国际制度设计视角下的澜湄合作

为什么在湄公河流域已经存在数十个国际合作机制的情况下,还要建立澜湄合作(LMC)这一新型次区域合作机制?既有研究大多强调湄公河流域大国国际制度主导权竞争的宏观背景因素,而较少关注澜湄合作机制的新制度特征及其形成原因,即澜湄新型次区域合作机制究竟"新在何处"。与大湄公河次区域经济合作机制(GMS)等既有国际机制相比,澜湄合作机制具有两大新的制度特征:一是议题范围更加广泛,除了传统的区域经济合作议题外,还增加了区域安全合作以及水资源合作等新议题;二是集中程度更高,与之前合作机制主要由"职能部门引领"以及"借用"亚洲开发银行作为国际秘书处的做法不同,澜湄合作机制采取了"领导人引领、各部门参与"的机制运行模式,并逐步建立独立的国际秘书处。通过运用国际制度理性设计的理论模型,本文考察了在湄公河流域国际合作中上游国家与下游国家之间所面临的日益严峻的分配问题和执行问题,并以此解释了澜湄合作新制度特征的形成原因。     

Estimating Individual Contributions to Complex DNA SNP Mixtures.,

High‐throughput sequencing (HTS) of large panels of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) provides an alternative or complimentary approach to short tandem repeats (STRs) panels for the analysis of complex DNA mixture forensic samples. For STRs, methods to estimate individual contribution concentrations compare capillary electrophoresis peak heights, peak areas, or HTS allele read counts within a mixture. This article introduces three approaches (mean, median, and slope methods) for estimating individual DNA contributions to forensic mixtures for HTS/massively parallel sequencing (MPS) SNP panels. For SNPs, the major:minor allele ratios or counts, unique to each contributor, were compared to estimate contributor proportion within the mixture using the mean, median, and slope intercept for these alleles. The estimates for these three methods were typically within 5% of planned experimental contributions for defined mixtures.     

Lecture Versus Simulation: Testing the Long-Term Effects

Abstract

Active learning techniques are being use with increasing frequency in the classroom and more time is being dedicated to designing and implementing them. However, the literature still suffers from a lack of rigorous empirical methods to test the effects of simulations. Most of the claimed benefits of utilizing simulations, and other active learning techniques, are improved soft skills and higher order thinking like empathy, confidence, public-speaking abilities, and interpersonal skills—all of which don’t lend themselves well to scientific measurement. This gap in the literature is especially troubling considering that time spent using simulations is time not spent using other methods. This article seeks to test the differing impacts of simulations versus traditional lectures over the long-term using a simple 30-minute simulation and rigorous experimental methods. The most important results show that students learn more initially from a lecture, but that students who were exposed to the simulation were better able to retain that information over the long-term.     

Do volatile voters vote less correctly? An analysis of correct voting among vote (intention) switchers in US presidential election campaigns

The literature on electoral volatility and the literature on electoral campaigns hold contradictory views on voters switching vote (intention) during the campaign. In this note, we shed new light on this contradiction, making two contributions. First, we investigate the extent to which stable and volatile voters choose the correct party. Second, we distinguish levels of correct voting and the impact of the act of switching on the correctness of the vote. Our analyses of vote-switching in American elections show that, while volatile voters are less likely to vote correctly, they are more likely to switch from an incorrect to the correct party than vice versa. Furthermore, we show that following the campaign more closely makes voters more likely to switch vote (intention) towards the correct party.     

Small arms and light weapons: the disjunction problem

ABSTRACT

Growing in range and urgency, humanitarian needs now pose increasingly acute questions for national security policy formulation. Whether over forced migration, food scarcity or nefarious electronic penetration, state security preferences face uneasy accommodations with individual needs be it for child survival, basic sustenance or rights to privacy. This paper deliberates a further field of increasingly apparent value contest: that involving the transfer, diversion and lethal use of small arms and light weapons (SALW). After outlining the scale of this phenomenon, existing regulatory mechanisms over SALW transfers are assessed. It is argued that these controls are inadequate, a deficiency that is embedded within a range of inter-linked disjunctions. They are outlined in a model that is evaluated against empirical findings. Where SALW control inadequacy is causally connected to the disjunctive model, it is argued, current levels of SALW-induced casualties are unlikely to abate. The paper concludes by considering feasible options for enhanced management of global SALW proliferation.     

