Illicit arms trafficking and the limits of rational choice theory: the case of the Balkans

Organized crime is often conceptualized as a business enterprise formed by actors motivated by profits. The Balkans represents an ideal case for testing the extent to which assumptions about the image of actors involved in illegal arms trading can be extrapolated to the macro-level of analysis. Focusing mainly on public discourse, this paper points to several thematic categories of illicit arms trafficking: i) profit-oriented arms trafficking involving organized crime groups ii) trafficking of arms for the purpose of arming criminal-terrorist formations and iii) state-sponsored illegal arms trafficking. Although economic incentives appear strong in many cases, other cultural, social and political issues also frame the illicit arms market in the region. We argue that both understanding and policing organized crime should also embrace the non-economic nature of this type of criminal behavior.

信息网络传播权的适用靳学军

制定《世界知识产权组织版权公约》(WCT)第8条是为了将数字网络中的作品传播权纳入到著作权中。我国著作权法中信息网络传播权的立法目的与WCT第8条相同。不能脱离数字网络传播方式来理解“选定的时间和地点”要件。数字网络传播具有交互性,即在数字网络中,数字信号是否开始向某个特定用户传输由该用户“在其个人选定的时间和地点”决定。从文义解释出发,数字网络传播也应适用信息网络传播权。为弥补立法缺陷,可以删除“选定的时间和地点”要件,合并广播权,确立实至名归的信息网络传播权。     

Why did Argentina and Uruguay decide to pursue a carbon tax? Fiscal reforms and explicit carbon prices

Since 2014, carbon taxes have been spreading in South America. Counterintuitively, while they are primarily considered climate policies, their adoption has been largely driven by causes unrelated to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The carbon tax policymaking literature has overlooked the causes that trigger the causal mechanisms for adopting carbon taxes and has instead centered on parts of the causal mechanism. Focusing on the very beginning of the process, namely the causes triggering the decision to pursue carbon taxes in Argentina and Uruguay, this study both contributes to the carbon tax policymaking literature and to the burgeoning application of logical Bayesian analysis in qualitative studies. According to previous studies, the pursuit of carbon taxes inherently entails political challenges linked, among others, to its potential regressive impacts and effects on industries, which makes the sudden rise of carbon taxes in Argentina and Uruguay surprising. Based on 26 expert interviews and a desk review, the study applies a logical Bayesian analysis to study potential causes structured around mutually exclusive hypotheses consistent with the carbon tax policymaking literature. It shows that the causes for pursuing carbon taxes in Argentina and Uruguay are not primarily related to mitigation. Instead, Argentina conceived carbon taxation as part of a broader reform of its fiscal system, and Uruguay as a way to make explicit the already high implicit carbon price.     

Policy beliefs,policy learning,and risk perception: Exploring the formation of local creative Placemaking-catalyzed policy network

This article studies the formation of a local Creative Placemaking (CPM) policy network based on the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) and social capital perspective of policy networks. This article hypothesizes that policy beliefs, policy learning, social capital, and the perceived risks induced by defections, as well as macro-level changes in the broader political and socio-economic system, influence partner selection in the local CPM policy networks. The study collected survey data from policy actors participating in the Franklinton CPM-catalyzed revitalization project in Columbus, Ohio. An exponential random graph model (ERGM) was applied to test the hypotheses. The findings partially support the hypotheses: policy learning, certain secondary policy beliefs, and risk perceptions of changes in economic and political factors are correlated with tie formation. The reciprocity-driven bonding structure underlies the Franklinton CPM policy network, suggesting that policy actors perceive the Franklinton CPM policy network as a high-defection-risk network. This study has implications for policy makers in designing engagement strategies to better involve stakeholders holding different beliefs and occupying different network positions.     

Hypothesis Testing in the Bayesian Framework

While the Bayesian parameter estimation has gained a wider acknowledgement among political scientists, they seem to have less discussed the Bayesian version of hypothesis testing. This paper introduces two Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing: one based on estimated posterior distributions and the other based on Bayes factors. By using an example based on a linear regression model, I demonstrate similarities and differences not only between the null‐hypothesis significance tests and Bayesian hypothesis tests, but also those among two different Bayesian approaches, which are also critically discussed.     

What Is “Successful” Resettlement? Refugee Narratives From Regional New South Wales in Australia

This paper explores how people from refugee backgrounds experienced regional resettlement in New South Wales, Australia, by focusing on their narratives of determinants of “successful” resettlement. Semi-structured interviews with nine refugee participants in 2016 revealed challenges in relation to employment, social networks and relationships, and support services. While such challenges are consistent with research in metropolitan cities, there were limitations unique to the regional context. Resettlement policies have contradictory elements inherent to their design that can be detrimental to what refugees consider as successful resettlement. This has particular implications for more recent schemes like the Safe Haven Enterprise Visa (SHEV).     

Is Political Consulting Going Digital?

Every four years consultants all over the world look at American presidential elections trying to unveil new techniques that can be adopted in their own countries. In 2012 databases and metrics become the cornerstone for a successful campaign and therefore, there is a need for new professionals, and for a new way of approaching the profession. The campaign for the re-election of Obama residential is a turning point not only for political communications but also for political consulting: digital revolution will open doors for a new generation of consultants not only in the United States, but also in Europe and South America.     

Networks and labor market entry – a historical perspective

This paper discusses how recruitment practices have changed over time. Networks and contacts are more important today for labor market entry than was the case in the latter half of the twentieth century. There may be two explanations for this: the short-run explanation and the long-run explanation. The short-run explanation derives from fluctuations in unemployment. When unemployment is high, competition for every vacancy is tougher and networks become more important for the job seeker. This has been the case in Sweden since 1991, when unemployment increased to new levels not experienced since the 1930s. In the long run, there has been a change in recruitment practices due to institutional change. A clear pattern is that the importance of social networks has increased, while the significance of public institutions (i.e. the Public Employment Service) has decreased.     

The Invisible Hand? Critical Information Infrastructures,Commercialisation and National Security

Corporatisation of critical information infrastructure (CII) is rooted in the ‘privatisation wave’ of the 1980s-90s, when the ground was laid for outsourcing public utilities. Despite well-known risks relating to reliability, resilience, and accountability, commitment to efficiency imperatives have driven governments to outsource key public services and infrastructures. A recent illustrative case with enormous implications is the 2017 Swedish ICT scandal, where outsourcing of CII caused major security breaches. With the transfer of the Swedish Transport Agency’s ICT system to IBM and subcontractors, classified data and protected identities were made accessible to non-vetted foreign private employees – sensitive data could thus now be in anyone’s hands. This case clearly demonstrates accountability gaps that can arise in public-private governance of CII.     

The Backbone Structure of Audience Networks: A New Approach to Comparing Online News Consumption Across Countries

Measures of audience overlap between news sources give us information on the diversity of people’s media diets and the similarity of news outlets in terms of the audiences they share. This provides a way of addressing key questions like whether audiences are increasingly fragmented. In this article, we use audience overlap estimates to build networks that we then analyze to extract the backbone—that is, the overlapping ties that are statistically significant. We argue that the analysis of this backbone structure offers metrics that can be used to compare news consumption patterns across countries, between groups, and over time. Our analytical approach offers a new way of understanding audience structures that can enable more comparative research and, thus, more empirically grounded theoretical understandings of audience behavior in an increasingly digital media environment.