Information‐Theoretical Assessment of the Performance of Likelihood Ratio Computation Methods

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using, for example, Tippett plots. We propose empirical cross‐entropy (ECE) plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to information theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance with both Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criterion to determine whether a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.     

Adolescent Siblings’ Looking Glass Self-Orientations: Patterns of Liabilities and Associations with Parenting

A looking glass self-orientation refers to the tendency to incorporate the opinions of social partners to form a self-representation and approve of one’s self. These orientations were assessed for two adolescent siblings in 438 families with surveys accessed on-line. Younger (M = 11.6 years, SD = 1.8) and older (M = 14.3, SD = 2.1) siblings and their mothers (82.7% European-American) participated. The siblings shared similar orientations in relying on either classmates or the other sibling for approval, prior to self approval. Relying on classmate approval was significantly associated with adjustment and academic performance as reported by both the self and mothers. Siblings were also identified as sources of approval with implications for adjustment, but the magnitude of the associations with adjustment were lower. Comparisons of the older and younger siblings revealed that both groups were equally as liable to poor outcomes when reflecting the opinions of classmates or siblings. The results of SEM analyses implicate parenting characterized as coercive, rejecting, and chaotic in association with the tendency to rely on others for approval. A mediating role for looking glass self-orientations in associations between parenting and depressive symptoms, anxiety or academic performance was also found.

基层经侦工作机制“1+N”模式初探

基层经侦工作机制的有效延伸有助于提升经侦部门的整体作战效能,将会实现打击经济犯罪的法律效果与社会效果的统一,揭示经济犯罪的发案规律,从而为有效预防和精确打击经济犯罪奠定坚实的基础。针对目前基层经侦工作机制延伸中存在的经侦职能延伸不到位、经侦协作落实不到位、经侦基础工作不到位、经侦业务考核不到位、少数经侦民警综合素质不到位等问题,提出在基层经侦大队构建"1+N"模式,即"经侦大队+六室"延伸模式,强化基层经侦工作机制。在中心基层派出所、同级行政执法部门、大型商圈、大型企业、大队内部分别建立经侦工作室、协作室、咨询室、联络室、档案室、法制室等,实现经侦工作向基层、行政执法部门及商圈、企业等延伸。     

Evaluation of match criteria used for the comparison of refractive index of glass fragments

For comparative glass examinations, the refractive indices (RIs) of recovered glass fragments are often compared to a test interval defined by measurements from a broken glass object. RI measurements from five modern float glasses were used via resampling to assess the frequencies of false exclusion errors for eight test criteria as functions of the number of measurements. The test criteria were based on ranges, fixed intervals, and multiples of standard deviations of the known source measurements. The observed error rates for the eight tests studied are between zero and c. 35%, depending upon the match criteria, the number of measurements, and the RI distribution for a glass source. The results of this study can be used to predict the false exclusion rate for a test criterion under a given set of conditions or to select test criteria that result in a desired error rate for these typical sheet glasses.     

The Realization of Gender Quotas in Post-collapse Iceland

Gender quotas have become a way to increase women’s participation in leading positions in economic life. Iceland enacted corporate gender quotas in 2013, requiring a minimum of 40% of each gender. These quotas were legalized after the financial collapse in 2008, which many blamed on male dominance of the economy. The focus of this paper is the timeframe of the turn to quotas, and the media discourse and parliamentary debate regarding men and women in corporate management. Van Dijk’s theoretical framework of critical discourse analysis was employed to examine data from the period 2009–2015. Firstly, we studied 150 articles in three online newspapers: Morgunblaðið, Vísir, and Viðskiptablaðið, written between 2009 and 2015. Secondly, we examined 132 parliamentary documents in which gender quotas were proposed and debated in 2009 and 2010. Three themes were highlighted: gender difference and opportunities during critical times; women and capability; and changed discourse. In order to shed light on the struggle for women’s influence, we examine how the debate manifested the Wollstonecraft dilemma. The results show a tension between gender-neutral arguments versus arguments about women’s alleged special traits and qualifications. Arguments emphasizing the importance of women’s special capabilities for the well-being of society and companies’ profitability were at the heart of the quota legislation, and as such proved successful. However, the findings also demonstrate the risk that female candidates are viewed as a signal of change in times of crisis. Hence, we claim that arguments matter; although women-centred arguments have contributed to gender balance within the Icelandic economy, they may also create barriers for women because they support patriarchal relations. Furthermore, the results indicate that societal difficulties call for drastic changes, and it seems as though a tailwind is needed for women to receive opportunities within the economic sector to push gender equality forward.     

