Crises of confidence: Rhetorical constraints for incumbent party successors

Crises of confidence have plagued the American presidency since the introduction of television into the political sphere. Recognizing from previous research that unpopular incumbents use rhetoric in an effort to regain their credibility, this study looks at these rhetorical choices to see how they constrain or provide opportunities for the incumbent party's successors. Specifically, the study looks at the rhetoric surrounding instances where presidents have dropped 20 points in Gallup approval ratings within the last two years of their terms.

The study reveals that an unpopular incumbent's interest in regaining the public's faith is frequently at odds with his successor's interests. Incumbents need to remove themselves as the cause of the crisis, convince the public that they have the solution to the problem, and bide enough time to affect the situation. These choices tend to constrain the simplicity, flexibility, and timeliness of the successor's choices for rhetorically resolving the crises.     

Question wording and mass policy preferences: The comparative impact of substantive information and peripheral cues

Understanding the dynamics of mass political behavior requires attention to the mechanisms and processes citizens use in evaluating political affairs. At its structural core, a political appraisal has much in common with most of the other decisions individuals must make each day. Consequently, insight can be gained by examining political judgments from the perspective of those psychological theories concerned with information processing and decision making. More specifically, because the American citizen typically must maximize cognitive efficiency when evaluating political phenomena, those psychological mechanisms that facilitate expedience and simplicity in decision making are likely to operate on a great diversity of political judgments. Hence theoretical perspectives concerning the role of heuristic principles of judgment may be of considerable utility for the study of mass political behavior. One such perspective, the heuristic‐systematic model, is discussed. The tenets of the heuristic‐systematic model guide quasi‐experimental examination of the influence of variance in question wording on public support for the Reagan defense build‐up. Results indicate that source cues enable individuals to apply source evaluations when forming policy assessments but that the impact of source cues is overwhelmed when individuals are simultaneously exposed to relevant policy information.     

Television,Power, and the Public in Russia,by Ellen Mickiewicz

In the fall of 1994 a nonpartisan and nonprofit voter information organization Project Vote Smart-designed and implemented an education project for "atrisk" voters in northern California. The Project Vote Smart (PVS) effort was a systematic attempt to provide typically nonvoting groups both information and incentive to participate in the November general election. The results presented here suggest that the receipt of PVS materials did not directly increase the likelihood of voting or election interest. However, the receipt of PVS materials did make voters feel better about the resources they had to bring to bear on electoral choices.     

Scandinavian Prospects for a Place‐Based Randomized Experiment on Burglary Reduction

Despite their widespread implementation, there is a surprising absence of clear‐cut, unambiguous evidence concerning the effectiveness of situational crime prevention approaches (e.g. alarms, neighborhood watch, property‐marking) on residential burglary. This absence of evidence—which should not be confused with a presence of contradictory evidence—stems most notably from the fact that very few of the programs enacted to date have been evaluated under controlled, experimental conditions. The current article describes problems with previous evaluations and advocates the use of a place‐based, randomized experimental design—which this author argues should be easier to implement in Scandinavia than elsewhere.     

Towards a Theory of Institutionalized Judicial Exceptionalism

What happens when the exception becomes the norm, what happens when the law becomes a form for that which cannot have a legal form, that is, the political? The focus of this article is a form of power politics that is institutionalised and set up to work side by side with the existing legal system as a sort of normalized, co‐ordinated court procedure, initiated with the aim of subjecting specific groups (terrorists, criminals) to extended regulatory control and enforcement. These strategic bureaucratic mechanisms of exclusion appear as security enforced measures, which side by side with the existing ‘normal’ legal system govern a specific judicial‐political area. The normalised (or rooted, if one wishes) incorporation of extra‐judicial authority within the legal system will in the article be refered to as institutionalised judicial exceptionalism. The purpose of the article is to theorise and conceptualise the in many ways murky or indistinct phenomenon of institutionalised judicial exceptionalism.This task includes suggesting a model capable of assimilating within its theory the displacement in the relationship between the state, the law and the citizen that stems from the fact that the ever more securitized discourses on terrorism and crime increasingly take priority over the ordinarily non‐derogable principle of equality before the law.     

