Unregistered residents and registered crime: an estimate for asylum seekers and irregular migrants in Norway

The purpose of our study has been to better estimate the number and types of crimes committed by asylum seekers and irregular migrants. While data on immigration status for non-residents are lacking in Norwegian crime statistics, we use indirect identifiers (lack of a national ID number, citizenship, residency) to arrive at an estimate for persons with a pending asylum claim and the related group of irregular migrants (i.e. non-EU citizens). A very small amount of the total crimes registered with a known offender are committed by this group. However, these groups are most likely overrepresented as offenders compared to the registered resident population, also when taking age and gender into consideration. Our method is recommended in a field otherwise dominated by political arguments and as an alternative to registering asylum status in crime registers.     

治安员队伍专项清理与规范治安辅助队伍管理的思考

20 0 4年10月以来,各地公安机关在贯彻公安部下达的“治安员队伍专项清理”工作中,普遍遇到了“一旦没有了治安员,群防群治工作该怎么办?”的共性难点问题。为此,我们必须明确治安员专项清理工作的精神实质,在开展专项清理工作时必须正确把握好三个方面的关系,同时,要正确认清当前的治安形势,继续走好新形势下的专群结合之路。     

SCM协议中财税措施地区专向性特别规定初探——兼评美国对华反补贴调查的相关案例及我国的对策

SCM协议地区专向性标准条款中的财税措施特别规定具有经济合理性,并符合WTO的政治考虑。该特别规定认定“有资格”的地方各级政府所采取的“确定或者改变”在其辖区内“普遍适用”税率的补贴措施不具有SCM协议意义上的专向性。我国应充分利用该特别规定提供的政策空间,深化税制改革,协调地方政府地区补贴与SCM协议之间的关系。     

Testing the Hollowing-Out Thesis

In recent years, many economists have argued that governments are discarding pegged exchange rates in favor of alternative exchange rate regimes such as monetary unions and currency boards on the one hand, or floating exchange rates on the other. Capital mobility, such economists argue, has made pegged exchange rates costly to maintain for long periods, and thus the pegging option is being “hollowed-out.” Few, however, have tried to present evidence that capital mobility has a direct effect on exchange rate regime choices. I present two sets of tests using different measures of capital mobility that provide qualified confirmation that developing countries peg less as capital mobility rises. These tests indicate that direct measures of capital mobility have some correlation with de facto exchange rate regimes but not with de jure exchange rate regimes. Capital flows, a consequence of capital mobility, may have a direct effect on the choices of both de jure and de facto regimes. Governments do not make changes in their declared exchange rate policies in rational anticipation of the growing costs of pegging associated with increasing capital mobility. Rather, governments normally adapt their declared exchange rate policies after capital flows have increased and actual exchange rates have become more difficult to manage. The tests also indicate that hollowing-out has not only been the result of systemic factors such as increasing capital mobility and capital flows, but also due to domestic factors such as growing public sector indebtedness and the spread of democracy.     

Rape investigation and prosecution: Stuck in the mud?

Abstract

This paper evaluates the Stern Review of rape in the context of public responses to rape, in England and Wales. The piece is based on an anti-rape feminist approach and so weighs a woman-centred approach to rape responses against the mainstream justice model. Overall, the argument made is that nothing much is really changing in public responses to rape. The work outlines problems with the Stern contention that the conviction rates for rape need to be calculated differently, and takes issue with the claim that the “policies are right”. Stern's call for greater support for women who have been raped is welcomed, but the effectiveness of the review process itself is questioned. These discussions illustrate the process of attrition as it is variously understood by feminists and by Baroness Stern. It is suggested that reviews themselves may be little more than a dampener, brought in when claims for change create a need to be seen to be doing something. A preferred alternative might be some form of ongoing body, reviewing and challenging practice and policy; however, it is recognised that this could be difficult to achieve amid the current spending cuts. The paper then turns to evaluate trends in support for survivors and notes that the more “professional” models of the Sexual Assault Referral Centre and the Independent Sexual Violence Advisers have held sway for some time. However, under the new coalition, government funding is also being directed towards women-only Rape Crisis centres, and this move is warmly welcomed here. The work concludes that much does indeed remain the same, despite positive signs in terms of respect for this survivor-centred model.     

