Who's to blame? How performance evaluation and partisanship influence responsibility attribution in grand coalition governments

This article examines a neglected but fundamental facet of electoral accountability: responsibility attribution under grand coalition governments. Contrary to much of the existing literature that focuses on retrospective voting, this article focuses on responsibility attribution testing the effect of perceived performance of the government and partisan attachments for parties in grand coalition governments. Novel survey questions on responsibility attribution from Austria and Germany show that when the lines of responsibility are blurred, partisanship functions as an important heuristic for all voters including supporters of opposition parties. These findings have important implications for our understanding of electoral accountability and political representation in grand coalition governments.     

安全焦虑、信号传递与中国对东南亚国家的战略安抚

对于崛起的中国而言,采取系统性战略安抚,树立自我克制的负责任大国形象有助于赢得周边国家信任。然而,在二十多年睦邻外交实践中,东南亚国家始终对崛起的中国的意图感到焦虑,这种担忧因地理邻近性与实力不对称而变得更加敏感。2008年以来,东南亚国家对中国"核心利益"话语、逐步增多的外交制裁以及多边倡议给予了较大关注。面对东南亚国家上升的安全忧虑,中国外交主动释放安抚信号增信释疑。与强制策略不同,安抚策略关注如何从正面激励换取他国的信任。立足于对现有文献的批判性整合,重新梳理善意信号的呈现形式(情感-物质)与成本来源(内生-外生)两大维度,可以从逻辑上生成四种睦邻安抚信号的表达路径:睦邻话语、相互依赖、无私援助与制度约束。面对中国的吸引与安抚,东南亚国家也会主动进行试探与甄别,以讨价还价、社会化、对冲试探和制度牵制四种方式,对中国释放的安抚信号进行评估。由于安抚信号的可信度评估具有主观性,东南亚国家对中国安抚信号存在不同理解,中国外交需换位思考并理解东南亚国家的试探心理。     

三十年来我国满铁研究现状述评

满铁（南满洲铁道株式会社）是日本设在中国最大的“国策会社”,是日本在中国搜集军事、政治、社会、文化等情报的特殊机构。日本战败后,满铁大部分资料留存于中国,分散于中国国内的数十家图书馆。这批规模巨大、卷帙浩繁的满铁资料,是我们研究东北亚近现代史、近现代中日关系史和中国东北地方史极为珍贵的第一手资料。三十年来我国的满铁文献资料,整理和出版及学术研究都取得了令人瞩目的成就,但也存在一些问题需要引起我们的重视。     

Longitudinal Effects of Perceived Maternal Approval on Sexual Behaviors of Asian and Pacific Islander (API) Young Adults

Data were obtained from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to examine the longitudinal association between Asian and Pacific Islander (API) adolescents’ perceptions of maternal approval of their sexual activity and contraception use, and four sexual outcomes during young adulthood. The study includes a nationally representative sample of 1,195 API adolescents. Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the associations between predictors (Wave I) and outcomes (Wave III), controlling for covariates. API adolescents who perceived that their mothers approved of their sexual activities were more likely to have engaged in sex before age 15, contracted HIV/Sexually Transmitted Diseases, had multiple sex partners, and paid money for sex during young adulthood. Findings highlight the need for parent–adolescent communication and parental involvement in preventing negative sexual health outcomes among API adolescents transitioning to young adulthood.

THE MISSING LINK IN GENERAL DETERRENCE RESEARCH*

Research on the deterrent effects of punishment falls into two categories: macro‐level studies of the impact of aggregate punishment levels on crime rates, and individual‐level studies of the impact of perceived punishment levels on self‐reported criminal behavior. For policy purposes, however, the missing link—ignored in previous research—is that between aggregate punishment levels and individual perceptions of punishment. This paper addresses whether higher actual punishment levels increase the perceived certainty, severity, or swiftness of punishment. Telephone interviews with 1,500 residents of fifty‐four large urban counties were used to measure perceptions of punishment levels, which were then linked to actual punishment levels as measured in official statistics. Hierarchical linear model estimates of multivariate models generally found no detectable impact of actual punishment levels on perceptions of punishment. The findings raise serious questions about deterrence‐based rationales for more punitive crime control policies.     

Missing links between regulatory resources and risk concerns: Evidence from the case of food safety in China

Do resources available to regulatory agencies matter for public perceptions of social risks? In this paper we use the case of food safety in China to empirically examine the relationship between regulatory resources and risk concerns. The multilevel model estimates suggest that neither regulatory revenue nor personnel is significantly related to public concerns over food safety. There is also no significant interaction effect between regulatory resources and food scandals. Despite the fact that sufficient fiscal revenue and manpower are the prerequisites of effective food safety regulation, they do not elicit more favorable public perceptions. These are the two missing links leading to the insignificant effect of regulatory resource inputs. First, ineffective distribution and deployment of resources and the lack of external participation retard the growth of regulatory capacity. Second, underinvestment in risk communication and the amplification effect of risks undermine regulatory legitimacy. We discuss the theoretical and policy implications of the results, and conclude with research limitations and suggestions for future research.     

不确定下的担忧：冷战后东盟国家对中国在地区安全角色的认知

冷战结束之后,东南亚地区国际局势发生了巨大的变化,然而对东盟国家来说,这种变化并没有让它们获得更多的安全感。它们一致的看法是,本地区所面临的最大威胁来自地区大国崛起所带来的地缘政治的不确定性,而这种不确定主要来自中国的稳定与未来发展的不可预测性,如何应对不确定所引发的担忧则构成了东盟国家对华政策的核心问题。     

重新犯罪风险评估的理论与方法

重新犯罪风险评估是罪犯出监前和社区矫正前的重要环节。重新犯罪风险评估中的难题是如何选取预测效度高的指标。提出重新犯罪风险评估模型,引入内隐联想测验方法,并指出犯罪人刑满释放前的敌意态度、特定的人格特征、犯罪风险知觉、社会适应性,可能是预测重新犯罪风险的良好指标。     

布鲁姆垣德感知与特殊性理论及其意义

劳伦斯·布鲁姆在针对"基于不偏不倚或任何原则之上的伦理"存在的缺陷进行的批评过程中,形成了他的道德感知与特殊性的理论,这一理论不但弥补了超验伦理学存在的某些理论缺陷,而且对我们追求确定性的道德认知和道德实践等都具有重要的启示。     

基于亮度感知权重的夜间图像去雾技术

目的对夜间雾天环境下成像设备获取的图像进行去雾和图像增强处理,以便给公安机关的图像侦查工作提供直观的侦查信息。方法首先基于夜间大气散射物理模型,采用通道差引导的低通滤波器估计环境照度;其次使用亮通道和暗通道先验分别估算图像中光源区和非光源区的环境透射率,然后采用一种亮度感知权重的方式将二者融合得出最终的混合环境透射率;最后对夜间大气模型公式进行求解获得去雾图像。在此基础上使用CLAHE和SoG算法对图像视觉效果进行增强。结果经过对大量实际案例和计算机合成的夜间雾天图像进行处理,实验结果表明本文采用的去雾与图像增强技术在客观评价方面:偏色检测因子降低65%、平均梯度提高233%、信息熵提高7%,相较于其他主流方法均占显著优势;在主观评价方面:本文方法能同时提升图像颜色动态范围、矫正图像偏色、增强图像暗部细节。结论基于亮度感知权重的夜间去雾与图像增强技术能够有效增强夜间雾天图像的暗部细节、提高图像对比度和解决图像偏色问题,能为公安机关的图像侦查工作提供更直观有效的信息。