STUDYING CRIME TRENDS: NORMAL SCIENCE AND EXOGENOUS SHOCKS*

The study of crime trends has proceeded along two paths: 1) normal science investigations of slow‐moving and tractable changes in crime rates and explanatory conditions and 2) research encounters with unexpected and abrupt changes in crime rates resulting from exogenous shocks. I draw from my research on the relationship between crime rates and changing macroeconomic conditions to illustrate the pains and pleasures of studying crime trends with the tools of normal science. I describe my exploratory investigations of the recent homicide rise in the United States to underscore the theoretical importance and methodological challenges of research on exogenous shocks to crime rates. Finally, I hope to convey to the next generation of criminologists the intellectual excitement that comes from the study of crime trends.     

刑法中的兜底性条款探析

我国刑法中存在大量的兜底性条款,主要表现为类比推断型和最后兜底型。其存在原因在于成文法自身的不足、立法者有限的认知能力和立法者的有意而为。立法者设置兜底性条款的目的在于实现严密刑事法网,堵截犯罪、保护法益的功能诉求。因此,在司法过程中,应当转变刑法观念、反思成文法的局限性、在罪刑法定原则的指导下合理理解和适用兜底性条款,以平衡堵截性条款的法益保护与人权保障的内在冲突。     

对年龄序列非正式社会控制理论的一个质疑

年龄序列非正式社会控制理论是美国新近兴起的一种犯罪学理论。在成年犯罪原因上,认为婚姻和工作强化的社会纽带可以成为成年人违法犯罪的主要抑制因素。然而,通过对中国农民工流动人口犯罪和日常行为中的“家庭因素”进行考察分析,那么该理论“良好婚姻所形成家庭的社会纽带能够抑制成年犯罪”的结论就会受到质疑。     

英汉比较研究面临的新形势与我们的对策

文章分析了英汉比较研究当前面临的国际国内形势和学术发展的新动向．指出人文精神的回归、中国意识的觉醒和对实践问题的关注是最值得注意的三个方面。在此基础上提出英汉比较研究者要加强时代意识、危机意识、问题意识及主体意识。由此对几个具体方向的研究提出了自己的建议。     

我国贿赂犯罪罪名设置合理化问题研究

我国刑法分则第八章关于行贿、受贿犯罪的主体与对象特征规定较为混乱,影响了大众对这些犯罪的认知,笔者建议变更现有立法模式,将受贿犯罪与行贿犯罪分别予以整合形成公务受贿罪与公务行贿罪。罪名整合后不仅简化现有罪名体系,便于公众认知与学习,而且也为今后贿赂犯罪刑事立法的进一步完善做了铺垫。在此基础上,笔者对我国目前刑法关于受贿与行贿犯罪的立法规定进行整合和完善,形成关于公务受贿罪与公务行贿罪内容的具体设想。     

我国犯罪成立体系初探

我国目前的犯罪成立体系存在着价值上忽视对权利的保障,结构上犯罪构成与犯罪概念相脱节等缺陷。因此,有必要在价值上将我国犯罪成立体系的社会保护机能与权利保障机能相统一,在结构上将犯罪构成与犯罪概念相整合,并将积极的认定犯罪要件与消极的否定犯罪要件相结合,形成新型的犯罪成立体系。     

论徇私舞弊低价折股、出售国有资产犯罪案件侦查

侦查徇私舞弊低价折股、出售国有资产犯罪案件,要注意区分罪与非罪的界限,根据 案件的特点,选择正确的侦查途径,采取多种措施和策略,侦查取证,以打击犯罪。     

基于建构主义的犯罪现场勘查课程教学模式

犯罪现场勘查是公安院校课程体系中重要的专业课程。应根据建构主义教育理论对其进行改革,利用情境、协作和对话等方式充分发挥学生在学习过程中的主动性,使学生主动建构起犯罪现场勘查的基础知识,掌握勘查的基本技能。     

大学生犯罪及预防研究

近年来,大学生犯罪呈上升趋势并受到全社会的广泛关注。归根到底,大学生犯罪是多种消极因素综合作用的产物。只有通过司法机关、学校以及家庭等社会力量通力合作,综合治理,才能达到一般预防和特殊预防的目的。     

Contrasting simulated and empirical experiments in crime prevention

This paper argues that simulated experiments of crime prevention interventions are an important class of research methods that compare favorably with empirical experiments. It draws on Popper’s demarcation between science and non-science (Conjectures and refutations: the growth of scientific knowledge. Routledge, London, 1992) and Epstein’s principle of generative explanation (Generative social science: studies in agent-based computational modeling. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2006) to show how simulated experiments can falsify theory. The paper compares simulated and empirical experiments and shows that simulations have strengths that empirical methods lack, but they also have important relative weaknesses. We identify three threats to internal validity and two forms of external validity peculiar to simulated experiments. The paper also looks at the problem of validating simulations with crime data and suggests that simulations need to mimic the error production processes involved in the creation of empirical data. It concludes by listing ways simulations can be used to improve empirical experiments and discussing the differing operating assumption of empirical and simulation experimentalists.