Bayesian analysis and the accumulation of evidence in crime and justice intervention studies

In recent years a great deal of attention has turned to the need for policy-relevant research in criminology. Methodologically, attention has been trained on the use of randomized experimental designs and cumulative systematic reviews of evidence to accomplish this goal. Our work here reviews and demonstrates the utility of the Bayesian analytic framework, in the context of crime prevention and justice treatment studies, as a means of furthering the goals of research synthesis and creation of policy-relevant scientific statements. Evidence from various fields is used as a foundation for the discussion, and an empirical example illustrates how this approach might be useful in practical criminological research. It is concluded that Bayesian analysis offers a useful complement to existing approaches and warrants further inclusion in the ongoing discussion about how best to assess program effectiveness, synthesize evidence, and report findings from crime and justice evaluations in a way that is relevant to policy makers and practitioners.

Predicting and Preventing the Theft of Electronic Products

The research presented within this paper was conducted as part of a 2-year project (Project MARC) to develop and render operational a mechanism to assess the risk of theft of electronic products. Clarke and Newman (Secured goods by design - a plan for security coding of electronic products. London: Department of Trade and Industry, 2002) proposed the use of two checklists—one to measure vulnerability, the other to measure security—as a means of categorising products according to their vulnerability to theft. Consultation with key stakeholders yielded the common view that such a mechanism was worth pursuing, but that it must reflect the language of those who would use it. An extensive consultation with stakeholders from ten European member states ensued. Participants were asked to rate a range of electronic products in terms of vulnerability and security, and to explain their ratings. Their responses were used to develop two checklists that incorporate a variety of factors, weighted according to the frequency with which they were expressed. The crime vulnerability checklist developed within this paper is judged fit-for-purpose as a provisional measurement but we urge caution in relation to the security checklist.

IN SAFE HANDS: A Review of Mobile Phone Anti-theft Designs

Anti-theft designs relating to mobile phones are reviewed. The physical and electronic design of handsets includes visual deterrents, owner-identification, and handset tracking options. The systems design of phone networks includes the blacklisting of stolen phones. Other measures include biometric-locking of handsets, and designs that encourage ‘safe’ phone use and transportation. Characteristics that promote anti-theft designs are proposed and form the acronym ‘IN SAFE HANDS’: identifiable, neutral, seen, attached, findable, executable, hidden, automatic, necessary, detectable, and secure. The set of characteristics is presented as a heuristic device to aid designing-out crime from frequently stolen electronic goods.

Rape Co-occurrence: Do Additional Crimes Affect Victim Reporting and Police Clearance of Rape?

Despite the increased research attention given to rape and violence against women, little is known about rape co-occurrence, or rape incidents that involve another crime. Although previous research has found certain incident characteristics increase the likelihood that a victim reports her rape to police and that the offender is arrested and prosecuted, the relationship between co-occurrence and these responses is unknown. Given this gap in the literature, the main goal of the present research is to provide an initial understanding of rape co-occurrence and its effect on victim reporting and police clearance. To explore these issues, this study uses two national data sources that collect the requisite incident-level information: the National Crime Victimization Survey and the Uniform Crime Reporting Program’s National Incident-Based Reporting System. Few rapes are found to co-occur with other crimes. When rapes do occur with other crimes, though, they are more likely than solo-occurring rapes to involve weapons, strangers, additional injury to the victim, and multiple offenders. Rapes that co-occur also are more likely to be reported to police and cleared by police than rapes that occur with no other crimes.

试论票据诈骗案件的侦查对策

票据诈骗一直是金融犯罪领域的高发案件,其作案手段多样,涉及经济活动环节较多。侦查此类案件应从票据类型、票据的运作流程、案件特点等多角度进行调查取证。     

国家安全视角下南极法律规制的发展与应对

2015年《中华人民共和国国家安全法》从法律层面界定了中国国家安全的内涵和外延,其中包括维护在南极等新型领域的国家安全。由于中国南极事业的开展须遵循一系列的南极法律规制,因此南极法律规制的发展对中国在南极的国家安全利益具有重要意义。南极法律规制的主要内容包括和平利用与非军事化、搁置和冻结主权要求、科学研究自由、海洋生物资源养护、海事安全以及全面保护环境等。近年来,随着人类南极活动的扩展,南极法律规制出现了一些前沿性的问题,如南极主权要求国仍然强化权利主张,南极旅游和非政府活动、航空活动、特别区域保护等规则酝酿发展以及南极环境损害责任制度面临重新谈判等。这些趋势将对中国在南极的国家安全利益产生深远影响,中国可通过国内立法、发布政策文件、积极行使享有的国际法权利等途径来维护国家的南极利益。     

广州市城中村扫黑除恶中存在问题与对策探析

扫黑除恶专项斗争开展以来,广州市公安局侦破的黑恶势力犯罪团伙绝大多数在城中村.打击取得一定的成绩的同时,存在对核心骨干成员深挖不够,运动式打黑除恶的现象以及思想仍然存在,“打早打小”政策落实方面不到位等问题.应从治理与预防两方面入手.治理方面,除司法层面的治理措施以外,还需要综合治理.预防方面,总体层面要重构“打早打小...     

法律要件分类说与刑事证明责任分配——兼与龙宗智教授商榷

法律要件分类说是民事诉讼中证明责任分配的主流学说,关于该说对刑事证明责任分配适用的可能性,学界一致持基本否定的态度。这种否定态度是因为对证明责任基本概念存在诸多误解造成的。刑事和民事证明责任分配的基本方案,均应建立在对各法律要件进行分类基础之上,只不过各自对法律要件进行分类的具体方法存在重大差别。民事诉讼中以罗森贝克规范说的分类方法为典型代表,而刑事诉讼中法律要件分类的结果则体现为犯罪构成体系。应当从法律要件分类的视角,重新审视我国犯罪构成体系重构问题,从而使刑事证明责任的分配有章可循。     

中国公民在俄罗斯违法犯罪现状初探

中俄关系不断发展,不论是高层政治经济关系还是民间关系都呈现出快速发展的形势.现阶段,中国公民在活跃俄罗斯市场、补充俄罗斯劳动力同时,也带来一些新问题.中国公民在俄罗斯违法犯罪既有普遍性,又有其特殊性.既有来自中国公民自身的因素,也有来自双方警务机构和管理层面的因素和地域上的特殊性.     

Crime and punishment: an expressive voting view

Incarceration rates in many countries (the US and Australia among them) have risen spectacularly over the last twenty years and are only partially explicable by increases in crime rates. Moreover, in some countries where crime rates have shown a comparable time-path, incarceration rates have not shown the same spectacular increase. The aim of this paper is to explore the politics of punishment. The claim is that the US and Australian experiences are best understood in terms of political considerations; and that this fact lends some support to the “expressive” as distinct from the “interest” approach to electoral behaviour.