Glass Cliff or Glass Prison: Think Evil-Think Men in Organizational Leadership

Recent research suggests that women fail in leadership because men in one way or another target them and put them in unusual, difficult, and risky positions where chances for failure are high. The purpose of this article is to examine this argument based on its literature. The study also collects data from two waves of interviews with 62 women holding leadership positions in public and private sector organizations. The study finds that, while gender is the main theme in the glass cliff argument, the impact of other factors––such as jealousy, departmental politics, and self-interests––on women is inadequately examined. The study concludes that, because injustice in the workplace is oversimplified and reduced to a single factor (gender), the literature creates a glass prison that both confines women and reiterates stereotypical assumptions about women’s capabilities. The blaming and demonization of men therefore tends to have an alternative that has been neglected. Future research on women leadership should depart from the trap of genders, and engage in a wider examination of organizational, cultural, economic, political, psychological, and social factors. These factors shape not only the roles of women in leadership, but the entire the workplace.     

油浸法鉴别汽车后视镜玻璃的研究

目的研究油浸法对汽车后视镜玻璃的鉴别能力。方法应用油浸法对20种汽车后视镜玻璃进行折射率值测定并用t检验法对数据进行处理。结果在置信度为95％时，20个后视镜玻璃样品的区分率为97．9％。结论油浸法对汽车后视镜玻璃有很好的区分能力，而且使用样品量少，可以达到微克级，是一种鉴别后视镜玻璃的有效方法。     

Determination of Fracture Patterns in Glass and Glassy Polymers,

The study of fractures of glass, glassy‐type materials, and plastic has long been of interest to the forensic community. The focus of this interest has been the use of glass and polymer fractures to associate items of evidence under the assumption that each fracture is different. Generally, it is well‐accepted that deviations exist; however, the emphasis has been on classifying and predicting fracture rather than determining that each fracture is different. This study documented the controlled fracture patterns of 60 glass panes, 60 glass bottles, and 60 plastic tail light lens covers using both dynamic impact and static pressure methods under closely controlled conditions. Each pattern was intercompared, and based on the limited specimens tested in this study, the results illustrate that the fracture patterns are different. Further repetitive studies, under controlled conditions, will be needed to provide more statistical significance to the theory that each fracture forms a nonreproducible fracture pattern.     

A two-level model for evidence evaluation

A random effects model using two levels of hierarchical nesting has been applied to the calculation of a likelihood ratio as a solution to the problem of comparison between two sets of replicated multivariate continuous observations where it is unknown whether the sets of measurements shared a common origin. Replicate measurements from a population of such measurements allow the calculation of both within-group and between-group variances/covariances. The within-group distribution has been modelled assuming a Normal distribution, and the between-group distribution has been modelled using a kernel density estimation procedure. A graphical method of estimating the dependency structure among the variables has been used to reduce this highly multivariate problem to several problems of lower dimension. The approach was tested using a database comprising measurements of eight major elements from each of four fragments from each of 200 glass objects and found to perform well compared with previous approaches, achieving a 15.2% false-positive rate, and a 5.5% false-negative rate. The modelling was then applied to two examples of casework in which glass found at the scene of the criminal activity has been compared with that found in association with a suspect.     

Classification of Glass Fragments Based on Elemental Composition and Refractive Index*

Abstract: The aim of this study was to assess the efficiency of likelihood ratio (LR)‐based measures when they are applied to solving various classification problems for glass objects which are described by elemental composition, and refractive index (RI) values, and compare LR‐based methods to other classification methods such as support vector machines (SVM) and naïve Bayes classifiers (NBC). One hundred and fifty‐three glass objects (23 building windows, 25 bulbs, 32 car windows, 57 containers, and 16 headlamps) were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer. Refractive indices for building and car windows were measured before (RI_b), and after (RI_a) an annealing process. The proposed scheme for glass fragment(s) classification demonstrates some efficiency, although the classification of car windows (c) and building windows (w) must be treated carefully. This is because of their very similar elemental content. However, a combination of elemental content and information on the change in RI during annealing (ΔRI = RI_a?RI_b) gave very promising results. A LR model for the classification of glass fragments into use‐type categories for forensic purposes gives slightly higher misclassification rates than SVM and NBC. However, the observed differences between results obtained by all three approaches were very similar, especially when applied to the car window and building window classification problem. Therefore, the LR model can be recommended because of the ease of interpretation of LR‐based measures of certainty.