A Metric Comparison of Predictive Hot Spot Techniques and RTM

There are numerous hot spot mapping techniques that can be used in research and in practice for predicting future crime locations. Due to differences in the varying techniques, metrics were developed to compare the accuracy and precision of these techniques. The predictive accuracy index (PAI) and recapture rate index (RRI) were used to assess six different hot spot techniques. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Crime, Nearest Neighbor Hierarchical, Kernel Density Estimation, and Risk Terrain Modeling were the general techniques compared in relation to their PAI and RRI values for short-term and long-term prediction of robberies. The results of the study were discussed with an emphasis on the utility of using multiple techniques jointly for analysis.     

人民币汇率变动对中美贸易结构收支的影响——基于SITC分类标准的实证分析

人民币汇率变动能否解决中美双边贸易失衡问题一直是国内外学者研究与争论的焦点。实证分析表明,人民币汇率的水平变动无法起到调节中美两国贸易收支的作用,但适度增加汇率波动弹性有助于缓解贸易失衡。因此,只有消除对人民币升值的预期、进行经济结构调整以及改善外商直接投资的流向,才能从根本上恢复中美之间的贸易平衡。     

人民币汇率未来走势分析

继2005年人民币升值后,人民币汇率会不会进一步攀升以及升值的空间有多大又一次成为人们关注的话题。判断人民币汇率走势,应该从汇率影响因素的分析入手,从名义汇率和实际汇率两个方面加以论证。从经济基本面要素看,人民币汇率仍然具有进一步升值的潜力。     

提高边检服务水平实现边检工作方针的根本转变

2007年全国边防检查工作会议重新确立了边防检查工作的指导思想和工作方针,这是边防检查工作为适应形势任务发展需要而作出的必然选择.要实现这一根本转变,应从抓好服务主体、服务内容和服务效果三方面的转变入手,并将工作落实到"坚持通关效率"和"坚持严密管控"的两个基本点上来.     

认真学习和自觉实践“三个代表”重要思想不断提高人民群众对公安工作的满意率

认真学习、深刻领导会、贯彻落实江总书记“七一”重要讲话 ,进一步增强贯彻党的基本理论、基本路线、基本纲领的自觉性和坚定性 ,进一步落实“三个代表”重要思想的自觉性和坚定性。联系公安机关的思想实际和工作实际 ,一是牢记“三个不能” ,始终保持同人民群众的血肉联系 ;二是强化公仆意识 ,真正从人民满意的事做起 ,从人民不满意的问题改起 ;三是坚持群众满意标准 ,把评判权交给广大人民群众     

从国际法的视角看我国当前人民币汇率政策的合法性

经济全球化对各国货币主权都产生了很大的冲击和影响。近来,我国的人民币汇率问题不断遭到西方国家的指控和非难。但是,从国际法的视角看,我国当前的货币政策是行使国家货币主权的一项重要内容和方式,符合IMF和WTO协定等国际法律文件的规范性要求,具有“合法性”。西方国家指责我国的汇率政策违反IMF和WTO协定是站不住脚的,干涉了我国的货币主权,而且缺乏国际法上的依据。     

波兰转轨以来汇率制度演变及启示

一国汇率制度的选择是因时而异的动态过程。分析波兰转轨以来汇率制度的变化。我国人民币汇率制度应考虑国际国内实际情况的变化并完善相关条件、把握汇率制度调整的主动权且渐进改革、根据汇率制度的演变进程有步骤地开放资本项目及协调好汇率制度与货币政策的关系并维护货币政策的独立性。     

China’s consumer credit sector expansion and monetary transmission mechanism: What should China’s central bank do?

In this paper, we argue that as China’s consumer credit sector is expanding, the central bank’s role in smoothing economic fluctuation and promoting economic growth becomes more important. We build a general equilibrium model with durable and nondurable goods to analyze how the consumer credit sector affects the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The model finds that an expanding consumer credit sector improves the efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism. Two policy implications derived suggest China’s central bank should encourage the development of the consumer credit sector and liberalize market-based monetary policy tools such as interest rate tools. Her fields of interest are international economics, monetary policies and economic growth. Guofeng Sun is the deputy director of open market operation office of monetary policy department at People’s Bank of China. His research focus is the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The authors thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the People’s Bank of China.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission allowance allocation mechanisms,allocative efficiency and the environment: a static and dynamic perspective

The object of this paper is to place allocation mechanisms into a framework of Emission Trading Systems and thereby to establish a typology. It analyses how various assignment mechanisms deal with issues such as price determination, allocative efficiency and environmental considerations in a static and dynamic economy model. It analyses how allocation mechanisms are to be ranked and whether they serve the attainment of the general equilibrium. First the paper examines how market-based allocation mechanisms (auctions) perform in light of the above issues. Second the paper distinguishes between the two types of administrative allocation mechanisms: (1) financial administrative allocation mechanisms, combining payment schemes with bureaucratic expertise, and (2) free administrative allocation mechanisms, based inter alia on industrial policy considerations and on passed emission records (grandfathering). In particular, the value added of relative performance standards, which are for example included in the “Performance Standard Rate” (PSR) Emission Trading System, are examined as a means to provide allowances. The overall finding is that in a closed static economy and in the presence of an efficient trading market, different allocation methods produce equally efficient outcomes in allocative and environmental respects. With regard to an open dynamic economy, the impact of initial allocation mechanisms resembles those of a static closed economy. In such an economy the upper limit to the internalisation of negative externalities is given by operator’s costs of environmentally harmful relocation and hence the cost burden placed upon operators is crucial. Auctions and financial administrative allocation mechanisms perform less well than free administrative mechanisms. Relative standard base mechanisms, constituting an important element of the PSR Emission Trading System, perform better than grandfathering schemes because they take into account abatement possibilities of industries, minimise stranded costs and do not give rise to time shifting of abatement projects. It is therefore concluded that allocation mechanisms merit more attention than the discussion relating to capped trade and trade without a cap.      

基本养老保险个人账户收益率与替代率关系定量分析

基本养老保险之目的是为退休人员提供合意的退休金，避免陷入老年贫困。本文分别从现行制度计发办法和实际生命余岁精算的角度出发，定量分析了我国基本养老制度个人账户收益率与其替代率的关系，提出应高度重视当前个人账户低收益率所带来的严重后果，较高的收益率既是替代率的重要保证，也是累积制优越性的重要体现。而收益率的重要性却没有在政策制定中充分体现，低水平计息、微不足道的替代率皆与当初设想相去甚远。结论：既然建立了个人账户就应该将其做实并通过市场化运营获得较高的回报；而在还未有效地解决好收益率的情况下，不应草率地再将个人账户推广至其他群体，以免使更多人受损。