The Sanctions-Perceptions Link in a Model of School-based Deterrence

This paper reports a study examining associations between objective indicators of the level of discipline within schools and students’ perceptions of the strictness of discipline. Data were analyzed from the National Education Longitudinal Survey (NELS), a nationally representative panel study of eighth grade students attending public and private schools in 1988. We find evidence for an association between objective and perceived risk of discipline in models that examine the covariation of these two constructs at several cross sections, and in models of change in perceptions as a function of change in school sanctioning climate. Moreover, these associations were strongest in small and less disordered schools.

THE AMERICAN RESPONSE TO PAKISTANI AND IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION: A STUDY IN PARADOX

This article explores the paradox in the reaction of the United States to the two different proliferation cases: Pakistan's proliferation and Iran's weaponization effort. The article tries to find answer to the following key question; why the United States, as one of the guardians of the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) which would prefer to see a region that is entirely free of weapons of mass destruction, ultimately has accepted Pakistan's proliferation, while imposed considerable amount of pressure to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

The paper posits that number of factors explain such differences; first, and at the theoretical level, Pakistan was never considered an “irrational” and “messianic” state like Iran, but regarded as a country with a certain degree of cold-war type nuclear rationality. Second and at the applied level, while Pakistan was a US ally with not having a history of challenging the United States, Iran has been considered enemy and a threat toward the US interest.

Third, while Pakistan's nuclear arsenal was viewed as a defensive mean against overwhelming strength of India, Iran's possible nuclear arsenal considered to be for offensive uses against the United States and Israel. The fourth factor pertains to the consequences of proliferation, which is what happens when Iran's neighboring countries may feel threatened by Iranian nuclear weapon and proceed to develop their own arsenal. Fifth factor deals with the possible Iran's temptation to give some nuclear material to a terror group in which made the United States serious in preventing Iran's weaponization. Last but not least, Israel was not involved to pressure and agitate against Pakistan, while it was applied a tremendous pressure against Iran to prevent it from achieving nuclear weapons.     

刑罚应该怎么样:一般预防的规诫

一般预防对刑罚有一套规诫，即刑罚的遏制性、有效性、必要性、相应 性、确定性、及时性与通晓性。遏制性指刑罚以遏制犯罪的目的，它构成一般预防的 首要规诫，其它规诫都由其派生而来。有效性指刑罚必须具有遏制犯罪的作用。必 要性是指刑罚应该以足以遏制犯罪为必要，并足以遏制犯罪为限度。确定性是指刑 罚应该是不可避免的。相应性是指刑罚应该与犯罪相适应。及时性是指刑罚与犯罪 相联系的时间应该尽量紧凑。通晓性是指刑罚应该为大众所知晓。就一般预防论者 所提出的诸种规诫既有其合理性，也有其不合理性。     

The Impact of State Laws Protecting Abortion Clinics and Reproductive Rights on Crimes Against Abortion Providers: Deterrence, Backlash, or Neither?

Since Roe v. Wade, most states have passed laws either restricting or further protecting reproductive rights. During a wave of anti-abortion violence in the early 1990s, several states also enacted legislation protecting abortion clinics, staff, and patients. One hypothesis drawn from the theoretical literature predicts that these laws provide a deterrent effect and thus fewer anti-abortion crimes in states that protect clinics and reproductive rights. An alternative hypothesis drawn from the literature expects a backlash effect from radical members of the movement and thus more crimes in states with protective legislation. We tested these competing hypotheses by taking advantage of unique data sets that gauge the strength of laws protecting clinics and reproductive rights and that provide self-report victimization data from clinics. Employing logistic regression and controlling for several potential covariates, we found null effects and thus no support for either hypothesis. The null findings were consistent across a number of different types of victimization. Our discussion contextualizes these results in terms of previous research on crimes against abortion providers, discusses alternative explanations for the null findings, and considers the implications for future policy development and research.     

The Silence of the Lambdas: Deterring Incapacitation Research

This essay provides an economist’s perspective on criminological research into incapacitation effects on crime. Our central argument is that criminologists would do well to substantially scale back the enterprise of trying to estimate the various behavioral parameters central to a micro-level approach to measuring incapacitation effects, including the annual rate of offending outside of prison (λ) and the lengths of criminal careers. One problem with this line of research is practical: for example, mean estimates of self-reported criminal activity by incarcerated prisoners are quite sensitive to reports by the most criminally active offenders. But the larger concern is conceptual—the incapacitation effects from a given change in sentencing policy may be undermined by the possibility of replacement effects, and at the same time omit other benefits that may arise from deterrent effects on crime. A more promising approach is to identify plausibly exogenous changes in sentencing policy in order to estimate the net impact on crime from the combined effects of incapacitation, deterrence and replacement.

德、美证据排除规则的比较——我国确立刑事证据规则之经验借鉴

非法证据的排除规则是目前我国论证刑事证据立法中的一个热点问题。在近代 ,美国和德国作为英美法系和大陆法系的典型代表国家在设立和发展这个规则的立法和司法实践方面取得了丰富的经验。通过对两国排除规则的内涵 ,设立排除规则所要达到的目的 (或称为排除规则的理念 ) ,排除规则的范围 ,运用排除规则的限制等进行比较研究 ,将有助于我国设立排除规则     

俄罗斯的核威慑政策

俄罗斯的核威慑政策是俄核政策的核心,它随俄国内外安全环境的交化而变化,表现出一定的阶段性特征,经历了由不成熟到较为成熟的发展过程.尽管俄罗斯的核威慑政策在完成政策目标方面的效能有限,但却是俄维护其核心利益不可或缺的手段.中国与俄罗斯有某些类似的安全境况,因此,俄罗斯核威慑政策实践对中国有一定的启示意义.     

论中国核战略的演进与构成

中国核战略有两个基本出发点,即中国国家安全和人道主义。中国核战略具有很强的连续性,同时又根据国内外情况的变化有所调整,经历了一个从反核讹诈战略逐步演变到最低核威慑战略的进程。与其他核武器国家的核战略相似,中国的核战略也由五个具体政策构成:声明政策、发展政策、部署政策、使用政策、核裁军政策。由于具体情况和战略文化的不同,中国的核战略又具有自己的特色。