Quantitative evaluation of the results of digital forensic investigations: a review of progress

Unlike conventional forensics, digital forensics does not at present generally quantify the results of its investigations. It is suggested that digital forensics should aim to catch up with other forensic disciplines by using Bayesian and other numerical methodologies to quantify its investigations’ results. Assessing the plausibility of alternative hypotheses (or propositions, or claims) which explain how recovered digital evidence came to exist on a device could assist both the prosecution and the defence sides in criminal proceedings: helping the prosecution to decide whether to proceed to trial and helping defence lawyers to advise a defendant how to plead. This paper reviews some numerical approaches to the goal of quantifying the relative weights of individual items of digital evidence and the plausibility of hypotheses based on that evidence. The potential advantages enabling the construction of cost-effective digital forensic triage schemas are also outlined.

Key points

• The absence of quantified results from digital forensic investigations, unlike those of conventional forensics, is highlighted.
• A number of approaches towards quantitative evaluation of the results of digital forensic investigations are reviewed.
• The significant potential benefits accruing from such approaches are discussed.

     

Legislators,organizations and ties: Understanding interest group recognition in the European Parliament

What explains Members of European Parliament's (MEPs’) decisions to recognize some interest groups as relevant policy actors? Addressing this question is fundamental for understanding the role of political elites in shaping patterns of interest representation and interest groups’ role in legislative decision making. Building on theories of legislative behaviour and informational theories of legislative lobbying, we argue that MEPs give recognition to those organizations that are instrumental for achieving key political goals: re-election, career-progression and policy influence. The pursuit of these goals generates different patterns of MEP recognition of interest groups. We contribute to the literature in three ways. Conceptually, we propose interest group recognition as a key concept for understanding interactions and links between legislative and non-legislative actors. We illustrate the high conceptual relevance of recognition for interest groups research while noting its conspicuous neglect in the literature. We address this gap and place the concept central stage in understanding legislators’ attention to and behaviour towards interest organizations. Theoretically, we build on a classic framework explaining legislators’ behaviour and refine it through the lenses of informational theories of legislative lobbying. We argue and show that legislators recognize organizations that enhance electoral prospects in their home Member States, and that legislator–group ideological proximity and an interest group's prominence in a specific policy field affect MEPs’ decisions to recognize some organizations as relevant actors. Our argument acknowledges the importance of the broader context in which MEPs operate and pays attention to how they react to and interact with it. Empirically, we propose an original and innovative research design to identify and measure recognition with the help of social media data. Our measurement strategy constitutes a significant improvement insofar that it reduces the challenges of measurement bias usually associated with self-reported data generated through interviews, surveys, or the textual analysis of newspaper articles and official documents. Our research design allows using fine-grained measures of key dependent and explanatory variables and offers the very first analysis of MEP interest group recognition that holds across decision-making events and policy areas. We test our argument on a new dataset with 4 million observations recording the recognition of more than 7,000 organizations by 80 per cent of MEPs serving in EP8. We find that MEPs are more likely to recognize organizations from their Member State, particularly under flexible- and open-list electoral institutions. MEPs are also more likely to recognize organizations that share their ideological affinities and are prominent actors in policy areas legislators specialize in.     

Rule-takers,rule-makers,or rule-promoters? Turkey and Mexico's role as rising middle powers in global economic governance

Rising middle powers play increasingly active international roles, yet so far we lack systematic analyses of their aspirations and impact on global economic governance. This paper addresses this gap. I argue that the role that rising middle powers assume in global economic governance depends on the degree of alignment of their regulatory preferences with those of established powers, and on the strength of their regulatory institutions. If their preferences are aligned and they develop high regulatory capacity in an issue area, they will aspire to promote existing global rules in their own region. They will engage in regional rule-promotion because of growing economic ties to their region, and also because their regulatory agencies are socialized into these rules within transgovernmental networks. I explore these arguments empirically through case studies of two rising middle powers, Turkey and Mexico, in the global governance of competition law and policy.     

Illicit arms trafficking and the limits of rational choice theory: the case of the Balkans

Organized crime is often conceptualized as a business enterprise formed by actors motivated by profits. The Balkans represents an ideal case for testing the extent to which assumptions about the image of actors involved in illegal arms trading can be extrapolated to the macro-level of analysis. Focusing mainly on public discourse, this paper points to several thematic categories of illicit arms trafficking: i) profit-oriented arms trafficking involving organized crime groups ii) trafficking of arms for the purpose of arming criminal-terrorist formations and iii) state-sponsored illegal arms trafficking. Although economic incentives appear strong in many cases, other cultural, social and political issues also frame the illicit arms market in the region. We argue that both understanding and policing organized crime should also embrace the non-economic nature of this type of criminal behavior.

