愿景与现实的矛盾触碰--美国心理战略委员会东南亚心理战略的筹划、实施与结果

为了遏制共产主义在东南亚的渗透，在美国国家安全委员会的指示下，心理战略委员会特别成立了一个东南亚计划小组来负责制定编号为PSB D-23号的东南亚心理战略计划。但是，在PSB D-23号文件筹划过程中，国务院、中央情报局等部门对如何扩大在东南亚的心理战略计划有不同的看法，使得该文件的制定过程颇多磨难。虽然经过妥协，该计划最终得到国家安全委员会通过，但其实施效果却不应过分夸大。     

米尔斯基和他的《俄国文学史》

"公爵同志"米尔斯基是20世纪二三十年代欧美和苏联文学界、知识界的重要人物之一,他充满突转的生活经历和坚忍不拔的文学活动构成文坛的一段传奇,甚或那一代俄国知识分子之命运的缩影和象征。他用英文撰写的《俄国文学史》被纳博科夫称为"用包括俄语在内的所有语言写就的最好一部俄国文学史",所谓"米尔斯基文学史"因其"折中主义"的文学史观、主客观统一的批评手法和极富个性的话语风格而独树一帜,被视为西方俄国文学研究的奠基之作,长期被欧美高校斯拉夫系用作俄国文学史教材,其影响历久不衰。     

世界大变局与中美日三国战略选择

在世界大变局中,战后国际格局重大变化的主要标志是“世界老二”易位。苏联、日本皆不例外;21世纪以来欧盟也由盛转衰。未来国际格局可能有三种前景:1.中美两极对抗体制;2.中美竞争合作的“两极多元体制”;3.世界各大力量多元并存,构建多元一体的人类命运共同体。这要看世界潮流是走向和平多边主义还是暴力多边主义。中国实现伟大复兴后的战略选择是“济弱扶倾”,为世界可持续发展与可持续安全做贡献。日本面临的战略选择是:继续在《日本国宪法》下走和平发展道路,还是修改宪法,成为“能战国家”的一员,加入暴力强权的多边主义?坚持开放的地区主义与国际协调,还是搞排他经济集团,远交近攻,以中国为竞争对手?利用中美对立从中渔利,还是促进中美协调而避免在中美之间“选边站”?妥善处理中日两国围绕钓鱼岛归属认知争议和台湾问题,还是重走历史老路?囿于冷战思维和传统权力政治的现实主义决策逻辑,同中国搞战略对抗,还是树立共同、综合、合作、可持续安全的新安全观,与中国加强合作?这些战略选择将关乎未来30年的中日关系。     

Virtual anthropology: a preliminary test of macroscopic observation versus 3D surface scans and computed tomography (CT) scans

Virtual anthropology (VA) is based on applying anthropological methods currently used to analyse bones to 3D models of human remains. While great advances have been made in this endeavour in the past decade, several interrogations concerning how reliable these models are and what their proper use should be remain unanswered. In this research, a fundamental assumption of VA has been investigated: if the way we perceive and apply an anthropological method is truly similar when looking at bones macroscopically and through various 3D media. In order to answer, 10 skulls of known age and sex were scanned using a computed tomography (CT) scanner and a 3D surface scanner. Two observers separately applied a defined staging method to eight suture sites on these skulls, first looking at the bone macroscopically, then at the 3D surface scan, and finally on the CT scan. Two rounds of observation were carried out by each observer. Intra- and inter-observer error were evaluated, and two sample t-tests used to evaluate if the different types of medium used yielded significantly different observations. The results show a high degree of inter-observer error, and that data obtained from 3D surface scans differ from macroscopic observation (confidence level 95%, P ≤ 0.05). CT scans, in these settings, yielded results comparable to those obtained through macroscopic observations. These results offer many possibilities for future research, including indications on the kind of anthropological methods and anatomical landmarks that might be reliably transferable to the virtual environment. All current methods used in traditional anthropology should be tested, and if they prove unreliable, new techniques to analyse bones from virtual models should be developed.

Key points

• Large discrepancies between observation on dry bones and computer-generated 3D models (surface scans or CT scans) could lead to the re-evaluation of the suitability of traditional anthropological methods for application on 3D models.
• This preliminary study evaluates whether macroscopic, 3D surface scans, and CT scans viewings generate different observations.
• The results indicate that the data are not always coherent across all three media of observation.
• Explanations include the aspect given to the bone by the 3D software, differences between handling bones in real life versus on a computer, and level of expertise of the observers.

