International Relations and Policy Planning: The Method of Perspectivist Scenario Building

Since thoughts about the future cannot help but enter into our planning of policy, the International Relations community should make it an aim to help systematize these thoughts. One way of doing this is by developing a methodology for scenario building. Much extant work on scenario planning shares a key weakness that is well known in traditional socioeconomic planning, namely a tendency to reify current trends. In order to break with this tendency, this article sets out an approach that we call perspectivist scenario building. We also try to illustrate the points made and demonstrate the value added for planners by reflecting on our own experience in participation-oriented scenario work with Norwegian bureaucrats and politicians in the framework of a broad-scoped national scenario project for the Norwegian Government in the period between 1998 and 2001, called Norway 2030.     

公路客运企业安全保障运作模式研究

本文介绍了公路客运安全的国内外研究现状,分析了公路客运企业安全保障运作的一般流程,通过建立公路客运安全监控平台,提出了客运企业安全监控模式,以及所需的技术支持,从人、车、管理方面具体分析了客运企业的安全管理模式,最后提出了客运企业安全保障的发展方向。     

Parental Use of Physical Punishment as Related to Family Environment, Psychological Well-being, and Personality in Undergraduates

Childhood experiences of physical punishment were examined as related to perceptions of family environment during childhood and affective and personality outcomes of college students. From the 274 respondents who participated, scores were compared for the participants with the 75 highest and 75 lowest physical discipline scores based on the Conflict Tactics Scale (CTSPC-CA). Respondents who experienced the highest level of physical punishment in their families of origin reported higher family conflict, more negative parental relationships, greater family worries, more depressive symptoms, more perceived nonsupport, greater identity problems, and more negative social relationships. Respondents in the low physical punishment group reported higher positive family affect. Results suggest that experiencing physical discipline as a child may be related to one’s family environment and psychological well-being in young adulthood.     

Research on the Construction and Operation Mechanism of Modularized Social Governance System: Based on a Case-Study of Social Composite Subject of Hangzhou

Modularization is the process of dividing the system into certain modules from top to bottom for solving complex problems, and it provides a new insight into the redesign of governance mechanism for complex social systems. Taking Hangzhou social multiple agents as a case study, this paper discussed the construction and operation mechanism of the modularized social governance system. The study found that the construction of modularized social governance system included four basic stages: inter-organizational value identity, community governance construction, module definition and the streamline of the procedure. The operation mechanism of modularized social governance system is composed of a pyramid model, information assimilation model and information dissimilation model. Multiple social bodies make up a network community under the framework of top-level design, can realize "differences" and "similarities" in a variety of module units and enhance the governance capacity of the whole system.     

日本农业发展的困境及政策调整

日本农业发展一直以高关税、高补贴著称,尽管政权更迭,这一政策取向基本保持不变。但是随着国内外政治经济环境的变化,其农业政策也在不断进行调整、修正和补充。近年来,日本出生率下降、人口老龄化问题日益严重,农业劳动力减少,加之耕地面积降低,以及跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系(TPP)协议对农业影响的不确定性,日本农业政策亟需调整。2015年日本出台了新的《食品、农业与农村地区基本规划》,对今后5~10年的农业发展进行了规划。文章将以此为基础分析日本农业发展面临的困境,并简要介绍日本新的农业政策。     

Understanding Pathways to Family Dispute Resolution and Justice Reforms: Ontario Court File Analysis & Survey of Professionals

This article reports on two related studies about varying pathways to the resolution of family disputes and the effects of family justice reforms in Ontario: a survey of family court professionals (n = 118) and an analysis of 1,000 closed court files of family cases involving children. Both studies reveal that the vast majority of cases are resolved without a trial, often by negotiation. While professionals generally support family justice reform initiatives, there remain significant gaps in the implementation of these strategies. For example, many litigants do not attend information programs despite the requirement for mandatory attendance; there is limited use of mediation; the views of children are being sought in only a small number of cases; and there is a large proportion of self‐represented family litigants. Despite the increase in shared care and joint decision‐making arrangements, a majority of cases in the court file study were sole custody arrangements to the mother, whether the case was settled or resolved by trial. Mediation was associated with greater time of contact with the non–primary residential parent (usually the father).     

论重大责任事故罪的客观要件

重大责任事故罪在客观方面应当包括三要素：必须是违反有关安全管理的规定、造成重大伤亡事故或者其它严重后果、行为与结果之间有必然的因果关系。对生产、作业应做广义理解，包括第一产业、第二产业，还包括第三产业。违反安全管理规定的行为与结果之间还应当有必然的因果关系，这是行为人对事故后果负刑事责任的客观基础。     

附条件不起诉制度在中国的运行与构建

附条件不起诉制度是一种起诉裁量制度,虽然我国立法没有明确规定,但国内的一些检察机关进行了积极的探索。在我国建立附条件不起诉制度,有其合理性和必然性,国外的实践经验也证明了其可行性。但是,必须严格地规定附条件不起诉的对象、附加条件以及相关的程序问题,以确保该制度在我国取得最合理的效果。     

Macro economic model study depending on simple ratios for environmental order plans in regional planning

Preparation of environmental order plans at map scales of 1/100,000 or 1/50,000 becomes compulsory for every province in Turkey after 2006. These plans can also be referred as regional plans or sub regional plans. In regional planning studies including ＂environmental order plans＂, existence and accuracy of numeric data and correct use of these data are vital factors to the success of regional plans. There are two main variables used in regional planning studies. These are Gross Domestic Product （GDP） values and employment values of various sectors. The success of the plans heavily depends on the success of correct determination and projection of these regional economic values. The use of economic data in regional planning studies is the main subject of this article.     

略论监狱刑罚执行法律的实施状况与途径

监狱刑罚执行法律的有效实施是监狱工作依法进行的内在需求,监狱刑罚执行法律实施是监狱刑罚执行法律实施主体的行为或活动。我国监狱刑罚执行法律实施或多或少存在一些问题,因此,通过科学、完善的立法,建立监狱刑罚执行法律运行机制,提高执法水平等是监狱刑罚执行法律实施的必要途径。