六方会谈与东北亚安全合作机制

朝核危机的爆发使得构建东北亚安全机制再次成为各国关注的课题。为了解决朝核危机,相关各国先后举行了六轮六方会谈。六方会谈取得了一些进展,也推动了东北亚安全机制的建设,但是作为一个问题机制而存在的六方会谈,不仅受限于朝鲜半岛局势的发展,还深深受限于中美关系的发展和中日之间的结构性矛盾。因此,即使最终能够成功地解决朝核问题,东北亚安全合作机制的建立还将有待于进一步努力。     

监狱突发事件:从“危机处理”到“危机管理”

监狱突发事件往往会引起新闻媒介及社会公众的高度关注,一旦处置不当,就会给我们的工作造成被动。监管机关在应对突发事件的体制、机制上,存在着应急预案覆盖面仍然比较狭窄,监狱舆情监测和处置的机制仍不完善,监狱机关的"危机管理"仍变相为"危机处理"等问题。因此,对监狱突发事件应事前科学制定预案、事中规范处置、事后正确引导,进一步健全和完善突发危机事件和舆情处置工作机制,逐步实现由事后"危机处理"向全过程"危机管理"的转变。     

重大公共危机情境下治理效能：注意力分配转移的关键作用

地方干部是理解我国行政系统运转的基础,他们的行为深受行政系统注意力分配的影响。疫情早期受到系统性风险冲击,行政系统功能不彰,可从三个层面理解：面临制度间隙与危机情景,地方干部热衷承担过程性责任,规避结果性责任;传统激励机制惯性牵扯了突变情境新激励机制的效果;行政系统“死机”与疫情信息“黑洞”并存。面临这些挑战,最高决策层通过权力权威、激励与资源配置三种制度化方式引导干部群体注意力分配,有效推动行政系统由“多任务”转变为“危机处理”。结果显示,我国迅速取得疫情防控和复工复产双推进,彰显了“中国制度”的优势。     

论公共安全危机事件中公安机关与媒体的良性互动关系

我国当前正处于经济转轨和社会转型的关键时期,因人为的、社会的或管理的等因素引发各种社会矛盾和社会问题接连不断,由此导致公共安全危机事件日益凸显。由于民主政治建设的需要,保障和实现公众知情权,特别是公共安全危机事件的特点和媒体的特性,决定了媒体必然介入公安机关应对公共安全危机事件中。公安机关为及时有效地应对、管理、处置公共安全危机事件,提高公安机关驾驭社会治安能力和水平,履行好公安机关的任务和职责,必须与媒体建立良性互动关系。     

The 2019 Greek parliamentary election: retour à la normale

Abstract

The July 2019 parliamentary election was the first national election since Greece officially exited the eight-year bailout programmes in August 2018. It was preceded by three ballots on European Parliament, regional and municipal elections in May 2019, which served as a decompression valve for the electorate to punish the incumbent government and indicate a clear will for governmental change, since the conservative party ND won by a landslide. Whereas ND’s victory in the parliamentary election was anticipated, it was its scale that would define the shape of the new government. Increasing its score by 11.76 points since September 2015, ND won 39.85% of the vote, securing a comfortable majority of 158 out of 300 seats. This is the first majority government in Greece since 2011, marking the return of the country to a new normality. Even if SYRIZA failed to deliver the anti-bailout programme which had initially brought the party to the centre of electoral competition, it still gathered 31.53% of the vote, losing just 3.93 points since its last victory in 2015, hence securing its place as one of the two key actors in the new two-partyism. Party fragmentation was limited to six parliamentary parties instead of eight, with the neo-Nazi party, Golden Dawn, having lost its parliamentary representation.     

