‘An error is feedback’: the experience of communication error management in crisis negotiations

A range of studies have examined what should be said and done in crisis negotiations. Yet, no study to date has considered what happens when an error is made, how to respond to an error, and what the consequences of errors and responses might be on the negotiation process itself. To develop our understanding of errors, we conducted 11 semi-structured interviews with police crisis negotiators in the Netherlands. Negotiators reported making errors of three types: factual, judgment, or contextual. They also reported making use of four types of response strategy: accept, apologize, attribute, and contradict. Critically, the negotiators did not perceive errors as solely detrimental, but as an opportunity for feedback. They advocated for an error management approach, which focused on what could be learned from another person’s errors when looking back at them. Suggestions for improvement of the communication error management experience in crisis negotiations are discussed.     

A test of the stability of punishment hypothesis: The Dutch case

This paper tests the hypothesis of the stability of punishment as developed by Blumstein and his associates against Dutch prison data. After summarizing the existing empirical evidence, Dutch prison data are presented pertaining to the average daily population in penal institutions, on the one hand, and the number of admissions in these institutions, on the other hand. In three ways it is tested whether these data do support the hypothesis: regression analysis, Box-Jenkins analysis, and the analysis of a few dynamic models as presented by Berket al. (1981). The paper ends with discussing Blumstein's hypothesis and considers the way research into the extent of the prison population should be continued.     

Winning at the polls and in the polls: the incumbency advantage in surveys of U.S. house voters

The success of House incumbents at the polls is well known and has been studied extensively. This paper focuses on the incumbents' success in the polls: the support bestowed upon incumbents by survey respondents is substantially higher than that received from the voters. The incumbency advantage at the polls, estimated at about 10% in the most recent elections, is almost doubled when measured in the polls. The data, drawn from the 1982–1996 National Election Studies, show that respondents do not reward all winners; candidates elected to open seats have not benefitted from the kind of bounce consistently enjoyed by winning incumbents. In addition, the pattern of respondents' misreports appears to be inconsistent with earlier explanations based on instrument effects. Respondent bias should be accounted for in order to reach correct estimates of the incumbency advantage in individual-level data.     

A validation study for duct tape end matches

Fracture matches are considered to be the strongest association achievable in forensic examinations of glass, metal, wood, plastic, paint, tape, and other trace evidence. Despite being fairly routine examinations, few publications exist to support their admissibility in court. This study was designed, using duct tape as the fractured medium, to determine the validity and error rate associated with conducting end match (fracture match) examinations on this material. Five test designs, which varied either the source roll of tape or manner of separation (torn or cut) from the roll, were administered to four analysts with instructions to examine the assigned test sets for end matches. If an end match was not identified by the initial analyst, the entire test set was independently evaluated by the remaining three analysts. Results indicated that while tape grade did not hinder end match identification, the manner of separation could affect results.     

Revisiting Respondent “Fatigue Bias” in the National Crime Victimization Survey

For more than three decades the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)—and its predecessor the National Crime Survey (NCS)—have been used to calculate estimates of nonfatal crime in the United States. Though the survey has contributed much to our understanding of criminal victimization, some aspects of the survey’s methodology continue to be analyzed (e.g., repeat victimizations, proxy interviews, and bounding). Surprisingly, one important aspect of NCVS methodology has escaped this scrutiny: respondent fatigue. A potential source of nonsampling error, fatigue bias is thought to manifest as respondents become “test wise” after repeated exposure to NCVS survey instruments. Using a special longitudinal NCVS data file, we revisit the presence and influence of respondent fatigue in the NCVS. Specifically, we test the theory that respondents exposed to longer interviews during their first interview are more likely to refuse to participate in the survey 6 months later. Contrary to expectations based on the literature, results show that prior reporting of victimization and exposure to a longer interview is not a significant predictor of a noninterview during the following time-in-sample once relevant individual characteristics are accounted for. Findings do demonstrate significant effects of survey mode and several respondent characteristics on subsequent survey non-participation.     

Medium‐Chain Acyl‐CoA Dehydrogenase Deficiency in Adulthood: A Potential Diagnosis in a Patient with Mental Status Changes Suspected of Drug Toxicity

Medium‐chain acyl‐CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency is a rare but important component of the differential diagnosis for adults with a history of premortem mental status changes and the postmortem finding of hepatic steatosis. This case report describes a 30‐year‐old white man who, following a period of nausea and vomiting, was admitted to the hospital with sudden mental status deterioration followed rapidly by clinical deterioration and death. Treating physicians in this case suspected acute illicit drug toxicity with synthetic cathinones based on social history. Clinicians and medical examiners should be aware that the presentation, signs, and symptoms described may indicate an underlying inborn error of metabolism such as MCAD deficiency and take action accordingly.     

The Use of Tooth Crown Measurements in the Assessment of Ancestry

As the hardest tissue in the body, teeth have the potential to offer a wealth of biological information to the forensic anthropologist, which can include the assessment of ancestry. Using a large data set of dental measurements, the efficacy of mesiodistal and buccolingual tooth dimensions to discriminate between broad, geographically based groups is explored. A general pattern is identified: African populations have the largest teeth, Asians possess teeth of intermediate size, and Europeans have the smallest teeth. In a discriminant function analysis using crown measurements of all teeth (mandibular and maxillary and excluding the third molar), individuals were correctly classified in 71.3% of cases. When the sex of the individual is known, classification is improved up to 88.1% in females and 71.9% of males (cross‐validated). Based on these results, we argue that dental metrics can be regularly employed as part of the development of the biological profile.     

Information Transmission Among World Major Gold Futures Markets： Evidence From High Frequency Synchronous Trading Data

This study examines the international information transmission among three major gold futures markets namely New York Mercantile Exchange in division of Commodity Exchange （COMEX）, Multi Commodity Exchange （MCX）, and Tokyo Commodity Exchange （TOCOM）. The main concept of this research is no matter where gold futures traded, they share the same underlying asset. Two well-documented approaches, which are vector error correction model and information share, are utilized to measure the process of price discovery under this trivariate system. The uniqueness of this study is that it employs synchronous intraday time series which can mitigate the stale price problem from daily observations. The evidences indicate that the three gold futures prices are cointegrated and driven by the same fundamental factors. New arrival information disseminates efficiently among the three markets and the pricing information transmission among exchanges is very rapid. However, the lead-lag relationship among markets still exists with the dominance of COMEX gold futures as the centre of price discovery The US gold futures market is the most efficient in processing information. Its role on price discovery and information can be attributed to COMEX＇s massive trading volume.     

我国行政复议制度功能定位之重新解读

行政复议制度实施的十余年里,暴露出来的问题层出不穷,制度实施的效果与民众所期待的还有相当大的距离。其中的根本原因在于对行政复议制度的功能定位模糊不清,因此,在重新定位行政复议制度功能的基础上,提出对现行行政复议制度的几点新认识。