Comprehensive analysis and investigation of accident/occupational disease responsibility rates: A case study for accidental CO poisoning

One of the major problems of courts and insurance companies is the lack of a proper technique to determine the rate of responsibility of the parties involved in the accident. The aim of this study was to determine the Accident/Occupational Diseases Responsibility Rates (AOD RR) for complex events. Accordingly, a case study of a complex accident of carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning was selected and Occupational Accident Tree Analysis (OATA) and Occupational Accident Component Analysis (OACA) techniques, which were solely used to investigate occupational accidents, were used with the new names Accident/Occupational Disease Tree Analysis (AOD TA) and Accident/Occupational Disease Component Analysis (AOD CA) to evaluate their applicability to investigate non-occupational accidents and occupational diseases. For this purpose, causes of CO penetration to victims’ room was assessed using gas tracking methods. Finally, Fuzzy Accident/Occupational Disease Tree/Component Analysis (FAOD TA and FAOD CA) techniques were developed and used for determining AOD RR in fuzzy environment. The results showed that the AOD RR obtained by AOD TA and AOD CA based on the average of experts’ personal opinions and consensus between experts, and AOD TA and AOD CA in a fuzzy environment were close to each other, with the power terminal and the power cable crossing route being the main routes of transmission and penetration of CO to the victims’ room. Also, the owner, contractor, tenant, and serviceman were responsible for the CO poisoning of victims. It can be concluded that any hole, crack, or fission in the building can result in CO penetration to the individuals’ living rooms, and gas tracking in early winter, especially in older buildings, plays a very significant role in preventing residents’ poisoning. Further, due to the uncertainty of AOD TA and AOD CA techniques, it is recommended to use FAOD TA and FAOD CA techniques for increasing the accuracy of the results. This will enhance the court and insurance companies’ trust in the opinions of accident investigation experts, decrease delays in the proceedings, and prevent any violation of the individual rights.     

Knowledge on DNA Success Rates to Optimize the DNA Analysis Process: From Crime Scene to Laboratory

DNA analysis has become an essential intelligence tool in the criminal justice system for the identification of possible offenders. However, it appears that about half of the processed DNA samples contains too little DNA for analysis. This study looks at DNA success rates within 28 different categories of trace exhibits and relates the DNA concentration to the characteristics of the DNA profile. Data from 2260 analyzed crime samples show that cigarettes, bloodstains, and headwear have relatively high success rates. Cartridge cases, crowbars, and tie‐wraps are on the other end of the spectrum. These objective data can assist forensics in their selection process.The DNA success probability shows a positive relation with the DNA concentration. This finding enables the laboratory to set an evidence‐based threshold value in the DNA analysis process. For instance, 958 DNA extracts had a concentration value of 6 pg/μL or less. Only 46 of the 958 low‐level extracts provided meaningful DNA profiling data.     

A Comparison of Methods for Analyzing Criminological Panel Data

We demonstrate that fixed- and random-effects models for pooled cross-sectional and time series data, and latent growth curve models for panel data are special cases of a more general model. We compare the estimates obtained from each type of model for a data set consisting of homicide rates and a vector of explanatory variables for 400 US counties over a 15-year period. Most, but not all, estimates are similar in the two models. We identify circumstances under which one approach may be advantageous to the other.

The private value of patents by patent characteristics: evidence from Finland

I use renewal rates and fees to estimate the private value of Finnish patents by patent characteristic. I disaggregate the value estimations by applicant, patent breadth, and technology. Firm patents are 1.5 times more valuable than patents owned by individuals. This holds also when controlling for technology and breadth. There are large differences in values between technologies but in contrast to the usual assumption made in the theoretical literature, broader patents are not necessarily more valuable than narrower ones. Patent value is skewed and therefore the number of patents should be weighted by an index when measuring technological change. I construct this index for Finnish patents and find that renewing a patent one more year signals a 1.5 times more valuable patent.      

The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism

Improvements have been made in identifying the prevalence of risk factors/indicators for violent extremism. A consistent problem is the lack of base rates. How to develop base rates is of equal concern. This study has two aims: (i) compare two methods for developing base rates; the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT) and direct questioning, (ii) generate base rates in a general population sample and compare these to a sample of lone-actor terrorists (n = 125). We surveyed 2108 subjects from the general population. Participants were recruited from an online access panel and randomly assigned to one of three conditions; direct survey, control, or UCT. Survey items were based on a lone-actor terrorist codebook developed from the wider literature. Direct questioning was more suitable under our study conditions where UCT resulted in deflation effects. Comparing the base rates identified a number of significant differences: (i) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated propensity indicators related to a cognitive susceptibility, and a crime- and/or violence-supportive morality more often; the general sample demonstrated protective factors more often, (ii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated situational indicators related to a crime- and/or violence-supportive morality more often, whereas the general sample experienced situational stressors more often, (iii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated indicators related to exposure to extremism more often. Results suggest there are measurable differences in the prevalence of risk factors between lone-actor terrorists and the general population. However, no single factor “predicts” violent extremism. This bears implications for our understanding of the interrelation of risk and protective factors, and for the risk assessment of violent extremism.     

