《中图法》第四版社会工作和民政工作类目评析

《中国图书馆分类法》第四版中有关社会工作和民政工作类目在立类的简繁上、类名的确定上、立类标准的统一上仍有商榷之处,笔者提出社会工作和民政工作立类方案。     

在网络化环境中提高图书分类质量的几个问题

在新世纪网络化环境中, 做好图书分类工作直接决定和影响着图书馆整体工作的水平。要切实提高图书分类质量, 图书馆就要关注和把握几个重要问题 (1) 提高分类质量的基础和前提是熟悉和掌握分类法;(2) 提高分类质量的有效途径是制定与完善本馆的分类细则; (3) 提高分类质量的保证是严格遵循图书分类工作程序; (4) 提高分类质量的关键是不断提高分类人员的综合素质和能力。     

Foreign aid: An instrument for fighting communism?

In this paper, we test the argument that the sizeable reduction in aggregate aid levels in the 1990s was due to the end of the Cold War. We test two different models using a dynamic econometric specification on a panel of 17 donor countries, spanning the years 1970–97. We find aid to be positively related to military expenditures in the former Eastern Bloc during the Cold War, but not in the 1990s, suggesting that the reductions in aid disbursements are driven by the disappearance of an important motive for aid. We also study the effect on aid allocation, but here we do not find any robust effects of the end of the Cold War.     

Unintended consequences: experimental evidence for the criminogenic effect of prison security level placement on post-release recidivism

Most prison systems use quantitative instruments to classify and assign inmates to prison security levels commensurate to their level of risk. Bench and Allen (The Prison Journal 83(4):367-382, 2003) offer evidence that the assignment to higher security prisons produces elevated levels of misconduct independent of the individual’s propensity to commit misconduct. Chen and Shapiro (American Law and Economics Review, 2007) demonstrate that assignment to higher security level among inmates with the same classification scores increases post-release recidivism. Underlying both of these claims is the idea that the prison social environment is criminogenic. In this paper we examine the theoretical premises for this claim and present data from the only experiment that has been conducted that randomly assigns inmates to prison security levels and evaluates both prison misconduct and post-release recidivism. The experiment’s results show that inmates with a level III security classification who were randomly assigned to a security level III prison in the California prison system had a hazard rate of returning to prison that was 31% higher than that of their randomly selected counterparts who were assigned to a level I prison. Thus, the offenders’ classification assignments at admission determined their likelihood of returning to prison. There were no differences in the institutional serious misconduct rates of these same prisoners. These results are contradictory to a specific deterrence prediction and more consistent with peer influence and environmental strain theories. These results also raise important policy implications that challenge the way correctional administrators will have to think about the costs and benefits of separating inmates into homogeneous pools based on classification scores.

论口岸的渊源、定义、分类及功能

口岸起源与国家边界相关。无论是边界相对模糊的古代王朝还是现代边界清晰的国家边界,均需要国家之间相互交流的通道,只不过通道名称因疆域、交通手段变化不一而已。现代国家口岸是双方或多方国家在边境或境内交通枢纽设立的供人货通行的官方通道,它由边界、界碑、国门、海关等象征国家主权的建筑和边检机构、边检通道、边防哨所、边贸市场等组成。口岸按批准开放的权限可划分为一类口岸和二类口岸;按依托的交通条件可划分为航空口岸、水运口岸、铁路口岸、公路口岸;按检验手段可以分为电子口岸和实检口岸;按实际功用可以分为内部通商口岸和边境口岸;按对应国家多少分为第三方口岸与双边口岸。口岸的功能是“通”“控”兼有,安全通达。     

关于证据科学的思考

本文探讨了证据科学的要素。本文认为,证据科学必须是多学科的,或者整合性的。如果我们分享彼此基于证据的推理方面的思想和经验,我们都会受益于稳固确立的证据科学。     

论先秦儒家的推类理论

先秦儒家的孔子、孟子和荀子,在谈说论辩实践中都特别重视推类思维方法的运用。他们对类和推类的认识体现了儒家的推类理论由不自觉到自觉、由片面到全面的发展过程。与其他学派相比,儒家的推类主要是推＂仁＂、推＂爱＂的推理,是用来阐发其政治伦理思想和主张的主要手段和工具。     

Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Application of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

In this paper, we attempt to forecast which prison inmates are likely to engage in very serious misconduct while incarcerated. Such misconduct would usually be a major felony if committed outside of prison: drug trafficking, assault, rape, attempted murder and other crimes. The binary response variable is problematic because it is highly unbalanced. Using data from nearly 10,000 inmates held in facilities operated by the California Department of Corrections, we show that several popular classification procedures do no better than the marginal distribution unless the data are weighted in a fashion that compensates for the lack of balance. Then, random forests performs reasonably well, and better than CART or logistic regression. Although less than 3% of the inmates studied over 24 months were reported for very serious misconduct, we are able to correctly forecast such behavior about half the time.

论经侦基础工作的概念与分类

经济犯罪侦查基础工作,是经济犯罪侦查工作的一个重要组成部分。准确地界定其概念与分类,有利于合理配置公安机关的资源。考察经济犯罪侦查基础工作,应当从基础的层次、公安机关的性质和任务、工作的对象、目的以及经侦基础工作的表现形式等方面来全面分析。按照经侦基础工作的对象、实施的方式、实施的主体可以做出不同的分类。