“东突”民族分裂主义与暴力恐怖主义滋生与蔓延的成因分析

"东突"民族分裂主义与暴力恐怖主义滋生与蔓延的成因极其复杂。"双泛"思潮在新疆的传播和蔓延为滋生"东突"民族分裂主义提供了思想理论基础和精神支柱;宗教极端主义思想的不断传入,与"东突"民族分裂势力合流,使其转变为以民族分裂为目的的暴力恐怖势力;宗教管理的失控致使非法宗教活动猖獗,成为"东突"民族分裂与暴力恐怖分子不断滋生的土壤和温床;国际恐怖势力的积极扶持,使"东突"民族分裂势力迅速完成了由单纯的民族分裂势力向以民族分裂为目的的暴力恐怖势力的嬗变,并有恃无恐地从事分裂与恐怖活动;南疆部分地区相对贫困与能源资源十分丰富之间形成的巨大反差被"东突"分子所利用成为新时期滋生民族分裂恐怖分子的潜在诱因;现实政策的失误与"东突"分子的频出及分裂与暴力恐怖活动高发之间有着无形的联系。     

Overview of: “The Impact of Drug Market Pulling Levers Policing on Neighborhood Violence: An Evaluation of the High Point Drug Market Intervention”

Research Summary Pulling levers policing draws upon the focused deterrence framework, which has shown considerable promise when directed at youth, gun, and gang offenders. However, much less is known about the viability of pulling levers when applied to different contexts as well as to diverse groups of offenders. We examine the High Point (North Carolina) Drug Market Intervention (DMI), the first site to use pulling levers as a place-based policing approach to disrupt a series of open-air drug markets across the city. Eleven years of longitudinal data are analyzed by using difference-in-difference panel regression analyses combined with finite mixture estimation as a means to test for divergence in violent crime patterns. Several key, although inconsistent, findings are presented. First, we found a statistically significant reduction in violent offenses in specific high-crime places (i.e., high-trajectory census blocks) located across the different targeted neighborhoods compared with the remainder of High Point, and relative to comparable nontargeted areas. Second, the citywide violent crime rate actually increased after a series of interventions unfolded, which may suggest limitations with the approach. Finally, trend analyses indicated the strategy had different levels of violent crime impact throughout unique geographic contexts. Policy Implications Rather than arresting every offender identified as having participated in illicit drug trafficking across various geographic contexts within the city, officials in High Point decided to invite low-risk drug offenders to community notification sessions in order to change their perceived risk of punishment as well as to mobilize community members across the different targeted neighborhoods. The suggestive evidence of potential, although limited, violent crime impact illustrates that this type of policing strategy may hold considerable promise. This interpretation gains credence when considered with prior evaluations of the DMI approach that illustrated the potential for reducing drug-related crime and in light of reports of improved police–community relations. The inconsistent findings across all locations and the overall city increase in violent crime toward the end of the study period, however, raise several concerns when interpreting study results. Additionally, our findings suggest that further replications should include systematic problem-identification, process measures, and more precise research designs.     

Violence and Gangs: Gender Differences in Perceptions and Behavior

Most research on violence has focused on males, but recent studies indicatethat females are also involved in violent crimes. Few studies, to date,have examined whether different or similar models explain male and femaleinvolvement in violent behavior. In the current research, we examine therelative contribution of social bond, self-control and social learningconcepts to the explanation of male and female violent offending. We alsoexplore the unique contribution of gang membership, school environment andprior victimization to these explanatory models. Using a multisite sampleof eighth-grade students, we find that results of a Chow test indicate theneed for separate theoretical models. Despite some similarities, differentfactors account for male and female rates of violent behavior.     

