BUSINESS CYCLES AND STREET CRIME

This study examines the influence of business cycle fluctuations on street crime in the conceptual framework of Cantor and Land's(1985) seminal work distinguishing between opportunity and motivation effects. The analysis contributes to the literature three ways. First, we use cross‐section/time series data, which has several important advantages over simple time‐series or cross‐section data of previous studies. Second, it introduces a new and broader measure of business cycle conditions, one that more faithfully captures the logic of Cantor and Land's framework than previous measures do. Third, it focuses on the large decline in street crime of the 1990s, a central issue facing criminologists. Statistical models indicate that the strong economy of the 1990s reduced all four index property crimes and robbery by reducing criminal motivation. Business cycle growth produced no significant opportunity effect for any of the crimes studied.     

THE TRUANCY INTERVENTION PROGRAM OF THE RAMSEY COUNTY ATTORNEY'S OFFICE: A COLLABORATIVE APPROACH TO SCHOOL SUCCESS

Chronic truancy has far‐reaching effects, both for the youth who become disconnected from school and for society. Crime, unemployment, underemployment, drug abuse, alcohol abuse and risky sexual activity have all been linked to chronic truancy. In 1995, the Minnesota Legislature authorized the creation of diversion programs specifically for truants. That same year, in response to the growing truancy problem, Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner directed her staff to create a program for early intervention in truancy cases. From its beginning, the goals of the Truancy Intervention Program (TIP) have been to reduce the rate of truancy, to increase school connectedness, and to improve high school graduation rates. The program has accomplished these goals and, along the way, forged strong bonds of cooperation with schools, law enforcement agencies, and service providers. Ten years after the creation of TIP, the graduation rates in the city of St. Paul, the largest school district in the county, have improved by over 50 percent; the number of students missing 15 days of school of more (excused as well as unexcused) has decreased by more than 50 percent; and a large majority of chronic truants and their families have been successfully connected to services to address underlying problems.     

Aggregation effects on male-to-female arrest rate ratios in New York State, 1972 to 1984

The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of data aggregation on a specification of the relationship between sex and arrest rate trends. The analysis focuses on the empirical implications when arrest data are aggregated across dimensions that are likely to affect the sex-crime relationship. The data for the analysis consist of 4,119,358 male and female adult arrests in New York State for the 13-year period ending in 1984. Results indicate that race, regional differences, and the legal seriousness of the arrest charge produce significantly different patterns of sex convergence across time. On the basis of these results, we suggest serious limitations in past analyses of female crime rates and in the value of Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data for addressing theoretically relevant questions concerning the social correlates of official crime.     

RACIAL THREAT,CONCENTRATED DISADVANTAGE AND SOCIAL CONTROL: CONSIDERING THE MACRO‐LEVEL SOURCES OF VARIATION IN ARRESTS*

Several studies have examined the relationship between racial threat (measured by the size of black population) and social control imposed on blacks, but evidence of this hypothesis has been mixed. Although dependency on percent black as the main indicator of racial threat in many studies has contributed to the inconsistency in findings, we argue that this literature has also neglected to consider other important conceptual and methodological issues. Using 2000 census and arrest data, we estimate the impact of multiple measures of racial economic threat, such as the size of the black population, racial inequality and black immigration patterns on black arrest rates. Furthermore, by integrating racial competition and race‐relations arguments, we examine how the concentration of black disadvantage may temper the extent to which blacks pose a threat to white interests. Our findings reveal important and conceptually distinct relationships between racial threat, concentrated disadvantage and the use of social control against blacks, particularly when compared to white arrests.     

The ‘pains’ of electronic monitoring: a slap on the wrist or just as bad as prison?

The purpose of this research is to examine whether inmates that have served electronic monitoring (EM) find it more punitive than offenders that have not served electronic monitoring. We asked a sample of 1194 inmates currently incarcerated in a Midwestern state to estimate exchange rates of electronic monitoring over prison by rating how many months of EM they would serve to avoid 12 months in prison. The results indicate that inmates view EM as less punitive than prison and that monitored offenders find EM more punitive than unmonitored offenders. Additionally, black inmates were more likely to have served EM than white inmates and older inmates find EM more punitive than younger inmates. Previously monitored offenders report that they will be less likely to rely on family and friends upon release from prison. These results suggest that EM is perceived as a punitive sanction by those that have experienced it. Furthermore, racial differences uncovered here may help explain why minorities view alternative sanctions as particularly punitive and may also partially explain why the experience of EM may negatively impact family relationship among those that have served EM.     

