Unemployment,imprisonment, and the stability of punishment hypothesis: Some results using cointegration and error correction models

A version of the stability of punishment hypothesis is used to illustrate the concept of cointegration and its relationship to error correction models. The hypothesis is then tested and rejected using data from England and Wales. Finally, a dynamic time-series model relating imprisonment to convictions, crime, and Unemployment is developed and tested.The empirical results in this work are based upon those originally prepared for a paper to be given by the author and Steve Box at the meeting of the American Society of Criminology held in Montreal in November 1987. Steve Box died in September 1987 before it could be completed.The paper is dedicated to his memory and it is hoped that he would have approved its content, if not, perhaps, the dryness of its form.     

浅谈文稿审校中的纠谬体验

对拟刊出文稿进行严格细密的审校，是保证文稿文字水平和质量的重要环节。一般字词的错误和关键词的错用、标点符号使用的疏失，词义模糊、词义扭曲、语句的任意缩略与简称、科学与文史背景知识的差错等，是不纠不可的文字瑕疵及谬误。     

刑事侦查失误的心理机制分析

刑事侦查中的失误不仅仅损害了公安机关的声誉,更为严重的是它造成了大量的刑事悬案,为社会治安留下巨大隐患。就其心理机制而言,知觉与记忆局限、直觉错误、认知偏差及群体思维等因素是导致侦查失误的根本心理原因。刑事侦查人员,特别是领导者必须在刑事侦查过程中清醒地认识到造成刑事侦查失误的各种可能原因,并有意识地加以避免,以最大限度地减少侦查失误,提高侦查效率与破案率。     

Current Next Generation Sequencing technology may not meet forensic standards

In a Nature paper of 2010, the concern was raised that intra-individual mtDNA variation may be more pronounced than previously believed, in that heteroplasmies are common and vary markedly from tissue to tissue. This claim taken at face value would have considerable impact on forensic casework. It turns out however that the employed technology detected the germ-line variation relative to the reference sequence only incompletely: on average at least five mutations were missed per sample, as an in silico reassessment of the data reveals. Before one can really set out to access to entire mtDNA genome data with relative ease for forensic purposes, one needs careful calibration studies under strict forensic conditions—or might have to wait for another generation.     

A validation study for vinyl electrical tape end matches

Fracture matches are considered the strongest conclusion in the forensic examination of rigid materials, such as glass, metal, and paint. However, publications that support the fracture matching of polymeric films, such as tape backings, are limited. This study was designed to determine the validity and error rate associated with conducting end-match (fracture match) examinations on vinyl electrical tape. Test designs varied the source roll of tape, test preparer, or mode of separation from the roll. Results indicated that each affected the resulting severed tape ends. The analysts examining the end matches also had an effect on the results. Eight end matches in the study were not identified by the initial analysts and were considered inconclusive. One end match was misidentified, resulting in one false positive and an error rate of 0.049%. These results support a comprehensive physical and chemical tape comparison regardless of indications of an end match.     

刑事证人出庭作证的误区及其出路

目前,在刑事诉讼中,证人出庭作证情况不容乐观,证人出庭作证的比例非常小,这种现象显然不利于法庭审理。为了解决证人出庭率偏低的问题,理论界和实务界一直有人提出应当提高证人出庭率。这种做法在一定程度上有其合理性。但是一味地提高证人出庭率反而是一种理论上的误区。由于证人证言未必可靠,中国多年来司法传统,质证效果难以保证等原因,片面强调证人出庭率对于查明案件事实,对公正审理刑事案件未必能够起到促进作用。关于证人出庭作证的立法也存在误区,证人资格规定过宽,证人作证义务豁免,书面证言与口头证言之间存在矛盾等原因也导致了我国目前证人出庭作证情况的乱象。走出这些误区需要从完善证据立法等多个方面入手。     

心理测试技术的误差分析

心理测试技术测试误差主要来自被测对象、题目编制、测试实施过程等三个相对独立的方面,且随机误差和系统误差的权重也不同。对被测对象的个别化、动态化处理,科学的编题,适当的测前访谈,动态、整体、多因素参考的评图等能有效提高测试准确性。     

Single primer extension (SPEX) amplification to accurately genotype highly damaged DNA templates

High levels of non-authentic sequence data can be generated by traditional PCR-based methodologies when DNA is damaged, template numbers are small and/or the target amplification size too large. We therefore present an alternate methodology based on single primer extension (SPEX) amplification; that places no pre-defined size constraints on amplification and interacts with only one of the DNA strands at the target locus.     

Dueling experts and imperfect verification

In the Dueling Experts Game, adversarial experts strategically produce “good” or “bad” evidence to support their partisan testimony. Good evidence is probative while bad evidence has no evidentiary value. The new feature of this Game is that Judge sometimes erroneously identifies good evidence as bad evidence and vice versa. Along the Game’s equilibrium path, each partisan expert produces only good evidence if it supports his side. When favorable good evidence is unavailable, an expert produces bad evidence to support his testimony. Hence, dueling experts always contradict one another. Despite their conflicting testimony, one of the experts invariably produces the available good evidence for Judge. Therefore, Judge always receives the available good evidence. A central result is that the quality of experts, including their ability to persuade judges using available good evidence, and the quality of judges – their ability to distinguish good from bad evidence – determine the accuracy of verdicts. Remarkably, the likelihood that experts are endowed with good evidence does not matter provided that this likelihood is not identically zero or one.     

对我国行业协会性质错位的思考

行业协会作为民间经济组织,在维护企业共同利益,促进企业和行业发展,监管企业生产经营活动,协调国家与企业、行业的关系等方面发挥了巨大的作用。但行业协会在我国由于过多地受到政府行政干预甚至左右,因此发生了性质错位。通过分析其性质本原,可以纠正目前我国行业协会发展中的性质错位现象,以促进行业协会的正常发展。