我国新疆地区宗教极端主义、民族分裂主义犯罪成因分析

2 0世纪 80年代 ,伴随着宗教极端主义的泛滥 ,新疆地区民族分裂主义明显活跃起来 ,近 2 0年来他们更多地以宗教为掩护 ,利用宗教极端主义达到分裂的目的。民族分裂势力、宗教极端势力相互融合 ,通过暴力和非暴力手段 ,企图分裂新疆 ,建立所谓的“东突厥斯坦” ,同时 ,疯狂制造各种恐怖事件 ,严重危害了我国边疆地区的社会政治经济稳定和国家安全。本文对其犯罪成因作了分析。     

To change or not to change?: The effect of terminology on public support of countering violent extremism efforts

Within the counterterrorism field, the concept of countering violent extremism (CVE) has emerged as a potential non-punitive solution to address the threat of radicalization. Practitioners and scholars have raised several concerns regarding CVE strategies including concerns about the CVE terminology. Using a survey experiment, this article responds to this concern by empirically analyzing the impact of CVE terminology on public support for CVE initiatives in the United States. Although many local communities have dropped the CVE terminology, the results suggest that a change in terminology at the national scale is unnecessary.     

“Glory to Breivik!”: The Russian Far Right and the 2011 Norway Attacks

This article documents Anders Behring Breivik's reception on the Russian far Right, with a comparative view to Western Europe. On July 22, 2011, Breivik carried out two terrorist attacks in Norway, killing 77 people. Based on a variety of open sources, the article finds that Breivik has received much more open support in Russia than in Western Europe. I suggest there are three main reasons why Russia stands out. First, a weaker social stigma attached to Right-Wing extremism reduces the cost of publicly embracing Right-Wing terrorists. Second, higher levels of violence in Russian society increase desensitization and violence acceptance. Third, the embrace of Breivik fits into a vibrant tradition of iconizing Right-Wing militants on the Russian far Right. The article highlights Russia as a hotspot of Right-Wing extremist activism in Europe. It also provides insights that may prove useful in future comparative research on cross-national variation in Right-Wing violence and terrorism.     

Towards UN counter-terrorism operations?

The United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operation in Mali (MINUSMA) has become among the deadliest in UN history, suffering from attacks by violent extremists and terrorists. There are strong calls to give UN peacekeeping operations more robust mandates and equip them with the necessary capabilities, guidelines and training to be able to take on limited stabilisation and counter-terrorism tasks. This article conceptually develops UN counter-terrorism operations as a heuristic device, and compares this with the mandate and practices of MINUSMA. It examines the related implications of this development, and concludes that while there may be good practical as well as short-term political reasons for moving in this direction, the shift towards UN counter-terrorism operations will undermine the UN’s international legitimacy, its role as an impartial conflict arbiter, and its tools in the peace and security toolbox more broadly, such as UN peacekeeping operations and special political missions.     

LOCAL POLITICS AND VIOLENT CRIME IN U.S. CITIES*

Recent research has begun to examine the effects of politics on crime. However, few studies have considered how local political variation is likely to affect crime. Using insights from urban politics research, this paper develops and tests hypotheses regarding direct and conditional effects of local politics on violent crime in 958 cities in 1991. Results from negative binomial regression analyses show that violent crime rates vary by local political structures and the race of the mayor. In addition, the effects of structural factors such as poverty, unemployment, and female‐headed households on violent crime depend on local form of government and the number of unreformed local governmental structures. Implications for systemic social disorganization and institutional anomie theories are discussed.     

Intimate Homicide and the Provocation Defence – Endangering Women? R v. Smith

This case note considers the availability in the United Kingdom of the provocation defence in cases of intimate homicide in the context of the recent House of Lords decision in Rv. Smith [2000] 3 W.L.R. 654. The note argues that the expansion of the objective component of the defence to encompass the mental infirmities of individual defendants is dangerous for women. Although it has the potential to help some abused women who kill to use the defence, it has, at the same time, exposed women who are abused by sexually possessive, violent men to even greater danger. It is thus argued that the defence should be restricted in the way envisaged by the minority judgement of Lord Millett so that abused women will still be able to use the defence, but by anon-medical route. Alternatively, the defence should be abolished and defences which pose no risk of encompassing violent men should be developed to accommodate abused women. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.