信息网络传播权的适用靳学军

制定《世界知识产权组织版权公约》(WCT)第8条是为了将数字网络中的作品传播权纳入到著作权中。我国著作权法中信息网络传播权的立法目的与WCT第8条相同。不能脱离数字网络传播方式来理解“选定的时间和地点”要件。数字网络传播具有交互性,即在数字网络中,数字信号是否开始向某个特定用户传输由该用户“在其个人选定的时间和地点”决定。从文义解释出发,数字网络传播也应适用信息网络传播权。为弥补立法缺陷,可以删除“选定的时间和地点”要件,合并广播权,确立实至名归的信息网络传播权。     

Policy beliefs,policy learning,and risk perception: Exploring the formation of local creative Placemaking-catalyzed policy network

This article studies the formation of a local Creative Placemaking (CPM) policy network based on the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) and social capital perspective of policy networks. This article hypothesizes that policy beliefs, policy learning, social capital, and the perceived risks induced by defections, as well as macro-level changes in the broader political and socio-economic system, influence partner selection in the local CPM policy networks. The study collected survey data from policy actors participating in the Franklinton CPM-catalyzed revitalization project in Columbus, Ohio. An exponential random graph model (ERGM) was applied to test the hypotheses. The findings partially support the hypotheses: policy learning, certain secondary policy beliefs, and risk perceptions of changes in economic and political factors are correlated with tie formation. The reciprocity-driven bonding structure underlies the Franklinton CPM policy network, suggesting that policy actors perceive the Franklinton CPM policy network as a high-defection-risk network. This study has implications for policy makers in designing engagement strategies to better involve stakeholders holding different beliefs and occupying different network positions.     

What Is “Successful” Resettlement? Refugee Narratives From Regional New South Wales in Australia

This paper explores how people from refugee backgrounds experienced regional resettlement in New South Wales, Australia, by focusing on their narratives of determinants of “successful” resettlement. Semi-structured interviews with nine refugee participants in 2016 revealed challenges in relation to employment, social networks and relationships, and support services. While such challenges are consistent with research in metropolitan cities, there were limitations unique to the regional context. Resettlement policies have contradictory elements inherent to their design that can be detrimental to what refugees consider as successful resettlement. This has particular implications for more recent schemes like the Safe Haven Enterprise Visa (SHEV).     

Is Political Consulting Going Digital?

Every four years consultants all over the world look at American presidential elections trying to unveil new techniques that can be adopted in their own countries. In 2012 databases and metrics become the cornerstone for a successful campaign and therefore, there is a need for new professionals, and for a new way of approaching the profession. The campaign for the re-election of Obama residential is a turning point not only for political communications but also for political consulting: digital revolution will open doors for a new generation of consultants not only in the United States, but also in Europe and South America.     

Networks and labor market entry – a historical perspective

This paper discusses how recruitment practices have changed over time. Networks and contacts are more important today for labor market entry than was the case in the latter half of the twentieth century. There may be two explanations for this: the short-run explanation and the long-run explanation. The short-run explanation derives from fluctuations in unemployment. When unemployment is high, competition for every vacancy is tougher and networks become more important for the job seeker. This has been the case in Sweden since 1991, when unemployment increased to new levels not experienced since the 1930s. In the long run, there has been a change in recruitment practices due to institutional change. A clear pattern is that the importance of social networks has increased, while the significance of public institutions (i.e. the Public Employment Service) has decreased.     

The Invisible Hand? Critical Information Infrastructures,Commercialisation and National Security

Corporatisation of critical information infrastructure (CII) is rooted in the ‘privatisation wave’ of the 1980s-90s, when the ground was laid for outsourcing public utilities. Despite well-known risks relating to reliability, resilience, and accountability, commitment to efficiency imperatives have driven governments to outsource key public services and infrastructures. A recent illustrative case with enormous implications is the 2017 Swedish ICT scandal, where outsourcing of CII caused major security breaches. With the transfer of the Swedish Transport Agency’s ICT system to IBM and subcontractors, classified data and protected identities were made accessible to non-vetted foreign private employees – sensitive data could thus now be in anyone’s hands. This case clearly demonstrates accountability gaps that can arise in public-private governance of CII.