“孟不印尼”合作倡议及其发展趋势

孟不印尼(BBIN)合作倡议是由印度发起的一个南亚东北部次区域合作倡议。目的是绕开长期被印巴矛盾拖累的南盟,通过在印度东部、孟加拉国、尼泊尔和不丹之间建立一个涉及公路、铁路、内河运输、航空和电力网络的次区域联通体系,推动南亚东部次区域一体化进程。目前,孟不印尼倡议的里程碑机动车协议已经达成但尚未完全生效。铁路联通协议开始讨论并已有前期收获,其他领域尚未进入正式谈判阶段。孟不印尼合作倡议体现了相关国家和地区对互联互通的渴望与要求,符合该地区的长远利益。印度试图借此解决其东北部的交通瓶颈问题,巩固其南亚交通枢纽的地位,并试图在更大地理范围内扩大印度的地缘优势。但是,这一倡议受到印度国家能力的限制以及与其他成员国之间复杂关系的影响。一方面,印度东部地区经济发展水平低下,不足以成为吸引周边国家的经济发动机。另一方面,BBIN国家经济发展水平相近,经济结构高度相似,经济互补性有限。成员国从BBIN倡议中获得的潜在收益,可能会不如预期,将挫伤相关国家的积极性。再加上资金保障不力、管理机制对接困难,BBIN的推进将会比较困难。     

布什政府对东盟的政策及其对中国的影响

本文总结了布什执政以来美国对东盟的政策,探讨了影响美国政策的因素,分析了美国对东盟政策的调整将对中国—东盟关系产生的影响。文章认为,“9.11”事件以后,美国的反恐战争为其重返东南亚提供了契机。布什政府调整了对这一地区的政策,改善或提升了与东盟国家的关系。然而,把东盟作为一个地区机制,美国还没有完整的战略。美国主要推进的是双边关系,其中以军事关系为重。美国政策对中国的影响是复杂的,在中美关系稳定的情况下,其负面影响在短期内不会太大。     

Re-emergence of Asia and the Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economy in Super Long Waves of Capitalist World Systems

ABSTRACT

After the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, we are facing the beginning of the end of the post-war capitalist world system. The 1920s was in the middle of the social, political and economic interregnum, a period of discontinuity in the social order, accompanied by widespread unrest, wars and power vacuums. In this article, that framework of the long and super long waves in the capitalist world systems is used to examine the recent interregnum that marks the re-emergence of Asia. Within the framework of the long and super long waves a new “flying geese” theory is built by incorporating the theory of dynamic industries with Akamatsu’s theory. In the 1980s, Japanese integral production architecture improved quality and productivity in the automobile and electrical machinery industries. In the 1990s, the USA’s open modular production architecture enabled China’s compressed industrialisation, and the China-centric Asian production network replaced the Japan-led Pacific Rim triangular trade regime. In the 2000s, the knowledge-and technology-intensive (KTI) industries have established themselves as the new dynamic industries. The USA is the leading country to develop KTI industries. China is catching up quickly and has leapfrogged Japan in KTI industries. In conclusion, it is argued that these changes mark an approaching second interregnum.     

试析2l世纪初印度的东南亚战略

从上个世纪90年代初开始,实行大国战略的印度就制定了初步的东南亚战略,进入21世纪以来,印度加大了推行东南亚战略的力度,在政治、经济、军事和安全等方面加强与东南亚国家的联系、交往与合作,为印度在亚太地区寻求更广阔的战略空间奠定了坚实的基础。     

国族塑造与族群认同——二战后东南亚民族国家建构中的华族身份认同变化

东南亚华族的身份认同问题是二战后东南亚民族国家建构中的一个焦点问题.在东南亚现代民族国家的民族整合过程中,华族的身份由"华侨"、"海外华人"转变为"华人",这不仅仅是称谓的改变,其中包含了对他们政治身份、文化身份的重新定位.本文描述了华人身份转变过程中所遇到的重重困难,并从民族国家建构的理念来分析其中的原因;结合冷战后中国与东南亚国家关系的变化,探讨全球化进程中东南亚华族身份认同的新变化.     