Applying behavioural science to the annual electoral canvass in England: Evidence from a large-scale randomised controlled trial

Local authorities in Great Britain are required to ensure that their electoral registers are as accurate and complete as possible. To this end, Household Enquiry Forms (HEFs) are mailed to all properties annually to collect updated details from residents, and any eligible unregistered residents will subsequently be invited to register to vote. Unfortunately, HEF nonresponse is pervasive and costly. Using insights from behavioural science, we modified letters and envelopes posted to households as part of the annual canvass, and evaluated their effects using a randomised controlled trial across two local authorities in England (N=226,528 properties). We find that modified materials – particularly redesigned envelopes – significantly increase initial response rates and savings. However, we find no effects on voter registration. While certain behavioural interventions can improve the efficiency of the annual canvass, other approaches or interventions may be needed to increase voter registration rates and update voter information.     

公共服务供给机制转型中的公益性岗位研究

我国自2002年起开始施行公益性岗位的政策,这一政策对拓宽就业渠道、缓解失业压力起到了一定的作用。但目前依靠政府进一步开发和购买公益性岗位的难度很大。本文对国内外公共服务供给机制转型进行了比较分析,在此基础上提出以下建议:我国应进一步完善公共服务的供给机制,以社区为平台,通过推动购买服务的方式,调动社会组织服务社区和吸收就业的功能,以推动公益性岗位的增加。     

The Management of Democratic Elections in Africa (MDEA) programme at the university of South Africa: Is this the right path towards African solutions?

There have been a number of initiatives in Africa to rid the Continent of political instability, conflict, poverty and disease. Many have argued that aid from the West has helped Africa in many ways—from stopping wars, to food relief and rescuing the African environment. Yet others have slated Western involvement which they contend, frequently leaves Africans dependant rather than capable of solving their own problems. In line with the pan-Africanist and the African Union (AU) ideals, there is now a realisation by Africans that there is a need to find African solutions to African challenges and problems. This review article explores the University of South Africa’s (Unisa’s) Management of Democratic Elections in Africa (MDEA) programme, by looking at its objectives and the reason why it must be labelled a Programme, its mandate, which is in line with the brief of the AU and pan-Africanist ideals. The article focuses on how Unisa’s programme responds to the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG); and how it has attempted to facilitate knowledge for peace in Africa, through empowering electoral officials from various African states. The article concludes by looking at the successes and limitations of the Programme over a five-year period, from its inception in 2011.     

论我国少数民族社会生产力的跨越式发展

生产力是少数民族社会发展的最终决定力量;科学技术是第一生产力,是推动少数民族社会全面进步的伟大杠杆。我国少数民族社会必须通过科技建设与技术创新、民族教育的建设与创新、管理创新、民族文化的创新和发展,实现生产力的跨越式发展,促进少数民族经济社会的全面发展。     

Metrological framework for selecting morphological characters to identify species and estimate developmental maturity of forensically significant insect specimens

Accurate age estimates of immature necrophagous insects associated with a human or animal body can provide evidence of how long the body has been dead. These estimates are based on species-specific details of the insects’ aging processes, and therefore require accurate species identification and developmental stage estimation. Many professionals who produce or use identified organisms as forensic evidence have little training in taxonomy or metrology, and appreciate the availability of formalized principles and standards for biological identification. Taxonomic identifications are usually most readily and economically made using categorical and qualitative morphological characters, but it may be necessary to use less convenient and potentially more ambiguous characters that are continuous and quantitative if two candidate species are closely related, or if identifying developmental stages within a species. Characters should be selected by criteria such as taxonomic specificity and metrological repeatability and relative error. We propose such a hierarchical framework, critique various measurements of immature insects, and suggest some standard approaches to determine the reliability of organismal identifications and measurements in estimating postmortem intervals. Relevant criteria for good characters include high repeatability (including low scope for ambiguity or parallax effects), pronounced discreteness, and small relative error in measurements. These same principles apply to individuation of unique objects in general.

Key points

• Metrological rigour can increase in forensic entomology by selecting measurements based on their metrological qualities.
• Selection of high-quality features for morphological identification of organisms should consider these criteria: (1) pronounced discreteness of features (minimising group overlap or maximizing interval); (2) high repeatability of assessment (such as symmetrical width rather than asymmetrical length); (3) small relative error in measurement (selecting the physically largest continuous rigid feature for measurement).
• These metrological principles also apply to individuation of unique objects in general.