     

文明冲突论视角下的沙特阿拉伯和美国的关系

在国家关系层面,西方和非西方之间的文明冲突具体表现为沙特阿拉伯与美国之间的冲突。沙特选择与一个意识形态完全不同的国家———美国结盟,固然存在着文明冲突,但是又超越了彼此间的冲突。不论双方之间的冲突有多大,国家利益的诉求将使这种关系继续存在下去,并且最终实现文明之间的融合。     

Postmortem chest computed tomography for the diagnosis of drowning:a feasibility study

It may be difficult to distinguish the cause of death in drowning cases without specific findings. The aim of this study was to explore the forensic value of thoracic postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) using routine images and three-dimensional (3D) image reconstructions. The imaging data of PMCT examinations of six drowning cadavers, aged 21–54 years, were analyzed. Twelve victims of sudden death from coronary artery disease (CAD) were chosen as a control group. After 3D bilateral lung images were reconstructed using image processing software, an interactive medical image control system was used to measure and analyze parameters including lung volume, lung volume ratio, mean CT value of the whole lung, and lung CT value distribution curves. Lung volume and lung volume ratio were used to assess the shape changes of the lung. Lung CT value distribution curves showed the corresponding number of pixels of the different CT values in the lung image. Lung volume was not significantly larger in drowning cases (mean 2 958 cm³) than in controls (mean 2 342 cm³). Lung volume ratio values in the drowning group (mean 0.3156) were greater than those in the control group (mean 0.2763); (P = 0.02). There was no significant difference between the drowning and control group in the mean CT value of the whole lung. There were differences between lung CT value distribution curves in drowning victims and controls, with drowning victims showing a single peak and CAD cases showing a bimodal distribution. Thoracic PMCT is helpful for the forensic medical diagnosis of drowning. Lung volume ratio and lung CT value distribution are potential indicators to distinguish between drowning and CAD.     

"堰塞湖"型社区治安管理模式探析 ——以北京市崔各庄东辛店村为例

基层治,则天下安。在新型城镇化纵深推进大背景下,对流动人口住处的疏解整治成为解决"大城市病"的必要手段,但实践中拆迁整治引发了"堰塞湖效应","堰塞湖效应"使得流动人口流入地社区演变成"堰塞湖"型社区。对此类社区的治安管理应革新以往防范式治安管理模式,有针对性地构建社区治安问题"审视→分析→反应→评估"的治安管理模式,根据"堰塞湖"型社区治安问题产生的原因及管理困境,形成一套从宏观到微观的逻辑严谨、运行有序的治安管理体系。具体可从树立"善治"和"共治"治安管理理念、促进流动人口社区融合和社区治安资源整合等方面入手解决"堰塞湖"型社区治安问题,以维护社区安全稳定。     

Empirical Evaluation of the Reliability of Photogrammetry Software in the Recovery of Three-Dimensional Footwear Impressions

This paper examines the reliability of Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry as a tool in the capture of forensic footwear marks. This is applicable to photogrammetry freeware DigTrace but is equally relevant to other SfM solutions. SfM simply requires a digital camera, a scale bar, and a selection of oblique photographs of the trace in question taken at the scene. The output is a digital three-dimensional point cloud of the surface and any plastic trace thereon. The first section of this paper examines the reliability of photogrammetry to capture the same data when repeatedly used on one impression, while the second part assesses the impact of varying cameras. Using cloud to cloud comparisons that measure the distance between two-point clouds, we assess the variability between models. The results highlight how little variability is evident and therefore speak to the accuracy and consistency of such techniques in the capture of three-dimensional traces. Using this method, 3D footwear impressions can, in many substrates, be collected with a repeatability of 97% with any variation between models less than ~0.5 mm.     

从十六大到十七大：中国共产党党内民主的逻辑演绎进程

党的十六大以来,从提出“党内民主是党的生命”到“要以扩大党内民主带动人民民主,以增进党内和谐促进社会和谐”的论断,中国共产党在新的历史条件下,根据世情、国情、党情的变化和新形势新任务对党的建设提出的新要求．把推进党内民主建设作为保持和发展党的先进性和加强党的执政能力的一项根本性建设,以改革创新的精神积极发展党内民主,在理论和实践上取得了重要进展。     

Fund Accounting from the Italian Early Tradition to the U.S. GAAP for Governments

Surprising correspondences emerge from the parallel investigation of fund accounting practices in Italian entities until the late nineteenth century and in the contemporary U.S. public sector. The analysis attempts to interpret similarities and differences in light of dissimilar environmental features, and wonders if the Italian tradition could have some explanatory capability on the U.S. present standards. The “fund” concept and its use are strictly similar; they are founded on information needs for governance and internal control. Contemporary requirements for democracy and transparency, and opportunities coming from modern ICT tools bring U.S. organizations to be accountable to the citizenry.