Indicators for economic vulnerability to drought in South Africa

This article identifies and estimates economic drought vulnerability indicators among communal farmers in South Africa, using an economic vulnerability index based on a household survey of 121 communal farmers. The results show that lack of resources, unemployment, price sensitivity, market access, the level of farm debt, output, on- and off-farm diversification, management, and financial safety nets were the main economic vulnerability variables. Farm debt and financial safety provide the bulk of the vulnerability index. The study’s findings suggest that government should reconsider priorities in the implementation of appropriate policy measures in response to drought.     

国际海洋开发大势下东南亚国家的海洋活动

目前,激烈争夺海洋成为各国扩大其生存空间的必然趋势和基本发展战略。1982年4月,联合国第三次海洋法会议通过《联合国海洋法公约》以后,世界各国纷纷宣布建立200海里专属经济区,并加快海洋资源勘探开发的步伐。目前,东南亚国家对海洋权益的要求集中在海洋矿物资源的勘探开发上,并把其勘探开发行动从自己国家的近海向外延伸,程度不同地侵夺本应属于中国的南海主权。我国也应树立海洋国土危机意识,审时度势,掌握主动,有理、有利、有节地开展与别国进行海洋合作的研究与行动实施。     

Bush: The Sequel

This article examines the likely foreign policy initiatives of the U.S. under the leadership of George W. Bush. The new president has outlined a fairly thorough critique of America's international behavior in the 1990s. Because a leader's public statements arguably serve to persuade various audiences and to build support for policy change, the article takes Bush's words quite seriously—along with those spoken or written by his closest foreign affairs advisors. Bush intends to abandon the so-called Clinton Doctrine and deploy national missile defenses. He is critical of American policies toward China and Russia, but has not presented bold new initiatives toward those powers. Under the rubric of "compassionate conservatism," Bush may alter U.S. relations toward the Global South in some interesting ways. The president and his advisors often purport to be realists, but the article demonstrates that their own words belie this claim as they often justify policies based on ideals rather than the pursuit of power.     

4株猪瘟流行野毒株病毒结构蛋白E2基因的核苷酸序列分析

应用RT-PCR和nPCR扩增由4株甘肃省近期(1997-1998)猪瘟流行野毒株的E2基因,将其克隆到pGEMTEasy载体上,经转化、筛选、鉴定后,测出核苷核序列.4株流行毒株的E2基因核苷酸序列同源性为89.2%-99.7%,相应的氨基酸序列同源性为93.8%-99.0%.这4株流行毒株;与C-株(疫苗种毒)E2基因的核苷酸序列同源性为82.2%-84.3%,相应的氨基酸序列同源性为87.9%-90.2%,表明近期猪瘟流行毒株与C-株的gp55蛋白之间存在一定的差异.     

利用aroA基因建立鸡传染性鼻炎PCR诊断方法

利用aroA基因设计了1对引物,分别对10株标准副鸡嗜血杆菌(HPG)菌株、14株分离的HPG菌株进行PCR扩增,结果均得到了与预期大小一致的片段,而对10株非HPG菌株和3株病毒进行扩增则无相应片段产生;该PCR能检测出10个菌细胞.与常规PCR方法相比,aroA-PCR的敏感性更高.     

Presidential roles and rhetoric

Traditional literature on the public dimensions of the American presidency suggests that the office has a significant impact upon the political lives of Americans and that contemporary presidents frequently appeal for public support to pressure other government elites. This study systematically analyzes rhetorical references to the presidency by examining a president's articulation of presidential roles in public speeches and press conferences. This study finds that Johnson, Nixon, and Carter did rhetorically refer to presidential roles, especially when confronted by crisis and controversy. The implication is that when confronted by serious controversy, presidents tell Americans about the responsibilities of the presidency in an effort to mobilize public support.     

东盟东增长区的发展与引资成效

自20世纪90年代初以来,东盟次区域经济合作非常活跃,先后出现了新加坡、马来西亚柔佛和印尼的廖内群岛等组成的"新柔廖增长三角",又被称为"东盟南增长三角";印尼、马来西亚、泰国相邻部分组成的"东盟北增长三角";文莱、印尼、马来西亚和菲律宾相邻部分组成的"东盟东部经济增长区(简称东盟东增长区)"等.这些由东盟各国自愿组成的各种增长三角已成为东盟进行合作的重要形式,促进了东盟各国间经济联系和相互合作,带动了贸易和投资的发展.本文选取东盟区域内最大的、最年轻的东盟东增长区,分析其带动资本流动的效果,探讨其发展成效.     

Administrative reform assistance and democracy promotion: exploring the democratic substance of the EU’s public administration reform principles for the neighbourhood countries

International donors, particularly the European Union (EU), vehemently endorse institution-building and public administration reform (PAR) in their work on democracy support. Still, the linkages between externally sponsored reform and advancement of democratic governance in beneficiary countries constitute a blind spot in our understanding of democratization. This article contributes to examining this relationship by exploring the democratic substance of the EU’s PAR portfolio for the neighbourhood countries. The aim of the article is to focus attention on the PA–democracy interface in the study of democracy promotion by elaborating a conceptual framework for exploring the nature of externally supported administrative reforms and the substantive content of democracy being advanced. By using the OECD/SIGMA’s (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/Support for Improvement in Governance and Management) PAR framework for the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries as a case study, this article demonstrates how the EU’s approach to programming PAR accommodates elements from several formats of democratic governance while the conceptualization of the democratic effects of the PAR principles remains vague. The article concludes by highlighting the need for closer examination of the potentials and limits of external PAR strategies in democracy support, and for attuning the EU’s PAR design to its democratic implications.     

Projecting the Arena of Inclusion: The Case of South Korea in Pursuing a Phased Inclusive Growth Process

South Korea created a mechanism that fuels inclusive growth, a process that coevolves economic growth and social well‐being. This study attempts to elaborate on the context and preconditions for development that would manifest salience policy implications for moving up the industrial value chain and attain inclusive growth. We contend against the view of simplified growth cum equity that is used to elucidate the success of Korea's socioeconomic development (economic miracles). Our findings informed us that there were intense measures taken throughout different phases of Korea's industrial development. In addition, we observed in many occasions intense negotiations between the state, firms, and civil society for social welfare and a better working environment. This led to a pursuit for inclusive growth in the post catching‐up phase that blended together many inclusive agendas, realizing growth that coevolved industrial upgrading and social welfare. This article seeks to explain how Korea populated its arena of inclusion in the process of pursuing rapid industrialization. The overview of different phases of development provides normative principles that are useful as a guide for other economies which aspire to attain similar development.     

Identifying the Causes of Issue Attention and Policy Change: Evidence from U.S. Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Policy, 2008

The flow of attention in the policy process is dynamic and disruptive. While we know changes in issue attention often result in policy change, the causal mechanisms underlying the different stages of the attention allocation process remain unclear. This article uses Punctuated Equilibrium Theory to examine an underdeveloped aspect of issue attention within policy‐making institutions: how specific policy indicators influence the entry and exit of issues on policy‐making agendas. Partisan issue attention in the House of Representatives is used to analyze a significant change to U.S. offshore oil and natural gas drilling policy in 2008. The results highlight how historically high gasoline prices precipitated a shift in attention to offshore drilling and subsequent policy change. Moreover, gasoline prices Granger‐cause attention to energy policy in partisan speeches over time. The analysis further reveals how competing policy frames and a salient focusing event shaped congressional and public discourse, leading to subsequent changes in attention. Taken together, the findings broaden our understanding of the policy process by identifying the specific forces behind the entry and exit of issues on the policy‐making agenda.