浙南跨国移民潮的历史变迁

浙南跨国移民活动有着悠久的历史，其移民潮的兴衰变迁在中国华侨华人史中具有典型的代表意义。本文侧重于梳理历史上及当代浙南跨国移民潮的历史变迁，分析各阶段移民潮的成因及特点，在此基础上进一步分析当代浙南新移民潮的成因及其发展趋势，以期对中国华侨华人史研究、区域史研究以及当代侨务工作有所裨益。     

A Fifth Wave of Terrorism? The Emergence of Terrorist Semi-States

ABSTRACT

Drawing on Rapoport’s four waves thesis, this study asks whether the emergence of terrorist semi-states (TSS) in the 21st-century MENA region and Pakistan mean that we are seeing the beginning of a new (fifth) wave. We define a TSS as a rebel group that a) has control over portions of a weak state’s territory, maintaining governance there; b) but still launches terrorist attacks against third-party states. To be considered a fifth wave, the new terrorism phenomenon at hand must both fit Rapoport’s criteria of a wave (be global, have the same driving force) and also be significantly different from the prior wave. Clearly, the TSSs are different from the religious terror groups of the fourth wave in key respects: they prioritize territorial control, they engage in a much wider array of governance activities (not just social services), most of their victims have been members of the same religion—namely, Muslims (which suggests that they are driven more by the pursuit of power than by Jihad); and finally, their behavior (though not their statements) shows they have a local rather than a universal agenda. The main counter-argument is that TSSs are all Islamic and have so far not been exported globally.