Experimental Effects of a Call-Center Disclaimer Regarding Confidentiality on Callers’ Willingness to Make Disclosures Related to Terrorism

ABSTRACT

Utilizing a sample drawn to represent the general U.S. population, the present study experimentally tested whether a call-center’s disclaimer regarding limits to caller confidentiality (i.e., that operators would be required to refer calls to law enforcement if callers were to discuss anyone who was a danger to themselves or others) affected disclosures related to a third party’s involvement with terrorist groups, gangs, or such party’s commission of assault and/or non-violent crimes.

Disclaimer type did not significantly affect the number of terrorism-related disclosures. Furthermore, it did not significantly affect either the number of gang-related disclosures or reports of assault. However, the law enforcement referral disclaimer/condition reduced the number of disclosures of non-violent crimes that were not directly related to terrorism, gangs, or assault, though its effect accounted for less than one percent of the variance between conditions. Additionally, disclaimer type did not significantly affect willingness to recommend the call-center, nor did that effect vary significantly by age or sex. Implications for the call-center’s role in addressing ideologically motivated violence (terrorism, violent extremism), as a form of secondary/targeted prevention, are discussed.     

Fueling the Fire: Violent Metaphors,Trait Aggression,and Support for Political Violence

The recent concurrence of violent political rhetoric and violence against political targets in the U.S. and abroad has raised public concern about the effects of language on citizens. Building from theoretical foundations in aggression research, I fielded two nationally representative survey experiments and a third local experiment preceding the 2010 midterm elections to investigate support for violence against political authority. Subjects were randomly assigned to view one of two forms of the same political advertisements. Across all three experiments, mild violent metaphors multiply support for political violence among aggressive citizens, especially among young adults. Aggressive personality traits also predict support for political violence in both national studies. This work identifies dynamic roots of violent political orientations and reveals for the first time surprising interactions between this elite discourse and personality traits in citizens.     

Demography and democracy: the impact of youth cohort size on democratic stability in the world

The traditional explanations for the survival of democratic systems mostly include economic and cultural variables. Only rarely has attention been given to the age structure of a society. This article introduces a hypothesis involving the ‘youth bulge’ concept popular in conflict studies. It is hypothesized that democratic countries with proportionally large male youth cohorts are more likely to become dictatorships than societies with a smaller share of young men. A causal link between demography and democracy is assumed to exist because young men are the protagonists of virtually all violent political action as well as political extremism with a potential to threaten democracy. Strong evidence supporting the hypothesis is found using data for 110 countries in the period from 1972–2009.     

Interpreting “Percent Black”

Abstract

Time series analysis is employed to assess the relationship between “percent Black” and violent crime in Washington D.C. over a 40-year period. Race-disaggregated violent crime arrest data are also examined. It is concluded that while there is some indication of a positive relationship between violent crime and “percent Black” over time, that relationship is not robust when disaggregated by race and crime type and may be limited to Black robbery offending. Further, it appears that “percent Black” may be serving as a proxy for other social problems. An exploration of possible correlates of racial disparity in violent arrests suggests that they are associated with a variety of factors, including social problems and their disparities.     

从边疆暴力事件看公安机关的预警与应急机制

我国目前正处在社会转型时期,近些年来发生的一系列严重打砸抢烧暴力犯罪事件和西藏、新疆少数民族分裂主义分子、极端非法宗教和恐怖势力制造的系列暴力犯罪活动,都在提醒我们应该重视公安机关的预警和应急机制。这是稳定社会治安,关系民族、民生和保护来之不易的改革开放大好局面的大是大非问题。公安机关是国家的一支武装力量,是维护社会稳定的主力军。因此公安机关建立一套完备有效的预警应急机制,充分分析预测各种可能存在的不安全因素,采取相应措施予以控制,对处置这类暴力事件和维护社会稳定具有重要作用。这在很大程度上可以化解矛盾冲突,减少暴力犯罪事件给人民生活和社会带来的严重危害,维护国家法律秩序,维护各民族团结,保护人民群众的根本利益。     

孙子战略观与21世纪预防犯罪战略

国际化暴力犯罪目前呈现新特点 ,表现在 :犯罪主体“四位一体”化 ,犯罪手段与局部战争手段相交织 ,犯罪侵害的客体泛化 ,犯罪不受国界、时空局限 ,犯罪手段更加残酷极端。借鉴《孙子兵法》的综合考虑国家安全的战略观 ,构思 2 1世纪国际暴力恐怖犯罪预防战略 ,应包括 :“不战而屈人之兵”的早期预防战略 ,“兵贵胜 ,不贵久”的快速反应战略 ,“威加于敌 ,则其交不得合”、“我专而敌分”的联合作战战略。     

RACE,CODE OF THE STREET,AND VIOLENT DELINQUENCY: A MULTILEVEL INVESTIGATION OF NEIGHBORHOOD STREET CULTURE AND INDIVIDUAL NORMS OF VIOLENCE*

The study outlined in this article drew on Elijah Anderson's (1999) code of the street perspective to examine the impact of neighborhood street culture on violent delinquency. Using data from more than 700 African American adolescents, we examined 1) whether neighborhood street culture predicts adolescent violence above and beyond an adolescent's own street code values and 2) whether neighborhood street culture moderates individual-level street code values on adolescent violence. Consistent with Anderson's hypotheses, neighborhood street culture significantly predicts violent delinquency independent of individual-level street code effects. Additionally, neighborhood street culture moderates individual-level street code values on violence in neighborhoods where the street culture is widespread. In particular, the effect of street code values on violence is enhanced in neighborhoods where the street culture is endorsed widely.     

Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000

This paper empirically assesses the effects of socio-economic and demographic variables on violent crime in the United States. Using national-level time-series data over the period 1960–2000, an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated for overall violent crime, murder, rape and assault. The results indicate that there is no long-run relationship among the examined variables, but significant short-run relationships hold. Imprisonment growth, income inequality, alcohol consumption, and racial composition of the male youth population are shown to influence the short-run behaviour of violent crime.     

IN AND OUT OF HARM'S WAY: VIOLENT VICTIMIZATION AND THE SOCIAL CAPITAL OF FICTIVE STREET FAMILIES*

Homeless youth establish a variety of relationships with people they meet on the street. These associations generate different levels of the intangible resources of trust, commitment, and reciprocity that contribute to a person's social capital. We argue that the relationships homeless youth describe as “street families” resemble the fictive kin common among people who have limited resources, and that these relationships are a greater source of social capital than are other associations. Social capital may improve access to many valued outcomes, including protections. Regression analyses of violent victimization support our argument, demonstrating that fictive street families keep youth out of harm's way more than do other street associations.     

Domestic Violence Victims Support Mandatory Reporting: For Others

Five states now have mandatory reporting laws when a victim of domestic violence is identified in a clinical setting, and many other states are considering such legislation. Advocates for battered women have frequently warned that abused women may not wish mandatory reporting laws. Published data derived from the opinions, wishes, and beliefs of women victims of domestic violence have been noticeably lacking. This study presents a preliminary study of 45 abused women. Results indicate that women victims overwhelmingly support mandatory reporting laws. In an apparent paradox, however, they were much less certain that mandatory reporting would have been helpful to them in their specific case.