Cross-sector collaboration in times of crisis: findings from a study of the Funing tornado in China

ABSTRACT

The recent occurrence of several large-scale crises, such as the Wenchuan and Yaan earthquakes, the Gansu mudslides, the Tianjin port blast, and the Funing tornado, has led decision makers in China to increasingly recognise the need to engage non-government organizations (NGOs) in responding to crises. In this study, we establish a framework to analyse collaboration between government and NGOs during crises. This framework consists of four levels for cross-sector collaboration, and six conditions explaining them. The framework is used to analyse a case study on collaboration between local government and NGOs during the Funing tornado. Collaboration occurred at the information sharing and action coordination levels. We conclude the formal collaboration between government and NGOs in this case was still limited and it was not based on negotiations and interactions. Instead, it was essentially hierarchical and control-oriented. This type of collaboration might have the advantage of responding to crises in an effective way, but it comes at the cost of trust, commitment and reciprocity.     

Regionalism in Crisis: GCC Integration without Democracy

ABSTRACT

At the core of “disembedded regionalism” in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is an incapacity to foster more representative forms of politics that are responsive to citizens. Instead, elite-to-elite relations are a salient feature that characterises Gulf politics. A radical re-reading of Jürgen Habermas and John Rawls, applied to the GCC in the first two decades of the 21st century, confirms that top-down management of politics is conducive to conflict and disintegration as against integration, marginalising the agenda of multi-level governance within the subregion. Set against the backdrop of the current blockade/crisis, this critical rendition throws into sharp relief the non-democratic brand of GCC regionalism.     

Understanding the Magic of Credibility for Political Leaders: A Case of India and Narendra Modi

The field of political marketing has majorly benefited from the use of social media platforms. This has been true both for eastern and western contexts. The primary areas in political marketing that have majorly benefited from the social media usage have been the political leader and the evaluations of the leader by the voters. In the Indian context too, the use of social media techniques has been hailed as the Holy Grail of political marketing. This estimation is quite apposite. Nevertheless, what must not be forgotten is that the complexities of the bonding between political leaders and voters are not only premised primarily on the efficacy of social media techniques but also include other key dimensions. Thus, this article focuses on the importance of credibility as a key dimension. This dimension is inevitable to make social media techniques as effective as they are in political marketing. To substantiate this, we have comprehensively engaged with the fields such as traits of political leaders, crisis management and collaboration. These deliberations have been contextualized to the case of Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India. Further, these deliberations culminate in an effective framework. Academicians and practitioners of political marketing can extensively utilize this framework.     

Use of Eucalyptus DNA profiling in a case of illegal logging

Eucalyptus is grown world-wide for paper pulp, solid wood, and other industries. Theft or illegal cutting of the trees causes hardship to owners of plantations and countries whose economies rely on the sale and export of eucalyptus products. Unfortunately, many of these crimes go unpunished due to lack of forensic evidence.Over 1200 short tandem repeat (STR) markers have been identified in the genomes of genus Eucalyptus and related species. However, their importance and utility in aiding forensic investigations of wood theft have not been explored. This study evaluated nine STRs for diversity and applied them to a case involving suspected wood theft.As expected, three dinucleotide STR markers showed greater variability but resulted in harder to interpret profiles. Four STR tetranucleotide markers evaluated in this study were found to contain additional repeat structures (dinucleotide or trinucleotide) that enhanced their variability but resulted in profiles with peaks at multiple stutter positions and heterozygote peak imbalance. The most promising STR markers were EGM37 and EMBRA 1374. Though less variable, they yielded robust and reproducible DNA profiles.All nine STR markers were applied to a case involving suspected wood theft. Samples were collected from seized wood and from remaining stumps in a plantation. No DNA match was found, thus eliminating the evidence samples as having originated from the forest. Dendrochronology analysis also resulted in an exclusion. This case study represents the first report using STR markers in any eucalyptus species to provide DNA evidence in a case of suspected wood theft.     

试论我国心理危机干预机制构建的有效途径

大量研究表明重大突发事件和自然灾害的发生会对个体心理造成不同程度的伤害,有的甚至绵延几十年甚至伴随终生。我国的心理危机干预工作从新疆克拉玛依火灾事件开始,至今已有二十年,虽然得到了社会的关注,参与者也越来越多,现阶段干预工作中却仍然暴露出无序性、盲目性、重复性、缺乏持续性等问题。我国心理危机干预长效机制的构建,应从法制建设、政府角色、社区服务和人力资源建设等方面形成"政府为主导,社区为基本点"的格局。