The impact of the wilson administration on economic crime rates

Previous research, based upon the interrupted time-series analysis of monthly data, has demonstrated that changes in the organizational structure of police departments produce short-term changes in the level of reported crime. The present study extends this literature by examining the independent effects of a change in hierarchical control (i.e., the appointment of O. W. Wilson as the new chief of the Chicago Police Department) and changes, over time, in the ecological structure of Chicago on reported rates of economic crime. The multivariate analyses indicate that the failure to take into account organizational change leads to model specification error. We conclude that longitudinal, within-jurisdictional research, based on the analysis of UCR data, must take into account changes in police bureaucracies that can affect the production of official counts of crime.     

人体损伤鉴定标准操作一致性研究

目的研究人体损伤鉴定标准在操作方面的一致性问题,找出操作方面可能产生鉴定失真的因素。方法选择本所1998年连续的符合设定条件的102个案件,请来自不同鉴定机构的鉴定人员9人对这些案件进行评定,并对评定资料进行统计学处理,采用spss10.0软件来分析有关项目和数据。结果研究提示同一鉴定机构不同鉴定人之间鉴定分歧较小,不同鉴定机构之间的鉴定人鉴定分歧较大;鉴定工作经验和专业培训教育是减少鉴定失真的重要因素。结论人体损伤鉴定标准具有很强的专业性,准确操作与统一解释和培训以及评定人员的经验有关。     

走私犯罪若干疑难问题之探析——兼评《关于办理走私刑事案件适用法律有关问题的意见》

走私犯罪的主观故意只能是直接故意,司法机关对走私人的主观心理状态认定存疑时应允许适度的司法推定,不宜将走私犯罪中的"概括故意"与"认识对象错误"相混淆。海关工作人员受贿又放私构成牵连犯,按从一重罪从重处断。对单位与个人犯走私普通货物物品罪,不能因为主体不同而规定不同的起刑点。在一次走私行为中既走私普通货物物品又有其它特定物品的,属于并发的数罪,应实行数罪并罚。武装掩护走私应为一个独立罪名。     

浅谈过失相抵制度在审判实践中的应用

过失相抵是当受害人对于损害的发生或扩大具有过错时 ,依法减轻或免除赔偿义务人的损害赔偿责任的制度。其构成要件有三 :受害人具有过错 ;受害人的过错行为必须是损害发生或扩大的原因 ;受害人行为是不当行为。审判实践中 ,适用过失相抵制度时应注意积极、慎重适用该制度 ,注意区分一般过失与重大过失 ,注重过失相低的方法。互殴案件不能适用过失相抵。     

Accuracy of comparison decisions by forensic firearms examiners

This black box study assessed the performance of forensic firearms examiners in the United States. It involved three different types of firearms and 173 volunteers who performed a total of 8640 comparisons of both bullets and cartridge cases. The overall false-positive error rate was estimated as 0.656% and 0.933% for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively, while the rate of false negatives was estimated as 2.87% and 1.87% for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively. The majority of errors were made by a limited number of examiners. Because chi-square tests of independence strongly suggest that error probabilities are not the same for each examiner, these are maximum-likelihood estimates based on the beta-binomial probability model and do not depend on an assumption of equal examiner-specific error rates. Corresponding 95% confidence intervals are (0.305%, 1.42%) and (0.548%, 1.57%) for false positives for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively, and (1.89%, 4.26%) and (1.16%, 2.99%) for false negatives for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively. The results of this study are consistent with prior studies, despite its comprehensive design and challenging specimens.     

案外人异议之诉

新民事诉讼法第204条虽然设置了案外人异议之诉,但规定过于简单,在该诉的构造和适用要件方面尚有诸多内容需要通过司法解释和司法判例加以充实和完善。案外人异议之诉是执行救济的一种方法和手段,其目的在于阻止或撤销执行机构对执行标的的执行,在性质上属于特殊的命令诉讼。案外人异议之诉适用于所有的对财产的强制执行。     

Error Rates,Likelihood Ratios,and Jury Evaluation of Forensic Evidence

Forensic examiners regularly testify in criminal cases, informing the jurors whether crime scene evidence likely came from a source. In this study, we examine the impact of providing jurors with testimony further qualified by error rates and likelihood ratios, for expert testimony concerning two forensic disciplines: commonly used fingerprint comparison evidence and a novel technique involving voice comparison. Our method involved surveying mock jurors in Amazon Mechanical Turk (N = 897 laypeople) using written testimony and judicial instructions. Participants were more skeptical of voice analysis and generated fewer “guilty” decisions than for fingerprint analysis (B = 2.00, OR = 7.06, p = <0.000). We found that error rate information most strongly decreased “guilty” votes relative to no qualifying information for participants who heard fingerprint evidence (but not those that heard voice analysis evidence; B = −1.16, OR = 0.32, p = 0.007). We also found that error rates and conclusion types led to a greater decrease on “guilty” votes for fingerprint evidence than voice evidence (B = 1.44, OR = 4.23, p = 0.021). We conclude that these results suggest jurors adjust the weight placed on forensic evidence depending on their prior views about its reliability. Future research should develop testimony and judicial instructions that can better inform jurors of the strengths and limitations of forensic evidence.