Political Marketing Research in the 2000 U.S. Election

Abstract

It is not news that polls and other forms of marketing research are regularly employed to craft political strategy. What is new is that the 2000 U.S. election represented a turning point where political marketing research seems to take center stage. The print and broadcast media employed polls and other forms of research at levels far beyond anything ever seen before. At times, it appeared as if almost as much attention was being given to polls as was being given to the political candidates and the issues. This was clearly a new and important posturing of the role of political marketing research. With this as a backdrop, the current article compares polls and other forms of political research-focusing on what went wrong and what was right in terms of the use of polls, focus groups and Internet research during the 2000 U.S. election. The article ends with the presentation of some exploratory research that examines insights about respondents' opinions regarding the impact of political polls.     

执法办案风险评估预警工作的困境与对策研究

上海检察机关自2011年开展执法办案风险评估预警工作。从风险评估、风险预警、风险处置三个方面对该项工作的现状作出分析,对实践中存在的困境进行研究,并提出相应的对策。     

“醉酒型”危险驾驶罪的量刑标准——以司法理性与审判效率的契合为视角

鉴于＂醉酒型＂危险驾驶罪在《刑法修正案（八）》施行一年之际暴露出的诸多困境,司法实践应从出罪途径和量刑标准两个方面来破解定罪界限与量刑失衡现状：通过反证抽象危险的不存在及适用总则第13条来构建合理的出罪路径,以期坚守司法理性和刑法的谦抑性;通过量刑规范化来统一量刑标准和程序参与,确定从量刑起点直至宣告刑中各个环节的标准和影响幅度。从而＂以看得见的形式＂实现量刑的规范和公正,最大限度地实现司法的公正、效率和社会认可。     

传媒对犯罪的消极影响

传媒的低俗倾向直接影响人对事物的认知,刺激犯罪欲望;传媒传播的有害信息,对犯罪人有一定的暗示作用;传媒展现的犯罪模式可能成为犯罪人仿效的范例,从而导致犯罪行为的发生。因此,传媒对犯罪的消极影响我们必须足够重视,及时预警。     

Workplace Assessment of Targeted Violence Risk: The Development and Reliability of the WAVR‐21

This study describes the development of the WAVR‐21, a structured professional judgment guide for the assessment of workplace targeted violence, and presents initial interrater reliability results. The 21‐item instrument codes both static and dynamic risk factors and change, if any, over time. Five critical items or red flag indicators assess violent motives, ideation, intent, weapons skill, and pre‐attack planning. Additional items assess the contribution of mental disorder, negative personality factors, situational factors, and a protective factor. Eleven raters each rated 12 randomly assigned cases from actual files of workplace threat scenarios. Summary interrater reliability correlation coefficients (ICCs) for overall presence of risk factors, risk of violence, and seriousness of the violent act were in the fair to good range, similar to other structured professional judgment instruments. A subgroup of psychologists who were coders produced an ICC of 0.76 for overall presence of risk factors. Some of the individual items had poor reliability for both clinical and statistical reasons. The WAVR‐21 appears to improve the structuring and organizing of empirically based risk‐relevant data and may enhance communication and decision making.     

Information‐Theoretical Assessment of the Performance of Likelihood Ratio Computation Methods

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using, for example, Tippett plots. We propose empirical cross‐entropy (ECE) plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to information theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance with both Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criterion to determine whether a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.     

Probabilistic Classification of Age by Third Molar Development: The Use of Soft Evidence

Abstract: This study introduces a method to classify individuals according to an age threshold, given sex and third molars’ dental maturity measured on the Demirjian scale by expressing uncertainty on dental evidence (soft evidence). We introduced a procedure to learn the parameters of the Naïve Bayes model, and we discussed two classification rules. The model was estimated and tested on 559 Italians aged 16–22. Two experts provided the dental evaluations, and the model was estimated for each of them. We evaluated the coherence of the evidence provided by the experts. Some indexes have been proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the models, emphasizing how the experts’ ability and the technology affect the results. We introduced two benchmarks, one based on the sample distribution per sex and age: in this case, probability of correct classification increases 22% and the proportion of false adults impressively decreases 80.2%; the other benchmark, obtained by simulating hard evidence, shows how the use of soft evidence increases the proportion of correct classification 3.1% and decreases the crucial proportion of false adults about 20%. Similarly, the proportion of false minors decreases about 5.3%.     

The Reliability of the Greulich and Pyle Atlas When Applied to a Modern Scottish Population

This study examines the reliability of age estimation utilizing the Greulich and Pyle atlas in relation to a modern Scottish population. A total of 406 left‐hand/wrist radiographs (157 females and 249 males) were age‐assessed using the Greulich and Pyle atlas. Analysis showed that there was a strong correlation between chronological age and estimated age (females R² = 0.939, males R² = 0.940). When age groups were broken down into year cohorts, the atlas over‐aged females from birth until 13 years of age. The pattern for males showed that the atlas under‐estimated age until 13 years of age after which point it consistently over‐aged boys between 13 and 17 years of age. This study showed that the Greulich and Pyle atlas can be applied to a modern population but would recommend that any analysis takes into account the potential for over‐ and under‐aging shown in this study.     

《特殊痕迹检验》课程考核模式的改革与实践

考核模式改革是我校＂教学重心转变＂工作中教学模式改革的重点和核心内容之一。本文通过对《特殊痕迹检验》课程考核模式的改革与实践,提出了适应本专业学生教学练战一体化的考核模式。