Alcohol and Parasomnias: The Statistical Evaluation of the Parasomnia Defense in Sexual Assault,Where Alcohol is Involved

Sleep sex may be a defense for alleged sexual assault. The International Classification of Sleep Disorders (ICSD3) states: “Disorders of arousal should not be diagnosed in the presence of alcohol intoxication… The former [alcohol blackouts] are exponentially more prevalent.” A panel member of ICSD3, quoting ICSD3 asserts: “alcohol intoxication should rule out a sleep-walking defense”. This implies extremely strong support for a prosecution hypothesis (H_p) over a defense hypothesis (H_d). I use Bayesian methodology to evaluate the evidential probity of alcohol intoxication. The likelihood ratio, LR, measures the amplification of prior odds of guilt, . By Bayes' theorem, . I use data from cross-sectional studies of sexual assault and prevalence of alcohol use, in college students, with data from longitudinal studies, and data from the epidemiology of parasomnias to evaluate LR (alcohol). LR ~1.5 or 5, depending whether alcohol does, or does not, increase the risk of parasomnias. The proposition of extremely strong support for H_p implies a LR ~1,000,000, so the proposition in ICSD3 is not supported by formal analysis. The statistical reasoning in ICSD3 is unclear. There appears to be inversion of the Bayesian conditional (confusing intoxication given assault, and assault given intoxication) and failure to evaluate alcohol intoxication in H_d. Similar statistical errors in R. v Sally Clark are discussed. The American Academy of Sleep Medicine should review the statistical methodology in ICSD3.     

Property Rights and Game-Theory Implications of Satellite Communications: The Bilateral Case of Greece and Russia

In this paper we examine the actual legal situation concerning the attribution of geostatic positions and frequencies and the problems of frequency interference by other satellites due to not fully clear property rights. We analyze the property rights setting governing satellite communications and review the implications of the Coase theorem of these rules through a game theoretical approach between two players: Russia and Greece (Hellasat commercial communication attempt). The basic finding, in accordance with the theorem's prediction under non-zero and possibly high transaction costs, is that the end result may be sub-optimal due to the inappropriate present specification of property rights, leading either to non-use of scarce resources, or to total over-investment.     

A Different Reason for “De-Coasing” Environmental Law and Economics

The so-called Coase Theorem is one of the cornerstones of the Law and Economics approach. This paper investigates whether it is appropriate to apply the Coasean framework in the context of Environmental Law and Economics. Even when transaction costs are zero, it is argued that in the specific case of environmental policy the initial assignment of rights will seriously affect the final allocation of resources. To support this thesis empirical evidence backed up by theoretical explanations are presented. The methodological distinction between negligible, domain and heuristic assumptions and the elaboration of a ‘logical time’ of the Coase Theorem are crucial to understand why eventually the Coase Theorem should not be applied to the realm of environmental law and policy.JEL Classification: D23, K0, K32, Q2     

New formulae for estimating age-at-death in the Balkans utilizing Lamendin's dental technique and Bayesian analysis

The present study analyzed apical translucency and periodontal recession on single-rooted teeth in order to generate age-at-death estimations using two inverse calibration methods and one Bayesian method. The three age estimates were compared to highlight inherent problems with the inverse calibration methods. The results showed that the Bayesian analysis reduced severity of several problems associated with adult skeletal age-at-death estimations. The Bayesian estimates produced a lower overall mean error, a higher correlation with actual age, reduced aging bias, reduced age mimicry, and reduced the age ranges associated with the most probable age as compared to the inverse calibration methods for this sample. This research concluded that periodontal recession cannot be used as a univariate age indicator, due to its low correlation with chronological age. Apical translucency yielded a high correlation with chronological age and was concluded to be an important age indicator. The Bayesian approach offered the most appropriate statistical analysis for the estimation of age-at-death with the current sample.     

法经济学基本定理在环境法上的应用

对于先天缺少法律基石和理论依据的环境法来说,它的研究方法有必要运用法经济学中的基本原理、定理、分析工具和标准研究分析生态环境领域的经济活动和经济关系的规律性,环境与经济的内在联系和相互作用的关系表明了发展经济与保护环境必须协调发展的客观规律,运用经济规律、价值规律等在环境保护领域中发挥引导作用,为制定环境保护方针、技术经济政策、环境规划提供理论根据。对环保领域进行经济效益、社会效益的分析,即以法律经济学的思维方式来审视环境问题,运用经济手段和方法进行环境管理,研究环境措施的经济效果,为制定最佳环保方案提供依据。     

论法经济学分析范式的传承与分野——科斯分析范式与波斯纳分析范式之比较

法经济学分析范式在法经济学理论体系中处于基础性地位。从某种意义上而言,法经济学的发展实际上就是其自身分析范式的持续性革命。科斯以交易成本为最基本的分析工具,架起了新古典经济学与法律之间联系的桥梁,在大大增强了新古典经济学对现实问题解释力的同时,也为法经济学的研究提供了可能。而波斯纳则在继承科斯法经济学分析范式的同时,另辟蹊径,运用科斯提出的交易成本理论及其衍生的效率工具来分析法律规则背后的经济逻辑,为法经济学的进一步发展拓宽了理论的空间,由此形成了法经济学下的经济的法律分析和法律的经济分析的不同研究路径,从而最终导致法经济学分析范式的分野。     

Two items of evidence, no putative source: an inference problem in forensic intelligence

Intelligence analysts commonly associate cases on the basis of similarities found in compared characteristics of scientific evidence. The present paper studies some of the inferential difficulties associated with such operations. An analysis is proposed that breaks down the reasoning process into inference to common source, and inference to case linkage. The former requires an approach to the difficulty associated with evaluating the similarities of items of evidence from different cases with no putative source being available. The latter requires consideration to be given to the relevance of evidence. Throughout the paper, probability theory is used to describe the nature of the proposed inferences. Graphical models are also introduced with the aim of providing further insight into the dependence and independence relationships assumed to hold among the various propositions considered. Notions from decision theory are used to discuss ways in which intelligence analysts may assist investigators in deciding whether or not cases should be considered as linked.     

The Coase Theorem, Private Information, and the Benefits of Not Assigning Property Rights

Using a simple bilateral trading example with discrete valuations and costs it is demonstrated that in the presence of private information the efficiency of Coasean bargaining may be strictly enhanced if initially no property rights are assigned.     

科斯命题的谬误

科斯命题的谬误分为逻辑谬误和经验谬误,学术界对科斯命题的谬误的争论经常在两个不同层次上展开,造成了很多混乱。自由交换版科斯命题、交易成本版科斯命题和完全竞争版科斯命题是否是同义反复或者逻辑谬误在于“交易成本”、“自由交换”和“效率”的定义,实际上属于是否逻辑谬误的问题。科斯对经验世界的判断“通常”、“往往”似乎成立,但仔细分析,科斯的判断是错误的。     

古典经济学的市场观

西方经济学长期以来一直存在着两大主要流派的分歧,即凯恩斯主义和经济自由主义的争论。这些流派对现代宏观经济波动及治理问题的讨论,往往都从古典经济学中寻找理论的支撑或批判的靶子,而古典经济学的市场观实际上是市场经济的效率观,有严格的限定条件,如果将其放在现代市场经济波动问题中来讨论都会发生理论认识上的误解。