试论外国院外集团活动及其对美国对外政策的影响

美国作为全球唯一的超级大国 ,其对外政策关系到世界各国和国外利益集团的切身利益。各种代表国家和集团利益的外国院外集团为维护各自国家、民族和集团的利益 ,通过委托美国游说公司和具有特殊背景的人作为代理 ,在美国设立官方、民间机构 ,争取美国内具有共同利益的特殊集团的支持等方式进行院外活动 ,影响美国对外政策。因此 ,外国院外集团成为影响美国对外政策的重要因素 ,对美国对外政策的调整变化起着至关重要的作用     

后金融危机时代的全球地缘政治变局与中国的机遇

源于美国次贷危机的全球金融危机对世界格局产生了深远影响,国际体系正经历着冷战结束以来最大的地缘政治变动。后危机时代,国际体系将发生一系列深刻变化:新兴大国群体崛起,传统大国趋向衰落,国际战略力量分化重组,多极化发展到一个新的阶段;中美力量对比发生此消彼长的重大变化,中美关系将成为今后一个时期全球最重要的双边关系;大国关系趋向缓和,全球和地区地缘对抗色彩淡化;国际秩序酝酿结构性调整,中国面临历史性机遇。     

新安全视角下美国政府的气候政策

"人类安全"逐渐成为一种新的安全理念,环境气候问题等各种影响人类安全和福祉的非传统安全问题日益引起广泛关注。全球性安全威胁的严重程度则取决于治理框架的反应能力。包括气候政策、法律和机构在内的气候环境治理框架能够最大限度地削弱全球化冲突的根源,避免影响的发生或减缓其进程。奥巴马上任以来美国新政府能源、环境和应对气候变化政策出现较大调整,大力推动新能源法案来减缓气候变化。这一政策转向具有深刻的历史动因和政治基础,并将给美国经济复苏和美国企业的国际竞争力带来压力,加剧美国对外贸易摩擦和削弱其在国际气候环境合作中的领导地位。     

利益差异、战略分歧和美韩同盟关系的再调整

结盟是相关行为体为了维护自己的安全利益根据自己的安全战略而进行的安全合作安排,盟友之间因安全环境的变化而产生的战略分歧和利益差异也将会导致同盟关系的调整。美韩同盟是冷战时期形成的,具有防御性且主要着眼于半岛安全之同盟的性质,但进入后冷战时期,尤其是"9.11"事件之后,基于安全环境和战略利益的变化,美韩两国对同盟关系进行了较大幅度的调整,调整之后的美韩同盟虽然在联合指挥协调机制问题上还存在着一定的不确定性,但从整体上看美韩同盟在本世纪初的调整则是一个走向强化的过程。     

猪三毛滴虫长春株的形态观察及其5.8 S rRNA基因分析

对从长春地区腹泻仔猪结肠中分离到的1株毛滴虫进行了形态观察,并采用PCR扩增该毛滴虫的5.8SrRNA基因,测序后与国外已报道的三毛滴虫进行核酸同源性分析,并应用DNAStar软件绘制系统发育进化树。形态观察表明分离的毛滴虫为猪三毛滴虫。猪三毛滴虫长春分离株5.8SrRNA序列与国外已报道的三毛滴虫高度同源。系统发育进化树表明该序列与已报道的猪三毛滴虫5.8SrRNA(序列号U85966.1),牛胎儿三毛滴虫5.8SrRNA(序列号U85967.1,AF339736.1,AF466749.1,AF466750.1,AF466751.1)和T.mobiliensis5.8SrRNA(序列号U86612.1)同属于一个亚群,但与另1株猪三毛滴虫5.8SrRNA(序列号AY349190.1)亲缘关系较远。形态观察和5.8SrRNA基因分析表明,从长春地区分离的猪毛滴虫为猪三毛滴虫。     

The Confluence of Domestic and International Interests: U.S. Policy Toward Cuba, 1998–2001

This article examines the confluence of forces at work to shape U.S. policy toward Cuba since the late 1990s. Our approach examines four key factors involved in policymaking toward Cuba in this period: (1) the entry of new interest groups into the Cuba policy process and an "entrepreneurial" Congress; (2) the executive's constitutionally based interests; (3) bureaucratic interests; and (4) pressure from outside the United States. We examine U.S.–Cuba policy by describing each determinant in isolation and then by looking at the dynamic interaction among them, showing how they are linked together. In doing so, we argue that an analysis including multiple factors better explains U.S. policy toward Cuba than one that focuses on a single factor such as the power of the Cuban-American community.     

A Preliminary Investigation into the Accuracy of 3D Modeling and 3D Printing in Forensic Anthropology Evidence Reconstruction,

There is currently no published empirical evidence‐base demonstrating 3D printing to be an accurate and reliable tool in forensic anthropology, despite 3D printed replicas being exhibited as demonstrative evidence in court. In this study, human bones (n = 3) scanned using computed tomography were reconstructed as virtual 3D models (n = 6), and 3D printed using six commercially available printers, with osteometric data recorded at each stage. Virtual models and 3D prints were on average accurate to the source bones, with mean differences from ?0.4 to 1.2 mm (?0.4% to 12.0%). Interobserver differences ranged from ?5.1 to 0.7 mm (?5.3% to 0.7%). Reconstruction and modeling parameters influenced accuracy, and prints produced using selective laser sintering (SLS) were most consistently accurate. This preliminary investigation into virtual modeling and 3D printer capability provides a novel insight into the accuracy of 3D printing osteological samples and begins to establish an evidence‐base for validating 3D printed bones as demonstrative evidence.     

Constituent Communication Through Telephone Town Halls: A Field Experiment Involving Members of Congress

Telephone town halls are an increasingly prevalent method for members of Congress (MCs) to communicate with constituents, even while garnering popular criticism for failing to facilitate engagement and accountability. Yet scholars have paid little attention to the events and their effects, and even less to how they might be improved. To remedy this problem, we report on a field experiment in which four MCs joined their constituents in telephone town halls. Overall, participation in an event improved constituents’ evaluations of the format in general, and of the MC in particular. Furthermore, we studied how these events might be improved by evaluating a reform—a single‐topic focus with predistributed briefing materials—designed to enhance deliberative interaction. This reform enhanced effects on opinions of the format without significantly altering effects on attitudes toward the MC. Our results suggest that telephone town halls hold promise for constituents, officeholders, and democratic practice.     

Automated estimation of the number of contributors in autosomal STR profiles

Estimating the number of contributors to mixed STR profiles can be complex. This study describes the nC-tool to assist DNA expert in this process. The nC-tool is based on the total allele count for PowerPlex® Fusion 6C profiles and showed improved performance when compared to the maximum allele count approach.     

A Computational Framework for Age‐at‐Death Estimation from the Skeleton: Surface and Outline Analysis of 3D Laser Scans of the Adult Pubic Symphysis

In forensic anthropology, age‐at‐death estimation typically requires the macroscopic assessment of the skeletal indicator and its association with a phase or score. High subjectivity and error are the recognized disadvantages of this approach, creating a need for alternative tools that enable the objective and mathematically robust assessment of true chronological age. We describe, here, three fully computational, quantitative shape analysis methods and a combinatory approach that make use of three‐dimensional laser scans of the pubic symphysis. We report a novel age‐related shape measure, focusing on the changes observed in the ventral margin curvature, and refine two former methods, whose measures capture the flatness of the symphyseal surface. We show how we can decrease age‐estimation error and improve prior results by combining these outline and surface measures in two multivariate regression models. The presented models produce objective age‐estimates that are comparable to current practices with root‐mean‐square‐errors between 13.7 and 16.5 years.