基于马尔可夫转移概率的外来常住人口居住需求预测

住房供需矛盾的根本问题在于住房需求规模和需求结构如何。本文分析了外来常住人口的居住现状与居留意愿二者联动下对外来常住人口居住需求的影响,并利用灰色模型和马尔可夫(Morkov)转移概率的组合法对大城市外来常住人口的居住需求规模进行预测。通过Logistic模型分析发现,大城市外来常住人口的居住现状质量与居住需求成反比,居留意愿与居住需求成正比,通过灰色模型和Morkov转移概率矩阵方法预测得出一线城市外来常住人口的居住需求呈现上升趋势,2017年到2022年期间,总居住需求从1241万上升到1352万平方米,其中其他住房、政府提供住房和自购住房的居住需求逐年上升,租住私房的居住需求逐年下降。租住私房的居住需求最大,占比60%左右。外来务工人员的总居住需求下降,青年人员和引进人才的总居住需求上升,对比2017年四大城市外来常住人口的住宅供给与居住需求,得出目前四大城市的居住供给已超过居住需求。     

Public Opinion Surveys and USA Foreign Policy Towards Latin America in the Second World War

In this paper, the roles of public opinion polls and agency in foreign policymaking are examined. Based on documents uncovered from the National Archives and Rockefeller Archive Center, this paper presents a more comprehensive picture of the history of public opinion surveys and the shaping of US bureaucracy in their relation to foreign affairs. Further, the paper contends that policymakers are interested in public views pertaining to foreign policy issues, but that private interests (serving their own interpretations of national interest) shape public views, using new techniques as guiding tools.     

Status and emotions in Russian foreign policy

The importance of status concerns on Russia's foreign policy agenda has been increasingly observed. This preoccupation with status is particularly visible in Russia's relations with the West. Although strong claims about status in Russian foreign policy are frequently made in public and private by researchers, journalists, politicians, diplomats and other commentators, such claims often lack any closer theoretical or empirical justification. The aim of this introductory article is, therefore, to outline the basic components that form the research agenda on status. Status, if properly examined, helps us understand not only Russian foreign policy, put also present-day international politics and its transformation in a broader sense.In a first part, we identify the theoretical voids concerning the study of international status. In a second part we outline the drivers and logic of status concerns, considering in particular identity theories, psychological approaches and existing research regarding emotions. The presented research agenda on status, derived from International Relations and related theories, provides a well-structured tool-box for investigating the link between status, identity and emotions in Russian foreign policy vis-à-vis the West. In a third part we present the key questions rose by the contributors to this Special Issue and summarize their main findings.     

焦虑的“小妞”：中国小妞电影中女性形象体认

作为备受都市女性观众欢迎的“小妞电影”不仅是一种电影类型，更是剖析当下都市女性生存与发展状态的重要途径。而对“小妞电影”中的女性身体与都市空间的仔细观照是体认片中人物乃至当下都市女性形象的有效策略。“小妞电影”集中且深刻地折射出当下社会都市女性所存有的精神焦虑，这是不同于传统性别二元对立冲突的生存焦虑，是在社会发展中产生的新问题。对身体与空间的焦虑是都市女性焦虑的两大源头，通过对“小妞电影”中女性身体与都市空间的文化指认，我们可以准确地认识到当下都市女性所面临的问题，并进而在传统女性研究与实践的基础上结合实际情况为新时期女性生存与发展提供新的建议。     

美国《涉外情报监视法》评介

爱德华·斯诺登将美国国家安全局庞大的监控计划曝光,引发世界多国对美国表示抗议。美国政府声称其监控行为是基于《外国情报监视法》的授权而实施。在美国复杂的监控法律体系中,该法有着独特的生成背景、功能定位以及价值选择,自1978年颁行以来历经多次修正,在国家安全领域依然发挥着举足轻重的作用。     

生命权、身体权、健康权的法定救助义务

生命权、身体权和健康权是自然人享有的最基本的人格权,应受到最大限度的保护。当自然人处于紧急危难状态时,负有法定紧急救助义务的组织或个人应履行紧急救助义务,否则需承担相应的法律责任。鼓励其他负有一般救助义务的主体进行紧急救助,妥善发挥好人条款的积极引导作用,对改善见死不救的不良社会风气,弘扬社会主义核心价值观必将产生积极的影响。     

Reconocimiento del matrimonio religioso contraído en el extranjero (perspectiva mexicana)

The author presents the legal and doctrinal decisions about religious marriage recognition abroad. He finds that the “form” (the qualification) has not been the instrument to recognize the marriage. It is questionable whether that marriage in Mexico is a problem of form.     

外汇按金交易中介行为入罪化研究——以非法经营罪为视角

外汇按金交易违反的规定不属于非法经营罪中"违反国家规定"的范围,且其中的中介行为不属于非法经营行为,而只是一种帮助行为。这种帮助行为依据刑法规定和共犯从属性认定其是犯罪存在阻碍,其本身属性及刑法谦抑性决定了刑法对外汇按金交易中介行为介入没有必要。     

英国欧陆均势政策的原因探析

均势既是国家的一种对外政策和对外行为,又是国际体系的一种运行状态和存在形式。几个世纪以来,英国将均势政策视为一种"金科玉律"或国际政治铁律,有着深刻和复杂的根源。在近现代欧洲国际政治中,面对欧洲大陆一系列统治者屡次掀起的追求霸权的狂潮,作为欧洲大陆外缘海岛国家的英国,基于自身的利益考量,采取均势外交政策,制衡和打击霸权追求者成为英国在此期间经久不息和坚持不懈的政策与行动。     

The 1967 Arab–Israeli war: Soviet policy by other means?

This paper considers two aspects of historiography about the 1967 Arab–Israeli war – American and Soviet foreign policy in the region – to better appreciate the Soviet role in the outbreak of hostilities, as well as how the war concretized the USA–Israel ‘special relationship’ and weakened American–Arab relations. Relying especially on research from the Lyndon Johnson Presidential Library and Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS), this paper argues that Soviet officials had little interest in pursuing measures to prevent war during the prewar crisis because the situation promised to undermine American interests in the region.