Chronic Offenders or Socially Disadvantaged Youth? Institutionalized Males as Missing Cases in School‐based Delinquency Research

Previous criminological studies comparing institutional youth populations with community samples have for the most part focused on youths institutionalized primarily as a result of involvements in delinquency. The present study compares levels of social disadvantage and criminal involvement within a nationally representative sample of Swedish schoolboys with those of a national population of institutionalized males that includes both serious young offenders and youths institutionalized for other reasons. Whilst at the aggregate level, mean levels of offending are higher within the institutional sample, the institutional population includes youths from across the entire range of levels of offending. Levels of social disadvantage are substantially elevated among the institutionalized males by comparison with the school sample. The study notes that institutionalized samples, where these include both young offenders and youths institutionalized for other reasons, may provide a fruitful ground for life‐course research into the way involvements in crime interact with other indicators of social disadvantage to affect the likelihood of continued marginalization into adulthood.     

Binary logistic regression models enable miRNA profiling to provide accurate identification of forensically relevant body fluids and tissues

Numerous studies have demonstrated the ability to identify the body fluid of origin of forensic biological stains using messenger (mRNA) profiling. However, the size of the amplification product used in these assays (100–400 bases) may not be ideal for use with environmentally degraded samples. MiRNA profiling represents a potential alternative to mRNA profiling, since the small size of the miRNAs (∼22 bases) might still permit their detection in degraded stains. Previously, we reported the first study involving the forensic use of microRNA (miRNA) profiling, which required screening of 452 candidates. Since our initial screening, hundreds of novel miRNAs have been identified. We have therefore evaluated additional miRNA candidates to further improve the sensitivity and specificity of the body fluid assays. Consequently we have expanded our body fluid identification panel to include 18 miRNAs (comprising 5 original and 13 novel miRNAs). This panel permits the identification of all forensically relevant body fluids and, uniquely, includes miRNAs for the identification of skin.Using normalized miRNA expression data, we constructed body fluid specific binary logistic regression models to permit an accurate identification of the body fluid of interest. Using the developed models, we have obtained 100% accuracy in predicting the body fluid of interest.     

Changing Agendas in Australian Indigenous Policy: Federalism,Competing Principles and Generational Dynamics

This paper identifies two periods of punctuated change in the content and style of Australian Indigenous policy in the last fifty years. It also identifies a third period in which attention to Indigenous policy was heightened through the nationalisation of land issues already well‐established on the agendas of sub‐national jurisdictions. The paper relates all three periods to the changing federal institutions of Australian Indigenous policy, with the Commonwealth slowly exploring its post‐1967 role as a national government in Indigenous affairs. In later sections, the paper identifies some more conceptual bases of changing policy agendas, through ideas of the competing principles of equality, choice and guardianship and the generational moral dynamics of Indigenous affairs.     

Comment on Jean L. Cummings and Denise DiPasquale's “The Low‐Income Housing Tax Credit: An Analysis of the First Ten Years”

Abstract

The Low‐Income Housing Tax Credit (housing credit) that Cummings and Di‐Pasquale portray is effective, efficient, and healthy. However, rapid changes in the industry have turned some of their data stale, and the absence of suitable context and information invalidate some key analyses and findings. Moreover, the researchers sometimes seem to see the glass as 10 percent empty instead of 90 percent full. A practitioners’ perspective is more positive.

The housing credit generates an array of public benefits while harnessing private investors’ business discipline. Genuinely low‐income tenants occupy the housing. The housing revitalizes low‐income communities. Properties are in good financial and physical condition. The housing credit is also cost effective. The economic fundamentals of producing low‐income rental housing, not the housing credit, necessitate substantial subsidies. A remarkably high proportion of the federal tax‐credit subsidy goes into the housing, and investor returns are modest. Nonprofit‐sponsored production appears to cost more because nonprofits are prominent in high‐cost locations and for other similar reasons, not because nonprofit developers are inefficient.