民主选举与社会分裂——东亚民主转型国家与地区的政治与政局

东亚民主转型国家和地区发生的社会分裂与其实行的民主制度之间存在较强的关联性。在经济发展不平衡、贫富差距大、民族国家意识淡泊及选举文化有欠成熟的情况下,参与选举的政治势力和社会群体倾向于将投票及相关活动视为扩大自身利益和削弱对方力量的机会,导致不同政治势力和社会群体之间的对立和冲突超出可控范围。     

From British subjects to Australian values: a citizenship-building approach to Australia–Asia relations

Australia–Asia relations are inextricably bound up with the development of notions of statehood and citizenship. The argument advanced here is that the way a state acts within the international community markedly determines how it relates to its own citizens. Here we suggest that the continuing and politically resonant idea of Australia as a ‘middle power’ is a crucial thread that links the international and national dimensions of citizenship building. From the very beginning of Federation, the contingent sovereignty of the new Australian Commonwealth in the imperial order became necessarily entangled with debate over national political institutions and citizenship building. Long after the end of the British Empire, the notion of middle power politics has determined the nature and shape of citizenship building. These statecraft projects of ‘citizenship building’ are profoundly shaped, determined and reinforced by the institutions and policies of regional engagement. We explore this framework through three critical junctures of domestic and external policy: 1. the emergence of dominion status on the basis of a common racial and cultural identity within the empire in the first half of the century;

2. the developing notion of a good international citizen during the Hawke and Keating period;

3. the invocation of Australian values by John Howard.

     

The role of non-timber forest products in poverty reduction in India: prospects and problems

The vast natural resources of India's forests, including non-timber forest products (NTFPs), such as medicinal and aromatic plants, leaves, fruits, seeds, resins, gums, bamboos, and canes, offer employment that provides up to half the income of about 25 per cent of the country's rural labour force. However, poor harvesting practices and over-exploitation in the face of increasing market demand are threatening the sustainability of these resources, and thus the livelihoods of forest-dependent tribal communities. This article analyses the role of NTFPs in livelihoods-improvement initiatives and considers recent initiatives intended to enhance their conservation and sustainable management. It recommends policies to optimise the potential of NTFPs, both to support rural livelihoods and to contribute to India's social, economic, and environmental well-being.     

Integrating participatory elements into conventional research projects: measuring the costs and benefits

Until recently, participatory and conventional approaches to agricultural research have been regarded as more or less antagonistic. This article presents evidence from three sub-projects of a Thai–Vietnamese–German collaborative research programme on ‘Sustainable Land Use and Rural Development in Mountainous Regions of Southeast Asia’, in which participatory elements were successfully integrated into conventional agricultural research as add-on activities. In all three sub-projects the costs of studying local knowledge or enhancing farmers' experimentation consisted of additional local personnel, opportunity costs of participating farmers' time, and travel costs. However, these participatory elements of the research projects constituted only a small fraction of the total costs. It may be concluded that conventional agricultural research can be complemented by participatory components in a cost-effective way, while producing meaningful benefits in terms of creating synergies by blending scientific and local knowledge, scaling up micro-level data, and highlighting farmers' constraints affecting technology adoption.     

东北老工业基地振兴与东北亚区域合作

东北老工业基地在中国经济发展过程中做出了重要贡献。改革开放以后 ,东北老工业基地被边缘化了。充分利用有利的国外市场和资源对于振兴东北老工业基地具有十分重要的意义。把中国东北的发展置于东北亚区域内 ,有利于东北地区在开放的环境中获得振兴和发展。同时 ,中国东北地区的振兴也为周边国家的发展提供了机会 ,能够进一步促进东北亚区域经济合作的发展。