The traders of Central Bazaar,Astana: motivation and networks

ABSTRACT

Trading in Astana’s Central Bazaar rests on mutually beneficial people-to-people contacts, or personal networks. Twenty-five years after the Soviet collapse, personal networks are pivotal in whether one succeeds in an informal market economy. I argue that networks cannot be disassociated from trader motivation, which serves as a measure of how these networks evolve over time. I describe how those traders who were driven primarily by lifting themselves out of economic precarity tended to build strong social networks; these strong social networks sometimes evolved into ‘unconditional’ social networks, by which I mean a trader supporting others even though doing so has no commercial benefit. At the other extreme were traders driven by ambition and goal attainment. I argue that such traders are less likely to establish and maintain social networks. Between these two extremes is a middle ground, where traders alternate between strong and weak social networks.     

Political Science and Prediction: What's Next for U.S. Climate Change Policy?

This article analyzes how U.S. climate change politics and policy making are changing in the public, private and civil society sectors, and how such changes are likely to influence U.S. federal policies. It outlines the current status of U.S. climate change action and explores four overlapping pathways of policy change: (1) the strategic demonstration of the feasibility of climate change action; (2) the creation and expansion of markets; (3) policy diffusion and learning; and (4) the creation and promulgation of norms about the need for more aggressive climate change action. These four pathways seek to fruitfully draw from rationalist and constructivist approaches to policy analysis, without collapsing or confusing the different logics. Building on this analysis, it predicts that future federal U.S. climate policy will include six major components: (1) A national cap on GHG emissions; (2) A national market based cap‐and‐trade GHG emissions trading scheme; (3) Mandatory renewable energy portfolio standards; (4) Increased national product standards for energy efficiency; (5) Increased vehicle fleet energy efficiency standards; and (6) Increased federal incentives for research and development on energy efficiency issues and renewable energy development. In addition, expanding federal climate policy may bring about significant changes in U.S. foreign policy as U.S. international re‐engagement on climate change is likely to occur only after the development of more significant federal policy.     

Extraction of the relevant population from a forensic database

Evaluation of forensic evidence using Bayesian statistics requires the formulation of hypotheses. Many hypotheses, especially those presenting the defence viewpoint imply that traces can be attributed to an arbitrary member of a relevant population. The exact items or persons that comprise the relevant population may vary from case to case. Therefore, the statistical evaluation of evidential value based on databases cannot make use of a fixed set of items or persons. In the current paper, methodology is presented to filter the contents of a database such that only items that are considered relevant are selected. Six scenarios, including those related to fibre, textile, and glass evidence are described, together with the hypotheses and relevant populations that may be evaluated by an expert. In addition, we show how items representing the defined relevant population can be extracted from a database using SQL code. Images of the items in the (filtered) relevant population provide an overview of the selected items and hence direct feedback to the examiner. In this way, erroneous codes or unwanted side effects can be identified and corrected. It is concluded that the filtering procedure is effective in cases where the relevant population is demarcated accurately.     

Governance through global networks and corporate signaling

This article exposes a new form of global governance based on an emergent network of corporate social responsibility (CSR) schemes. Our study is the first to uncover the network structure of this system, based on a dataset that includes 61 transnational CSR schemes and 31,987 firms. We demonstrate that the network exhibits a significant level of cohesiveness, despite having evolved without any form of hierarchical control. Drawing on a social network analysis, we find a positive correlation among the sustainability performance of the firms, their membership in CSR schemes, and their network characteristics. We show that membership in multiple schemes and the firms’ position in the CSR‐schemes network constitute credible predictors of their sustainability performance, generating a separating equilibrium that distinguishes high from low CSR performers. We develop a model that explains the effectiveness of the CSR‐schemes network based on the synergistic properties of the network and on a distinctive signaling dynamic. Our findings highlight the potential contribution of CSR to the resolution of global governance dilemmas.     

Aging in rural areas of Spain: the influence of demography on care strategies

In the rural areas of Spain the aging population trend is particularly acute, and these regions are also characterized by high sex ratios. These are the demographic consequences of an intense rural exodus that started in 1950. This paper addresses the strategies that families from these areas have put in place to guarantee care for the elderly in these limited demographic contexts. It quantifies the demographic change from 1910 to 2010 and analyzes current mechanisms for organizing social care. The methodology includes semi-structured interviews and secondary information obtained from censuses. The results show the emergence of new care strategies, the diversification of social agents involved in care, and the transformation of traditional gender relations. All these changes are conceptualized as social adaptation strategies that increase resilience in rural areas.     

