社会保障体系完善与社会经济可持续发展——基于城乡差异和区域差距视角的统计分析

社会经济的又好又快发展,是我国社会保障体系可持续发展的坚实依托。而消费需求不足则是长期制约我国经济持续健康发展的瓶颈之一,在当前国际金融市场动荡、外部需求下降的情形下,扩大内需就显得更加紧迫。本文从定量的角度开展我国社会保障支出水平与社会保障可持续发展影响因素的关联序分析,认为确保社会保障支出可持续发展是实现我国经济可持续发展的前提;从城乡差异和区域差异的视角,通过实证分析,探讨城乡社会保障水平与扩大内需之间的关系,考察了社会保障支出项目对居民消费作用的城乡差异和区域差距。在此基础上提出,改善社会保障水平区域不平衡现状、建立覆盖城乡的全国社会保障体系、实施全国统一的社会保险关系转续办法和建立多部门协同管理的社会保障统计体系,将是我国扩大内需、促进经济稳定增长的长期战略。     

Forensic Investigation of a Shawl Linked to the “Jack the Ripper” Murders

A set of historic murders, known as the “Jack the Ripper murders,” started in London in August 1888. The killer's identity has remained a mystery to date. Here, we describe the investigation of, to our knowledge, the only remaining physical evidence linked to these murders, recovered from one of the victims at the scene of the crime. We applied novel, minimally destructive techniques for sample recovery from forensically relevant stains on the evidence and separated single cells linked to the suspect, followed by phenotypic analysis. The mtDNA profiles of both the victim and the suspect matched the corresponding reference samples, fortifying the link of the evidence to the crime scene. Genomic DNA from single cells recovered from the evidence was amplified, and the phenotypic information acquired matched the only witness statement regarded as reliable. To our knowledge, this is the most advanced study to date regarding this case.     

Domestic migrants' responsiveness to electoral mobilization under authoritarianism: Evidence from China's grassroots elections

This study examines citizens' responsiveness to electoral mobilization under authoritarianism by studying the turnout of domestic migrants in China's grassroots elections. While a large literature on authoritarian elections has focused on coercion and material benefits as tactics dictators often use to promote turnout, we argue that social pressure from the community and its leaders plays a crucial role in mobilizing authoritarian constituents. Employing data from the China Labor Dynamics Survey (2012), we show that migrants who share traits with local residents, such as dialect, are more likely to be mobilized to vote, because they are more responsive to local cadres' mobilization efforts and feel more connected to the community. Conversely, we find no support for an explanation rooted in channels of communication. We confirm the findings using an instrumental variable approach. Our findings imply that street-level mobilization for authoritarian elections takes advantage of various social factors in more subtle and embedded ways than is typically assumed.     

Legal Recognition of Plural Unions: Is A Nonmarital Relationship Status the Answer to the Dilemma?

Intimate relationships involving three or more adults are increasingly visible in American society. Multiparty relationships, which are also known as plural unions, mainly take two different forms: systemic polygyny and polyamory. Family law currently denies recognition to all plural unions. Granting legal recognition to multiparty relationships would advance the goal of family pluralism and expand access to valuable legal protections. However, the possibility of granting official recognition to plural unions must be approached with caution, because systemic polygyny poses a serious risk of harm to women and children arising from the imposition of oppressive gender roles. A possible solution to this dilemma lies in offering a formal nonmarital status (such as civil union, domestic partnership, reciprocal beneficiary, or designated beneficiary) to participants in plural unions. As a result of their differing attitudes toward marriage, polyamorists would be likely to embrace a nonmarital relationship status, while participants in systemic polygyny would most likely reject it. Thus, providing a nonmarital status for plural unions could allow polyamorists to obtain the benefits of relationship recognition, without placing the government's seal of approval on the oppressive aspects of systemic polygyny.     

