Using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) to Test Estimates of Arrestee and Offender Characteristics

National-Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) information for 1993 iscompared with two other sets of homicide data to assess the acuracy ofprocedures for estimating age-, sex-, and race-specific arrest counts fromtraditional Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data. The simultaneous age, race, andsex characteristics of offenders provided in the NIBRS arrest and offender segmentsare compared with estimates of the same characteristics derived from summaryUCR arrest data. The results suggest that using UCR marginal totals toestimate arrest counts by race and sex produces reasonably accurateestimates of the number of black and nonblack male arrests for murder andother offenses. Estimates of arrests of females by race and sex are lessaccurate, probably because of the relatively small number of arrests ofwomen and girls. Estimating male arrest counts for specific age groups alsoproduces reasonably accurate estimates. The results suggest that previousresearch employing such estimates may have been misleading in the estimatesof female arrests by race but accurate in the estimates of male arrests byrace. Although the use of summary UCR-based estimates in futurecross-sectional research will become increasingly unnecessary as the NIBRSreplaces the current UCR program, time series research designs on arrest andcrime trends will continue to require estimates.     

Domestic Violence and Maternal Reports of Young Children’s Functioning

Maternal reports of 60 preschool-aged children were used to investigate trauma responses to living in households where domestic violence was present. Post-trauma symptoms were measured using developmentally modified criteria based on the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). Mothers’ level of anxiety, depression, somatization, and self-reported parenting stress were also assessed. Results suggested that, in addition to clinical levels of Internalizing, Externalizing and Total Problem scores on the CBCL, young children displayed a range of post-trauma symptoms. Mothers reported a high level of violence, and a significant relationship was found between self-reported levels of distress and parenting stress. Parenting stress was found to be the strongest predictor of children’s scores on the CBCL. Although domestic violence alone was not significantly correlated to child outcomes, results indicated that maternal distress adversely impacted on the parent-child relationship. The importance of the child’s relationship with the primary caregiver was discussed. Implications regarding further research, developmentally appropriate diagnostic criteria, and early interventions with the primary caregiver are highlighted.     

Revisiting the Effects of Case Reports in the News

Synthesizing several theories about the likely impact of case reports in the news, we propose that the impact of featuring identified victims in a news story is contingent on the degree of similarity between the audience member and the identified victims. We execute a population-based survey experiment involving immigration policy to examine our theory. Our results suggest that featuring specific, identified victims in a news story will promote more supportive policy opinions than otherwise identical stories about unidentified victims, but only when the victim is highly similar to the audience member. Conversely, case reports featuring identified people who are dissimilar to the audience member will decrease the extent to which the story encourages victim-supportive policy attitudes. Overall, our experimental findings shed light on the conditions under which the inclusion of case reports increases versus decreases the policy relevance of news stories. Our findings also help explain previous inconsistencies in findings about the impact of case reports. Additional analyses allow us to speculate as to the reasons for the differential direction of effects.     

COMPARING DELINQUENCY CAREERS IN COURT RECORDS AND SELF‐REPORTS*

Most knowledge about delinquency careers is derived from official records. The main aim of this paper is to compare conclusions about delinquency careers derived from court referrals with conclusions derived from self‐reports. Data are analyzed from the Seattle Social Development Project, which is a prospective longitudinal survey of 808 youths. Annual court and self‐report data were available from age 11 to age 17 for eight offenses. The prevalence of offending increased with age, in both court referrals and self‐reports. There was a sharp increase in the prevalence of court referrals between ages 12 and 13, probably because of the reluctance of the juvenile justice system to deal with very young offenders. The individual offending frequency increased with age in self‐reports, but it stayed constant in court referrals, probably because of limitations on the annual number of referrals per offender. There was significant continuity in offending in both court referrals and self‐reports, but continuity was greater in court referrals. The concentration of offending (and the importance of chronic offenders) was greater in self‐reports. An early age of onset predicted a large number of offenses in both self‐reports and court referrals. However, an early onset predicted a high rate of offending in court referrals but not in self‐reports, possibly because very young offenders who were referred to court were an extreme group. About 37% of offenders and 3% of offenses led to a court referral. The more frequent offenders were less likely to be referred to court after each offense, but most of them were referred to court sooner or later. There was a sharp increase between ages 12 and 13 in the probability of an offender and an offense leading to a court referral. It is concluded that criminal career research based on self‐reports sometimes yields different conclusions compared with research based on official records.     

CCTV伊拉克战争报道刍评

本文及时总结了中央电视台此次伊拉克战争报道所呈现出的及时性、多样性、客观性等特点及不足之处,并在此基础上进行了理性思考,就媒体应付突发性事件提出了一些初步建议。     

陕甘宁边区判例汇编考略

判例汇编,是指将审判实践中形成的典型案例进行系统地整理和编纂,用以规范和指导司法审判的活动。陕甘宁边区时期,边区政府与边区高等法院针对边区实际,将司法机关在审判实践中形成的典型判例进行汇编。判例汇编的倡导者是边区政府,而具体实施者是边区高等法院。边区制定法不完善、司法队伍建设不能满足司法审判需要、人民群众文化素质低、观念落后等社会原因促使了边区判例汇编的形成。边区判例汇编具有分类汇编与共性概括汇编相结合、正反判例相结合等特点。边区判例汇编作为典型案例的集合,具有总结边区司法审判经验、提升边区司法审判人员素质、补充边区制定法不足、减少诉讼及化解社会矛盾等重要历史价值。边区判例汇编虽然有形成仓促、汇编形式略显粗糙等缺点,但这种方式却有力地促进了边区的法制建设。     

改革丌放以来党的发展观的认识深化及其启示——基于改革开放以来七次党代会报告的视角

从党的十二大提出走中国特色社会主义道路，到党的十八大对科学发展观给予新评价、新定位。这七次党代会报告深刻反映了我们党的发展观的不断深化。剖析这七次党代会报告对发展内涵认识的深化过程，对于我们高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜，坚定“三个自信”，具有十分重要的启示意义。     

An experimental comparison of question forms used to reduce vote overreporting

Via telephone, a national probability sample of 1464 respondents randomly received one of three question versions of a voter turnout question in the months of December, January, and February, following the November 1998 Congressional elections in the United States. The long version form contained memory cueing techniques and face-saving response options, the short form, modeled after the 2000 American National Election Studies (ANES) question, included only the face-saving response options, and the standard form, modeled after ANES questions used before 2000, included neither. The long form led to significantly lower reported turnout in comparison to both the short and standard forms, indicating that the long form successfully reduced vote overreporting in comparison to the other question versions.