Legislators,organizations and ties: Understanding interest group recognition in the European Parliament

What explains Members of European Parliament's (MEPs’) decisions to recognize some interest groups as relevant policy actors? Addressing this question is fundamental for understanding the role of political elites in shaping patterns of interest representation and interest groups’ role in legislative decision making. Building on theories of legislative behaviour and informational theories of legislative lobbying, we argue that MEPs give recognition to those organizations that are instrumental for achieving key political goals: re-election, career-progression and policy influence. The pursuit of these goals generates different patterns of MEP recognition of interest groups. We contribute to the literature in three ways. Conceptually, we propose interest group recognition as a key concept for understanding interactions and links between legislative and non-legislative actors. We illustrate the high conceptual relevance of recognition for interest groups research while noting its conspicuous neglect in the literature. We address this gap and place the concept central stage in understanding legislators’ attention to and behaviour towards interest organizations. Theoretically, we build on a classic framework explaining legislators’ behaviour and refine it through the lenses of informational theories of legislative lobbying. We argue and show that legislators recognize organizations that enhance electoral prospects in their home Member States, and that legislator–group ideological proximity and an interest group's prominence in a specific policy field affect MEPs’ decisions to recognize some organizations as relevant actors. Our argument acknowledges the importance of the broader context in which MEPs operate and pays attention to how they react to and interact with it. Empirically, we propose an original and innovative research design to identify and measure recognition with the help of social media data. Our measurement strategy constitutes a significant improvement insofar that it reduces the challenges of measurement bias usually associated with self-reported data generated through interviews, surveys, or the textual analysis of newspaper articles and official documents. Our research design allows using fine-grained measures of key dependent and explanatory variables and offers the very first analysis of MEP interest group recognition that holds across decision-making events and policy areas. We test our argument on a new dataset with 4 million observations recording the recognition of more than 7,000 organizations by 80 per cent of MEPs serving in EP8. We find that MEPs are more likely to recognize organizations from their Member State, particularly under flexible- and open-list electoral institutions. MEPs are also more likely to recognize organizations that share their ideological affinities and are prominent actors in policy areas legislators specialize in.     

Rule-takers,rule-makers,or rule-promoters? Turkey and Mexico's role as rising middle powers in global economic governance

Rising middle powers play increasingly active international roles, yet so far we lack systematic analyses of their aspirations and impact on global economic governance. This paper addresses this gap. I argue that the role that rising middle powers assume in global economic governance depends on the degree of alignment of their regulatory preferences with those of established powers, and on the strength of their regulatory institutions. If their preferences are aligned and they develop high regulatory capacity in an issue area, they will aspire to promote existing global rules in their own region. They will engage in regional rule-promotion because of growing economic ties to their region, and also because their regulatory agencies are socialized into these rules within transgovernmental networks. I explore these arguments empirically through case studies of two rising middle powers, Turkey and Mexico, in the global governance of competition law and policy.     

Inferring ethnicity using 15 autosomal STR loci—Comparisons among populations of similar and distinctly different physical traits

The forensic utility of short tandem repeat (STR) polymorphisms for ethnic inference (EI) has recently received limited attention from the research community. The large volume of population specific STR data available from public literature affords us the opportunity to assess the reliability of EIs based on STR profiles, and present significant results. We applied a binary Bayesian approach using 15 autosomal STR loci from computer-simulated and real STR profiles of Han Chinese, Japanese, Korean, American Caucasian, and a South Asian Indian aboriginal tribal group called Lodha. A correct classification rate of ≥90% was achieved via simulation for each East Asian group (Han Chinese, Japanese, and Korean) when paired with the American Caucasian or the tribal Indian group. Similar result was obtained between the Caucasian and the Indian group, while the correct classification rates among the three East Asian groups were much lower (70%). Results based on real profiles closely matched those achieved via simulation, establishing the credibility of our classifier performance metrics. This study shows that binary Bayesian classifier performed best for ethnic groups with distinctly different physical traits. This observation might be due to accidental differences caused by bottlenecks, genetic drift, etc. However, it could also be taken as an indication that STRs, commonly referred to as “junk” DNA, may have an effect on phenotype, a possibility that warrants further research.