组织成员对这一文化的认同,但与此相对,恐怖组织外群体却很难认同其组织文化。第三阶段,恐怖组织内外群体文化融入策略选择的矛盾持续激化,最终导致恐怖组织采取一致对外的恐怖主义活动。通过“伊斯兰国”作为案例,对上述恐怖组织的认同过程进行分析后发现,“伊斯兰国”的“成功”是与其“成功”的文化融入策略密切相关,而其在阿富汗的受挫,在很大程度上也是由于文化融入策略“失当”所导致的,即“伊斯兰国”在阿富汗不但无力完成与塔利班的竞争,而且无法解决组织面临的跨文化冲突问题。因此,在打击“伊斯兰国”等暴恐极端势力时,关注文化融入策略的影响并有针对性地采取对策,具有重要意义和价值。