Firearm examination: Examiner judgments and computer‐based comparisons

Forensic firearm examination provides the court of law with information about the source of fired cartridge cases. We assessed the validity of source decisions of a computer‐based method and of 73 firearm examiners who compared breechface and firing pin impressions of 48 comparison sets. We also compared the computer‐based method's comparison scores with the examiners' degree‐of‐support judgments and assessed the validity of the latter. The true‐positive rate (sensitivity) and true‐negative rate (specificity) of the computer‐based method (for the comparison of both the breechface and firing pin impressions) were 94.4% and at least 91.7%, respectively. For the examiners, the true‐positive rate was at least 95.3% and the true‐negative rate was at least 86.2%. The validity of the source decisions improved when the evaluations of breechface and firing pin impressions were combined and for the examiners also when the perceived difficulty of the comparison decreased. The examiners were reluctant to provide source decisions for "difficult" comparisons even though their source decisions were mostly correct. The correlation between the computer‐based method's comparison scores and the examiners' degree‐of‐support judgments was low for the same‐source comparisons to negligible for the different‐source comparisons. Combining the outcomes of computer‐based methods with the judgments of examiners could increase the validity of firearm examinations. The examiners' numerical degree‐of‐support judgments for their source decisions were not well‐calibrated and showed clear signs of overconfidence. We suggest studying the merits of performance feedback to calibrate these judgments.     

Measures of opportunity and the calculation of the arson rate: The connection between operationalization and association

The crime of arson is complicated in part because of the motives associated with the offense and the vast assortment of combustible objects or targets deliberately burned in urban areas. This research attempts to conceptualize the crime in light of criminal law and demonstrates that arson occupies a rather unique position. Although classified as a property crime, the legislative intent appears to focus on the protection of human life. Moreover, legislative developments have brought us to the point where burning almost any property is designated arson. There is a growing concern over the incidence of arson, but there has been little discussion of how to calculate the arson rate when the targets of opportunity are not known. The exploratory research presented here addresses the structure of arson rates by using an assortment of indirect and direct measures of opportunity as denominators in the calculation of the arson rate. Factor analysis reduces a 27×27 correlation matrix to six significant factors and demonstrates that some measures share the same underlying rate structure. By using a factorbase scale (dependent variable) for each factor and a set of independent variables, regression analysis reveals that there are differences in the direction of association, the degree of association, and the types of independent variables that associate with different measures of the arson rate.     

Associations between national gambling policies and disordered gambling prevalence rates within Europe

Policymakers and other interested stakeholders currently are seeking information about the comparative effectiveness of different regulatory approaches to minimising gambling-related harm. This study responds to this research gap by exploring associations between gambling policies and disordered gambling prevalence rates. We gathered information about gambling policies for thirty European jurisdictions and past-year prevalence rates for disordered gambling for twelve of these jurisdictions. We present policy trends and prevalence rates and then describe the level of association between policy and prevalence. We observe one statistically significant association between policy and prevalence: rates of sub-clinical (i.e., Level 2) disordered gambling were higher within environments that mandated less strict regulation of advertising for online gambling. Finally, we discuss the implications of our research in the context of the current process regarding the pan-European regulation of gambling. Our findings do not offer evidence for certain assumptions made in the past by the European judiciary.     

England's New Scheme for Funding Higher Education through Student Fees: ‘Fair and Progressive’?

From September 2012 most home undergraduates at English universities are being charged fees of £9,000 per annum. These are funded by a government loan, which attracts interest from the moment they start their course; after three years their accumulated debt exceeds £30,000. They can also borrow to cover their living costs, on the same terms, so that those studying in London can graduate with a debt of more than £50,000—although those from low‐income families can obtain grants and universities are encouraged to provide bursaries and other support to students from underrepresented groups. Graduates start repaying their debts once their annual income exceeds £21,000—at a rate of 9% of the difference between their income and that figure: until the debt is fully repaid it continues to attract interest, by as much as three percentage points above the current inflation rate. Using data from a calculator on a government website, this paper shows that the highest‐paid graduates pay back less than those on middle incomes: the ‘squeezed middle’ pays back more not only than those on low incomes but also the better‐paid and those whose incomes increase more rapidly. This has differential effects according to occupation—and sex; and middle‐income groups also contribute more to the costs of widening participation programmes, which all universities charging more than £6,000 per annum are required to fund.     

提高边检服务水平实现边检工作方针的根本转变

2007年全国边防检查工作会议重新确立了边防检查工作的指导思想和工作方针,这是边防检查工作为适应形势任务发展需要而作出的必然选择.要实现这一根本转变,应从抓好服务主体、服务内容和服务效果三方面的转变入手,并将工作落实到"坚持通关效率"和"坚持严密管控"的两个基本点上来.     

Autoerotic death: incidence and age of victims--a population-based study

Review of the Australian National Coronial Information System and the Swedish National Forensic Database was undertaken over a 7-year period from 2001 to 2007 for all cases where death had been attributed to autoerotic death or sexual asphyxia. In Australia, there were 44 cases (M:F = 42:2) with the majority of victims aged >30 years (77%)-a yearly national rate of approximately 0.3/million. In Sweden, there were nine cases (M:F = 9:0) with the majority of cases aged <30 years (55%)-a yearly national rate of approximately 0.14/million. The usual male predominance was present in both populations, although the Australian victims were older than is usually reported. Lethal sexual asphyxia is uncommon in both the Australian and Swedish populations, with a lower rate than has been cited for North America. Whether this is because of different kinds of paraphilic activities in different populations or of differences in methods of central data collection is uncertain.     

我国商业银行利率市场化问题研究——中小商业银行“被退市”危机及应对策略

2012年我国两次不对称降息政策进一步加快了利率市场化进程,并引发了商业银行利润总额和利润结构的急剧变化。从世界金融发展历史看,存贷利差的缩小,利润水平的大幅下降可能影响商业银行财务的连续性,使其遭遇重组甚至“被退市”的危机。我国的商业银行尤其是中小商业银行如不提前防备,同样面临“被退市”风险。因此,中小商业银行必须高度重视利率因素带来的生存危机,提高应对水平,以求在利率市场化过程中得以生存与发展。     

意外死亡尸检率下降原因分析

本文调查分析了公众对意外死亡是否同意进行尸检态度的影响因素。利用设计的“公众对意外死亡进行尸检认知情况调查问卷”对386名社会随机个体进行问卷调查。运用Logistic回归分析、最优尺度回归分析的统计学方法对回收的问卷进行分析。通过调查分析，发现公众对尸检相关知识了解程度的因素、对尸检结果的认可程度因素、文化程度因素、家庭经济状况因素，影响着公众对意外死亡后尸体解剖检验的态度。     

East Asia in the Global Economy: Theoretical and Empirical Questions for Marxism

ABSTRACT

As Marxism and socialism pass through watershed years it is important to reflect on the abiding questions of Marxist theory and empirical analysis. This article takes up this task in the context of East Asia under the impetus of globalisation and neo-liberalism, introducing a collection of five articles collected in the special issue. The article shows that questions Marx posed about the global economy more than a century ago remain prescient and continue to animate cutting-edge research, as shown in the articles in this special issue.