Error Rates,Likelihood Ratios,and Jury Evaluation of Forensic Evidence

Forensic examiners regularly testify in criminal cases, informing the jurors whether crime scene evidence likely came from a source. In this study, we examine the impact of providing jurors with testimony further qualified by error rates and likelihood ratios, for expert testimony concerning two forensic disciplines: commonly used fingerprint comparison evidence and a novel technique involving voice comparison. Our method involved surveying mock jurors in Amazon Mechanical Turk (N = 897 laypeople) using written testimony and judicial instructions. Participants were more skeptical of voice analysis and generated fewer “guilty” decisions than for fingerprint analysis (B = 2.00, OR = 7.06, p = <0.000). We found that error rate information most strongly decreased “guilty” votes relative to no qualifying information for participants who heard fingerprint evidence (but not those that heard voice analysis evidence; B = −1.16, OR = 0.32, p = 0.007). We also found that error rates and conclusion types led to a greater decrease on “guilty” votes for fingerprint evidence than voice evidence (B = 1.44, OR = 4.23, p = 0.021). We conclude that these results suggest jurors adjust the weight placed on forensic evidence depending on their prior views about its reliability. Future research should develop testimony and judicial instructions that can better inform jurors of the strengths and limitations of forensic evidence.     

The Political Economy of Exchange Rates in an Era of Global Production Chains

Scholars have long recognized that exchange-rate movements affect different actors within societies in different ways. However, increasingly complex global production chains add complications to longstanding theoretic models of exchange-rate politics. I argue that imported intermediate inputs condition firm preferences regarding the level and stability of exchange-rates and directly test these arguments using firm survey responses in a variety of countries. I employ multilevel models to evaluate how imported input profiles of firms interact with real effective exchange-rate movements to influence firm assessments of macroeconomic constraints. Higher dependence on imported inputs is linked to increased dissatisfaction with depreciating currencies, contingent on various firm and country characteristics. The results highlight the multiple channels through which exchange-rate movements can now affect exporters, nonexporters, and nontradables.     

Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates

This article introduces the use of regression models based on the Poissondistribution as a tool for resolving common problems in analyzing aggregatecrime rates. When the population size of an aggregate unit is small relativeto the offense rate, crime rates must be computed from a small number ofoffenses. Such data are ill-suited to least-squares analysis. Poisson-basedregression models of counts of offenses are preferable because they arebuilt on assumptions about error distributions that are consistent withthe nature of event counts. A simple elaboration transforms the Poissonmodel of offense counts to a model of per capita offense rates. Todemonstrate the use and advantages of this method, this article presentsanalyses of juvenile arrest rates for robbery in 264 nonmetropolitancounties in four states. The negative binomial variant of Poisson regressioneffectively resolved difficulties that arise in ordinary least-squaresanalyses.     

Disparities in Infant Mortality Rates Among Immigrant Caribbean Groups in New York City

SUMMARY

This study examined infant mortality rates (IMR) in New York City (NYC) to identify those groups reporting higher IMR concentrations in recent years and to determine what factors and explanations are associated with this new trend.

Analysis of data from NYC Department of Health (DOH) identified infant mortality patterns throughout the City by both maternal birthplace and NYC Health Districts. In addition, infant mortality rates for those NYC populations with the highest concentrations were compared to the most recently available IMR data from their countries of origin. Focus group sessions were conducted with women in the identified groups in New York City in an effort to obtain their perspectives on causality and other factors associated with the new trend.

Strong patterns emerged from this study pointing to a concentration of the City's highest IMR among groups from the circum-Caribbean region. Results of focus group sessions with women in the identified population groups yielded a list of specific barriers faced by this population in the utilization of perinatal care services. In addition, the study resulted in some clearly delineated program and policy approaches that can help to address the disparities in IMR.

Myriad causative factors contribute to the high rates of IMR among Caribbean immigrant groups. Expanding the availability of both successful program models and promising practices is critical to decreasing infant mortality in immigrant communities. Specific recommendations are for the development of a strategic set of interventions designed to eliminate this most serious challenge to the health of new immigrant groups in NYC.

Any references to comparisons between data from NYC and data from the countries of origin were merely to serve as a reference point as it is not often possible to determine the level of scientific rigor applied to the collection and analysis of data external to the United States (U.S.).

Implications for social work practice with immigrant populations include the need for delivery of culturally competent services in general and for cultural sensitivity to health beliefs surrounding maternal child health issues in particular.     

Trends of indecent images of children and child sexual offences between 2005/2006 and 2012/2013 within the United Kingdom

Abstract

Little is known about the trends of indecent images of children (IIOC) offences, as UK criminal justice figures are unavailable within official crime data. This study aims to explore the rates of conviction and the relationship between IIOC offences and child sexual abuse offences from 2005/2006 to 2012/2013. The results indicated a continuing increase in offences of take, permit, distribute IIOC, rape of a child under 13, sexual activity of child under 16 and abuse of children through prostitution or pornography. Six out of a possible 17 correlations were significant, with the strongest correlation found between take, make, distribute IIOC and rape of a female under 13. Explanations for the findings are discussed and the utility of comprehensive prevalence figures for different stakeholders involved in addressing this crime issue.