The 2001 British Election Study Internet Poll

ABSTRACT

This paper reports on the findings of the Internet component of the 2001 BES and compares them with those of the other BES pre-election surveys. Part 1 outlines the rationale that underpins the introduction of Internet polling as a supplement to more traditional methods of assessing mass public opinion. Part 2 describes the marginal distributions on the key dependent variable-the projected vote shares of the main political parties-of the three pre-election polls that were conducted using BES questionnaires. Intriguingly, the (unweighted) Internet-based poll provided a better guess of the actual vote shares in the subsequent election than either of the two conventional polls. Part 3 provides a more detailed comparison of the profiles of the face-to-face and Internet-based polls. It shows how the Internet poll, compared with the face-to-face poll, was skewed demographically towards the professional classes and politically towards the Conservative Party. Part 4 explores the extent to which the use of the Internet poll might result in spurious causal inferences being drawn about the sources of voting preferences in the 2001 UK election. A simple, direct-effects causal model is estimated using both the face-to-face probability sample data and the Internet survey data. The results suggest that, although the raw probability and Internet samples differ significantly, the relationships among the key variables do not differ significantly across the two samples. We conclude that Internet polling has an important part to play in gauging and analysing public opinion in future UK elections.     

On the Duration of Self-Employment: The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions

The article examines the role of lending rates, imports and growth on the duration of self-employment in Zimbabwe while the country embarked on trade liberalisation. The variables were selected because of their importance as policy variables in reform programmes and also their importance to small entrepreneurs. Previous research has established the importance of an initial endowment and other measures of human capital on entry into self-employment as well as growth of the respective enterprises. We show that such initial conditions do not always give robust results. Instead, duration of self-employment is negatively related to higher lending rates, increased imports and structural change, but responds positively to growth.     

The exclusion of Roma claimants in Canadian refugee policy

The arrival of thousands of European Roma seeking refugee status in Canada elicited a range of legislative and policy instruments that severely restrict their acceptance and create conditions antagonistic to further admissions. Interventions have included visa restrictions, actions by Immigration and Refugee Board, the Balanced Refugee Reform Act followed by the Protecting Canada's Immigration System Act, and ministerial rhetoric about the illegitimacy of Roma as refugees. Other factors have involved interpretations of persecution in relation to the Geneva Convention and Protocol, and the implications of the conditions required for membership to the European Union. These political circumstances in large part determine Canadian acceptance rates for the Roma. Their systematic exclusion is reminiscent of the historical treatment of other groups due to institutional racism. In the new racism, however, refugee law and policy is racist in effect while evading the language of race.     

The South African National Credit Act fails to protect homeowners against various interest rates hikes

Where a credit provider makes a proper financial assessment and finds that the low-income consumer will be able to satisfy in a timely manner all the obligations under all the credit agreements to which the consumer is a party he will in all probability conclude the credit agreement with the consumer. Obviously the affordability assessment made by the credit provider will depend on the prevailing interest rates at the time. There has been several interest rate hikes since June 2006 to December 2008 in South Africa that has had a detrimental impact on low-income home owners. Due to the various interest rate hikes and the prevailing high interest rates many consumers have lost their mortgaged homes. The South African National Credit Act of 2005 has failed to take into its purview cases such as these, and as a consequence there is no sort of consumer protection available for the low-income group who become over-indebted, because of the constant rising interest rates on their mortgage loans.     

Mutation rates at 14 STR loci in the population from Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil

Definition about mutation rates of short tandem repeats (STRs) loci used in forensic analysis are useful for the correct interpretation of resulting genetic profiles and the definition of criterions for exclusion in paternity testing. Germline mutation of 14 STR loci was studied for 54,105 parent–child allelic transfers from 2575 paternity testing cases carried out during 2000–2007 from the Pernambuco State, Northeast Brazil. The parenthood in each of these cases was highly validated (probability > 99.99%). We identified 43 mutations at 12 loci. Locus-specific mutation rate estimates varied between 2 × 10⁻⁴ and 2 × 10⁻³, and the overall mutation rate estimate was 8 × 10⁻⁴. Mutation events in the male germline were more frequent than in the female germline. The majority of the mutations could be explained by losses or gains of one repeat unit and there was no evidence for selection between insertion or deletion changes. Our data were compared with those of Portuguese and North-American populations for CSF1PO, D18S51, D21S11, D7S820, TH01, TPOX and demonstrated, despite the great difference in the size of the sample, that mutation rates of STR loci in a mixed population do not differ from that encountered in different populations.