Predicting Peril or the Peril of Prediction? Assessing the Risk of CBRN Terrorism

Since the mid-1990s, academic and policy communities have debated the risk posed by terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons. Three major schools of thought in the debate have emerged: the optimists, the pessimists, and the pragmatists. Although these three schools of thought draw on the same limited universe of data on CBRN terrorism, they arrive at strikingly different conclusions. Given the highly subjective process of CBRN terrorism risk assessment, this article analyzes the influence of mental shortcuts (called heuristics) and the systemic errors they create (called biases) on the risk assessment process. This article identifies and provides illustrative examples of a range of heuristics and biases that lead to the underestimation of risks, the overestimation of risks and, most importantly, those that degrade the quality of the debate about the level of risk. While these types of biases are commonly seen as affecting the public's perception of risk, such biases can also be found in risk assessments by experts. The article concludes with recommendations for improving the CBRN risk assessment process.     

Screening for Substance Use Disorders as a Supplement to Caseworker Assessment Among Foster Care–Involved Families

Parental substance abuse is a major factor in families experiencing foster care placement, yet little is known about the potential of screening in determining risk or identifying subpopulations for which elevated risk occurs. One Midwestern state recently implemented screening. This research uses information gathered as part of the screen's implementation to conduct a latent class analysis. The research was extended to provide a detailed examination of differences in child and family characteristics across classes, and to compare the screen results with caseworker impressions. Three distinct typologies emerged, with the high-risk and moderate-risk designations comprising only one quarter of the cases.     

美欧发达国家“再工业化”对中国跨境资金流动的影响及对策

金融危机后,为了重振本土工业,美欧等发达国家将“再工业化”作为重塑竞争优势的重要战略,推出了大力发展新兴产业、鼓励科技创新、支持中小企业发展等政策和措施,使得贸易保护主义进一步抬头,国际贸易摩擦进一步加剧,贸易壁垒进一步抬高。关注“再工业化”背景下国际贸易以及政策的发展变化对跨境资金流动的可能影响,把握其趋势变化,对指导外汇管理工作,具有十分重要的意义。该文简要介绍了美国提出“再工业化”的背景,收集整理了美欧发达国家“再工业化”措施,分析了美欧发达国家“再工业化”对中国跨境资金流动的影响,提出了强化中国跨境资金流动管理的对策建议。     

反贪工作风险评估预警机制的构建

检察机关在反贪办案中构建独立的风险评估预警机制,不仅能促使检察机关正确行使职务犯罪侦查权,而且有利于检察机关参与并创新社会管理,防范社会风险。检察机关应在准确把握反贪工作风险评估预警的基础上,全面、严格实施评估预警方案,提升执法公信力,维护社会和谐稳定。     

论循证矫正效果评价机制的构建

评估/评价问题始终是现当代监狱发展的重要领域之一。没有对于矫正对象在刑事干预前后的准确评估/评价,我们根本不可能获得"何为有效"的重要信息。在现代统计科学、信息科学和实证主义的影响下,罪犯评估问题、社区矫正对象以及其他矫正对象的评估/评价一直是确保相关实务工作科学高效运作的基础。在循证矫正的构建和推行中,有必要明确评估/评价理论和机制的地位作用,以达到对矫正干预措施和矫正机制运作状况的充分了解,从而在符合"评估相关过程与业务"的原则下有序开展矫正实践工作。     

Historical perspective and better regulatory governance: An agenda for institutional reform

Compared to economics, sociology, political science, and law, the discipline of history has had a limited role in the wide‐ranging efforts to reconsider strategies of regulatory governance, especially inside regulatory institutions. This article explores how more sustained historical perspective might improve regulatory decisionmaking. We first survey how a set of American regulatory agencies currently rely on historical research and analysis, whether for the purposes of public relations or as a means of supporting policymaking. We then consider how regulatory agencies might draw on history more self‐consciously, more strategically, and to greater effect. Three areas stand out in this regard – the use of history to improve understanding of institutional culture; reliance on historical analysis to test the empirical plausibility of conceptual models that make assumptions about the likelihood of potential economic outcomes; and integration of historical research methods into program and policy evaluation.     

制度廉洁性评估的两种实践模式及其比较

制度廉洁性评估作为中国反腐倡廉建设的创新举措,在实践中形成了"经验式推进"和"标准化操作"两种实践性模式,两种模式都为完善制度廉洁性评估工作提供了可行性思路,也各具特色和优点,同时也存在着各自的局限性。推进和完善制度廉洁性评估有必要将两种实践性模式进行整合,以标准化操作模式为引导,建立制度廉洁性评估基础指标体系,以经验式推进模式为平台,建立制度廉洁性评估指导性案例库,通过制度廉洁性评估指导机制提升制度廉洁性评估的正向竞争性,促使制度廉洁性评估工作实现螺旋式上升和波浪式前进。     

清代的中越边境事件及其影响略论（1644-1885）

1644-1885年间,中越陆路边境地区因"匪乱"、偷越国界,或其他意外原因引发多起边境事件,并引起两国交涉.在处理这些事件过程中,清王朝不干涉安南(越南)内政,越南各王朝统治者都注意维护宗藩关系,因而这些交涉加深了两国的和平友好关系,在一定程度上强化了两国统治者之间的宗藩关系.     

Conflict Assessment in Energy Infrastructure Siting: Prospects for Consensus Building in the Northern Pass Transmission Line Project

As energy demand grows rapidly worldwide, power line infrastructure will continue to be a major development planning challenge. This study considers the environmental conflict that has arisen over a transnational transmission line project between Canada and the United States. A qualitative conflict assessment is presented to define the parameters for consensus that could prevent protracted litigation between stakeholders. Proactively designing a process to encourage consensus building during the early development phase remains the most critical determinant of compromise. In this article, we argue that in this case a consensus‐building effort could be feasible if certain design requirements were met, including gaining the participation of key stakeholders, paying attention to trust, and focusing on the issues specific to this transmission line rather than to a larger energy discussion. The research shows that despite potential pitfalls, reaching more widely accepted and ecologically sensitive solutions to environmental conflicts through participatory and collaborative approaches is possible and worth the effort.     

Long‐Run Labor Market Effects of the Job Corps Program: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Experiment

Job Corps is the nation's largest and most comprehensive career technical training and education program for at‐risk youth ages 16 to 24. Using the sample from a large‐scale experiment of the program from the mid‐1990s, this article uses tax data through 2015 (20 years later) to examine long‐term labor market impacts. The study finds some long‐term beneficial effects for the older students, with employment gains of 4 percentage points, 40 percent reductions in disability benefit receipt, and 10 percent increases in tax filing rates in 2015. For these students, program benefits exceeded program costs from the social perspective. This study is the first to establish that a national program for disconnected youth can produce long‐term labor market gains, and can be a positive investment made for society. The results suggest that intensive, comprehensive services that focus on developing both cognitive and noncognitive skills are important for improving labor market prospects for this population.