优化营商环境构建新发展格局

受新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行、中美贸易战以及逆全球化思潮的影响,国内经济发展形势面临着前所未有的困难。党的十九届五中全会提出要"不断提高贯彻新发展理念、构建新发展格局能力和水平,为实现高质量发展提供根本保证"。优化营商环境是一项事关产业转型升级、新旧动能转换、综合竞争力提高以及经济发展质量提升的长期工程,是中央反复多次提出的发展要求。当前,为了促进国内国际双循环新发展格局的形成,必须借鉴国内外先进经验,打造透明高效的政务环境,营造公平公正的市场环境,构建健全的法律环境,吸引全球优质资本来我国投资,以巩固并提升我国的竞争力。     

Risk and Protective Factors for Recurrent Intimate Partner Violence in a Cohort of Low-Income Inner-City Women

The purpose of this study was to identify longitudinal predictors of any (versus no) episodes of recurrent intimate partner violence (IPV) and their severity among low-income inner-city women. A secondary analysis was conducted on data from an inception cohort of 321 previously abused women from the Chicago Women’s Health Risk Study. In a multivariable logistic regression model, pregnancy, frequency of IPV in the year prior to the baseline interview, and the partner’s use of power and control tactics increased the odds of recurrent IPV during the follow-up period and leaving an abusive partner reduced the odds. In a multivariate proportional odds logistic regression model, partner violence outside the home was associated with higher severity of recurrent IPV, but leaving an abusive partner was not. The results suggest that, for low-income women, leaving an abusive partner may reduce the risk of recurrent victimization without increasing severity of the recurrent attacks that do occur.     

Spouse Abuse and Child Abuse by Army Soldiers

This study analyzed data collected by the U.S. Army’s Family Advocacy Program, the group primarily responsible for family violence prevention, identification, evaluation, treatment, and follow-up on Army installations. Patterns of spouse abuse and child abuse perpetrated within a five year period (2000–2004) were examined in a sample of 10,864 Army Soldiers who were substantiated for family violence offenses. Three groups of family violence offenders were compared: (1) those who perpetrated spouse offenses only; (2) those who perpetrated child offenses only; and (3) those who perpetrated both spouse and child offenses. Results showed that the majority of substantiated family violence offenders were spouse offenders who had not committed child abuse (61%), followed by child offenders who had not committed spouse abuse (27%), and finally those who committed both spouse and child offenses (12%). The three groups of family violence offenders differed in terms of the types of abuse they perpetrated (neglect of children, emotional abuse, physical abuse, and sexual abuse), their experiences of being a spouse abuse victim, and sociodemographic characteristics. Twelve percent of all spouse abusers committed multiple spouse abuse incidents, and 10% of all child abusers committed multiple child abuse incidents.     

Parent–Child Interaction Therapy with Domestic Violence Populations

Domestic violence continues to be a significant social problem impacting our society. Battered women and their children experience a myriad of negative consequences as a result of domestic violence. Of the possible negative sequelae that mothers and children experience, the disrupted parent–child relationship has received relatively little attention in the literature. Though psychosocial interventions are available to treat women who experience violence and children who witness violence, few interventions focus on the parent–child relationship. This article describes parent–child interaction therapy (PCIT), a relationship-based intervention. Although not initially developed to treat domestic violence, PCIT has unique characteristics that make it a promising intervention with this population. A rationale for the use of PCIT with battered women and their children is presented.     

Sources of Leader Support and Interstate Rivalry

Since segments of the selectorate differently experience costs and benefits from rivalry, the foreign policy choices of leaders reflect these domestic preferences. As a result, shifts in the composition of the domestic coalition of support backing the leader provide a fundamental determinant of rivalry termination. While previous research sought to explore the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination using regime transitions as a proxy for turnover of the state’s domestic ruling group, in practice this measure exhibits significant disconnection with the quantity of interest. Further, there are alternative pathways through which regime transitions may lead to rivalry termination. I test the relationship using new data from the CHISOLS project, finding that when rivals undergo a change in the source of support that maintains the leader in office, the probability of rivalry termination rises dramatically. I further find that regime transitions have an effect on the probability of rivalry termination that is independent of the effect of ruling coalition turnover. This study thus both asserts the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination and clarifies the mechanism by which the relationship operates.