日本货物进出口贸易协调性的动态分析及启示

日本货物出口与进口之间是否存在协同均衡增长的动态发展关系,是否存在维持进出口内在均衡的机制,文章基于2008年—2012年的月度数据进行了实证分析。协整检验结果表明,日本货物出口与进口存在长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型看,短期内日本货物出口与进口之间存在动态调整机制。根据格兰杰因果关系检验,日本货物出口与日本货物进口存在单向和双向因果关系。脉冲响应函数分析表明,日本货物出口的某一冲击会给日本货物进口增长带来同向冲击。实证结果表明在垂直专业化分工背景下,尽管自动调节机制可以使日本货物进出口向长期均衡调整,但是由于全球需求放缓、向海外转移生产基地、日元持续升值和东日本大地震等不确定因素的综合影响,日本沦为经常项目逆差国的可能性正在加大。     

山东省出口贸易与人均GDP增长的实证分析

根据山东省1984-2007年的统计数据,运用协整方法,对出口与经济增长的实证分析结果表明,山东省出口与人均GDP均为一阶单整序列;运用Engle-Granger两步法建立的协整回归方程和误差修正模型表明,出口对人均GDP增长具有极强的拉动作用,二者之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系。     

戒毒心理测量误差分析

毒品成瘾社会危害极大,已成为国际社会关注的焦点之一。随着禁戒毒工作的深入开展,各戒毒机构非常重视对吸毒人员进行心理矫正,普遍采用心理测量对吸毒人员心理行为进行评价,并为科学教育管理吸毒人员的实践活动提供科学、可靠的理论依据和策略。但在实际工作中,由于诸多因素的影响,使这一工作存在较大的误差。     

民法动机错误论考——从类型论到要件论之嬗变

严格区分动机错误与表示错误、原则上将动机排斥于法律评价之外,唯有表示于外的动机始受保护的传统的“类型论”观点日益露出其破绽,将动机错误与表示错误一元化并构造统一法律要件的“要件论”思想渐次成为今日“错误论”之主流,而统一的“错误要件”如何最大限度地保持合理性,仍在继续的探索与求证之中。     

提高高职学生英语应用文写作能力的探讨

文章运用错误分析的理论、方法和步骤,对高职生英语书面表达中的错误及错误的原因进行了调查与分析,提出了提高高职生英语写作能力的途径和方式.     

美国医疗差错的概念、定义与特征本

医疗差错已经是一个全世界的问题。越是现代化的国家 ,这一问题就显得越为严重 ,在美国因医疗差错导致患者死亡已占死因的第 8位。在我国 ,一直习惯使用医疗事故的概念 ,而医疗事故又在《刑法》里有明确的罪责。随着中国经济日益与世界接轨 ,法律制度中的一些概念性问题也在逐步朝向国际统一方向发展。因此 ,对于医疗差错的明确统一定义 ,就显得十分很重要。本文主要介绍美国法律方面的相关规定。一、医疗差错是当今的世界性问题1999年 ,美国医学研究所 (ＩＯＭ ,ｔｈｅＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＭｅｄｉｃｉｎｅ )估计 ,每年有 980 0 0人死于…     

Using network sampling in crime victimization surveys

Since crime victimizations are statistically rare events, surveys to estimate rates of victimization are difficult and expensive. In this paper, we examine the advantages of network sampling over traditional methods for conducting crime victimization surveys. Network sampling links population households in specified ways, for reporting purposes, in order to increase the probabilities of locating households with particular characteristics. We conducted a reverse record check field experiment to test whether a telephone survey using network sampling is feasible to collect crime victimization data. Three types of crimes-burglary, robbery, and assault-were tested along with two types of networks-relatives and co-workers/close friends. This paper examines the extent to which victims report their victimization experiences in a general crime and victimization interview and the extent to which a randomly selected relative or close friend will report the same victimization incident in an identical interview. A number of multiplicity counting rules are compared in terms of reporting errors and a mean square error analysis.     

司法鉴定意见纠错机制及制度探讨——以面向社会服务的鉴定机构和鉴定人为视野

司法鉴定意见是鉴定人进行科技实践的产物,因而出现错误鉴定意见是不可能完全避免的。在法定的重新鉴定之外,由原司法鉴定人在程序规定的范围内通过＂复核鉴定＂自我纠正司法鉴定意见的错误不失为一种有效的对策。基于此,以面向社会服务的司法鉴定机构和鉴定人为研究的视野,以复核鉴定为基本形式,探讨司法鉴定意见纠错的机制并创设相应的制度,将有利于诉讼和司法鉴定。     

Confidence in an election authority and satisfaction with democracy: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment of a failed election in Sweden

Contemporary research on electoral integrity has focused on the functioning, evaluation, and legitimacy of electoral processes in emerging democracies. By contrast, this study investigates whether a failed election in a well-established democracy can affect individuals' evaluations of the electoral management body, the Election Authority, and whether those evaluations affect satisfaction with democracy. Using the case of a Swedish regional election in 2010 that had to be rerun due to procedural mistakes in the vote handling, we found that, in the short term, individuals’ confidence in the Election Authority was reduced after it was announced that the election had to be rerun because of the mistakes. Subsequently, this decreased confidence was strongly associated with less satisfaction with democracy at the regional and national level. As good news for the authority, after a successful rerun election, confidence rebounded to the levels prior to the failed election.