Racial profiling and searches: Did the politics of racial profiling change police behavior?*

Research Summary Scholarly research has documented repeatedly that minority citizens are disproportionately stopped, searched, and arrested relative to their baseline populations. In recent years, policymakers have brought increased attention to this issue as law‐enforcement agencies across the United States have faced allegations of racial profiling. In the 1990s, the politics generated by accounts of racially biased policing placed heightened pressure on law‐enforcement agencies. However, to date, few studies have explored whether the increased social and political scrutiny placed on police organizations influenced or changed their general pattern of enforcement among black and white citizens. Using data in the search and citation file from the North Carolina Highway Traffic Study, this research specifically examined whether the politics generated by the media coverage of racial profiling and racial profiling legislation in North Carolina influenced the search practices of officers of the North Carolina State Highway Patrol's drug interdiction team. The findings suggest that media accounts and the passage of new legislation were particularly powerful influences, which thereby reduced racial disparity in searches. Declines in the use of consent searches and an increased probability of finding contraband also were influenced by the politics of racial profiling. Policy Implications The results of this study suggest several important policy recommendations. First, law‐enforcement agencies must monitor the policing practices of their officers because such supervision can influence officer compliance with fair and unbiased policing policies. Next, supervisors need to familiarize themselves with enforcement data to identify potential problem officers and organizational practices. By doing so, police organizations will not only increase officer accountability but also will potentially improve communication with their local communities. Such communication can empower community members to file charges against officers who violate their civil rights. Next, the media and political effects documented in this study suggest that external oversight can be particularly influential on police practices. Therefore, police agencies should consider developing a citizen complaint board, which is an external oversight board that would be responsible for investigating allegations against officers who engage in racial profiling or other racially biased enforcement practices. Such a board could assist police administrators in identifying problem officers as well as in making recommendations for corrective action. Finally, external social and political pressure must continually be placed on police forces to improve equity in police behavior. These external forces can assist in creating opportunities for police to increase the overall quality and efficacy of policing.     

Y-STR mutational rates determination in South Portugal Caucasian population

Y-STR mutational rate estimation is very important for the correct evaluation of typing results in forensic casework and specially kinship genetic studies. In this work we studied 95 Southern Portuguese Caucasian father/son pairs in order to estimate mutational rates for the 17 Y-STRs multiplex used in routine casework. In a total of 1615 allele transfers three single step mutations were detected in DYS385a, DYS439, and DYS448, with an estimated mutation rate of 10,526 × 10⁻³ (95%CI 0.265 × 10⁻³ to 20.788 × 10⁻³). The estimated average mutation rate is 1.858 × 10⁻³ (95%CI 8.08 × 10⁻⁴ to 2.908 × 10⁻³). It would be important to characterize more father/son pairs in order to estimate more reliable allele specific mutation rates for the most widely used Y-STRs markers in forensic genetics.     

If Violence Is Domestic, Does It Really Count?

Estimates of the prevalence of marital violence have been found to vary dramatically from survey to survey. This paper addresses one potential explanation for this difference which involves the focus and format of different surveys. We examine the extent to which survey respondents are willing to report marital violence in a context which focuses on criminal behaviors as opposed to a family violence context. In a very basic way, this answers a question as to whether individuals are willing to define acts of marital violence as criminal. Methodologically, it is a measurement issue which seriously affects the ability to compare findings across samples. National Youth Survey data are used to compare rates of generalized spousal assault and victimization reported in a crime context with rates of marital assault and victimization reported in a family violence context. Results indicate that 40 to 83% of all marital assaults and victimizations reported in the marital violence section are not reported in a format which focuses on criminal assault and victimization.     

Connecting the dots: Crime rates and criminal justice evaluation research

The National Research Council’s report on evaluating anticrime programs contains sensible suggestions for improving evaluation research in criminal justice but neglects the important role of substantive theory in linking evaluations of anticrime initiatives to variation in crime rates across time and place. A working knowledge of crime rates is essential for designing and evaluating anticrime programs. This essay calls for the development of a policy evaluation infrastructure that would support the continuous monitoring of crime rates, generate knowledge of crime-producing conditions, and link evaluation research findings to one another and to expected policy outcomes, notably crime reduction.

Age-cohort analysis of arrest rates

Logistic regressions of age-period-cohort models for city arrest rates are estimated with data from seven U.S. cities for the years 1970–1980 to study the dependence of officially designated criminality in select offense categories on age. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine how dependent the findings are on details of model specification.