策略人和策略决策模型:草原管理的智能体模拟分析

传统决策理论忽视了对人的策略性行为和策略决策的考察。本文通过对草原管理的智能体模拟分析,发展了策略人和策略决策新模型,并重点研究了策略人的四种典型策略决策:策略性投票、掩盖性、交易性和学习性策略决策。智能体模拟分析发现,在特定条件下,策略人的策略决策深刻影响个体的具体行动,并进而影响个体的行动结果(例,草原的可持续发展)。进而探讨了通过政策或制度安排来利用策略人的策略决策谋取预期政策或制度收益的可能性和其现实响应,并与策略人的四种典型策略决策相对应,依次讨论了策略约束性、保护性、诱导性以及学习性四种政策或制度安排。     

142例二轮摩托车驾乘人员损伤特征分析

目的分析二轮摩托车交通事故的现场特点和驾乘人员的损伤特征,为甄别摩托车驾乘人员提供信息。方法收集本区2005年至2014年142例二轮摩托车交通事故人员伤亡资料,包括事故经过、事故类型、现场特点、车辆特点、驾乘人员情况、损伤情况及死亡原因等相关资料,进行分析总结。结果二轮摩托车驾乘人员在各类型事故中的损伤部位和特征、出现率及严重程度有明显的区别,事故现场有规律性。结论通过现场与人体损伤特征的分析,可以甄别摩托车驾乘人员。     

2019年中国刑法实施报告

2019年是新中国成立70周年的伟大日子。70年来,在中国的刑事法治建设取得长足发展的同时,中国刑法学在始终恪守重视基础理论的总结、创新与完善的基础上,亦更加主动地回应社会现实关切的热点、疑点、难点问题,彰显出鲜明的时代特色,凸显出刑法积极参与社会治理的重要功能,弘扬了新时代我国刑法学鲜明的问题意识与自主意识。相较以往,2019年度刑事犯罪在涉众型、风险型、科技型等领域较为突出,呈现出涉案金额巨大、危害面广、手法多样且不断翻新等特点。2019年度刑法实施报告主要将以下七个板块作为研究重点:新中国成立七十年刑事法治和刑法理论的变迁与反思、正当防卫制度的适用与完善、"扫黑除恶"专项斗争、人工智能时代刑法挑战的前瞻应对、互联网金融领域腐败犯罪治理防范问题、认罪认罚从宽制度实体适用问题及民刑交叉、行刑衔接等问题。     

Estimating Individual Contributions to Complex DNA SNP Mixtures.,

High‐throughput sequencing (HTS) of large panels of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) provides an alternative or complimentary approach to short tandem repeats (STRs) panels for the analysis of complex DNA mixture forensic samples. For STRs, methods to estimate individual contribution concentrations compare capillary electrophoresis peak heights, peak areas, or HTS allele read counts within a mixture. This article introduces three approaches (mean, median, and slope methods) for estimating individual DNA contributions to forensic mixtures for HTS/massively parallel sequencing (MPS) SNP panels. For SNPs, the major:minor allele ratios or counts, unique to each contributor, were compared to estimate contributor proportion within the mixture using the mean, median, and slope intercept for these alleles. The estimates for these three methods were typically within 5% of planned experimental contributions for defined mixtures.     

The Monitoring Capacity of Civil Society Networks: A Social Network Analysis in the Case of Gender Equality Policy

The role of civil society organizations (CSOs) as a watchdog in the implementation process is widely acknowledged. However, little is known about what determines their capacity to monitor EU policy implementation and how it differs across member states. This article accounts for social capital as well as human and financial capital to determine the monitoring capacity of CSOs. To capture sources of social capital, a network analysis is applied in a comparative case article on the monitoring networks of national platforms of the European Women’s Lobby across eight EU member states. The analysis reveals that CSOs in western member states are rich in human, financial and social capital, while CSOs in CEE member states compensate for this lack of resources by linking up with the Commission.     

社会保障权责配置：一种规范分析视角

社会保障权责配置有政府与市场和政府间之横纵两个层级。滞后的社会保障法制导致权责横纵配置的失衡-政府与市场之间配置的偏倚,政府之间配置的粗疏,这严重制约该制度功效的彰显。横向配置矫正的关键在于寻求政府责任的确定性与实现方式的多样性之间的平衡,并在发挥政府基础性作用时,倡导个人责任的回归、市场机制的引进及民间力量的渗透。纵向关系的细化要求以宪法层面原则性规定与法律层面具体性条款相结合的方式进一步规范各级政府的事权及其支出责任;从责任分担上做出更具操作性的制度安排,完善政府间社会保障支出责任分担法律机制。     

Trends in the proportion of married women of reproductive age in Spain, 1887–1991

Using the Princeton nuptiality index I_m, we analyzed historical developments in the proportion of married women of reproductive age in Spain. We show the internal diversity in nuptiality patterns and offer an explanatory statistical model based on panel data analysis to identify the main variables influencing these changes over more than a century (1887–1991). We found that Spain has been the developed country with the greatest contrasts in its provincial nuptiality patterns (measured by I_m), although this diversity has lessened over the course of time. We also found that some socioeconomic variables (the gross domestic product per capita and the percentage of population living in cities) do not have a linear relationship with female nuptiality but rather have a U shape or an inverted U shape. This may partly account for some of the controversy that has raged on this topic over the past few decades on an international level.     

犯罪学与刑事法制改革:以英国为例

过去30年英国的犯罪学发展具有两个明显特征:一个是"犯罪学"在多个维度的"膨胀";另一个是犯罪学"自治性"的增强。犯罪学在向自治学科转变的过程中既具有许多有益的方面,也存在诸多风险。它可能会丧失与其他学科之间的联系,也越来越容易受到外部环境的影响与制约,因而有必要对其存在的问题及其潜在的后果保持警觉。犯罪学知识的用途,在于为决策的制定提供科学依据。对犯罪学进行准确定位有两个核心要求:一是要承诺把犯罪学变成一个内涵广阔的学术概念,即将犯罪学的多元主义看作一个优势;二是要让犯罪学研究与实践保持长久的、基本的联系,将犯罪学知识渗入公众关注的犯罪和法制事件中,对"制度性环境"作出一个比现在更令人信服的解释。     

互联网涉毒犯罪研究

随着国际毒品形势的变化,毒品犯罪分子开始利用互联网这个平台进行毒品交易。2001年,联合国麻醉品管理局向全球发出警告:"毒品正通过互联网销售,私人聊天室正被毒品商利用,人们在互联网上正面临着毒品的威胁。"2011年10月,公安机关开展统一行动,成功侦破了我国首例利用互联网视频交友平台进行涉毒违法犯罪活动的"8.31特大网络吸贩毒案",敲响了我国互联网涉毒犯罪监管的警钟。