公司信用风险的KMV模型述评

我国金融市场由于缺乏足够的信用数据,直接利用股票市场数据来进行信用风险管理的KMV模型有着广泛的应用前景。KMV模型利用股价的波动来评估股权公开交易公司的信用风险,它最主要的分析工具是所谓的预期违约率EDF。     

Negotiation and Conflict Resolution Education in the Age of the MOOC

Even as online learning is increasingly embraced by institutions of higher education, the past decade has seen the arrival of yet another new educational vehicle: massive online open courses (MOOCs). These courses are designed to disseminate knowledge at an unprecedented scale — even as they engender concerns about quality, learning efficacy, and the future of higher education. In this article, I discuss the MOOC phenomenon and describe a MOOC on negotiation that I developed and taught, exploring the advantages that such a course offers for negotiation and conflict resolution education in particular.     

A study of dispersion of gunshot residue from a frequently used Serbian ammunition cal. 7.65 mm to support selected aspects of casework in North Macedonia

The subject of this research was the inorganic gunshot residue component collected from shooting patterns obtained on woven cotton cloth using a Pietro Beretta model 70 pistol, cal. 7.65 mm and Serbian ammunition for the following muzzle-to-target distances: 25, 50, 75, 100 and 125 cm. For each distance, three rounds of shooting were performed. Particles were lifted within a 10 cm radius of the projectile entrance and automatically analyzed using a scanning electron microscope coupled with an energy dispersion X-ray spectrometry. The obtained data on the populations of particles were analyzed taking into account their numbers, chemical classes and sizes. The results showed an apparent maximum incidence within all particles containing barium at about 50 cm distance. Also, lead particles revealed a distinct behaviour, being dominant at a 25 cm distance, falling below the other chemical classes, and finally becoming dominant again at 125 cm. The analysis of the frequency of occurrence of particles sorted according to their sizes confirmed that the small particle population is the largest, and their distribution in function of the equivalent circle diameter is exponential-like. The obtained results provided knowledge on the distribution of particles in the vicinity of the tested firearm and ammunition cal. 7.65 mm which generally corroborates with similarly studied GSR distributions obtained for the use of pistols cal. 9 mm. This information, together with the examinations of gunshot damages and other types of residues such as soot or unburned propellant grains may support qualitative inferences on shooting distance estimation, especially in cases, when the firearm and cartridges are not available to perform test shooting. In such cases even roughly estimated shooting distance can be helpful, e.g. for confirming or excluding the possibility of self-inflicted injuries or suicide and infer on the mutual position of the shooting stage actors. An example of casework that illustrates intermediate shooting distance estimation is presented.     

Forensic Comparison of Soil Samples Using Nondestructive Elemental Analysis

Soil can play an important role in forensic cases in linking suspects or objects to a crime scene by comparing samples from the crime scene with samples derived from items. This study uses an adapted ED‐XRF analysis (sieving instead of grinding to prevent destruction of microfossils) to produce elemental composition data of 20 elements. Different data processing techniques and statistical distances were evaluated using data from 50 samples and the log‐LR cost (C_llr). The best performing combination, Canberra distance, relative data, and square root values, is used to construct a discriminative model. Examples of the spatial resolution of the method in crime scenes are shown for three locations, and sampling strategy is discussed. Twelve test cases were analyzed, and results showed that the method is applicable. The study shows how the combination of an analysis technique, a database, and a discriminative model can be used to compare multiple soil samples quickly.     

Estimating the Skull‐to‐Camera Distance from Facial Photographs for Craniofacial Superimposition

The overlay of a skull and a face image for identification purposes requires similar subject‐to‐camera distances (SCD) to be used at both photographic sessions so that differences in perspective do not compromise the anatomical comparisons. As the facial photograph is the reference standard, it is crucial to determine its SCD first and apply this value to photography of the skull. So far, such a method for estimating the SCD has been elusive (some say impossible), compromising the technical validity of the superimposition procedure. This paper tests the feasibility of using the palpebral fissure length and a well‐established photographic algorithm to accurately estimate the SCD from the facial photograph. Recordings at known SCD across a 1–10 m range (repeated under two test conditions) demonstrate that the newly formulated method works: a mean SCD estimation error of 7% that translates into <1% perspective distortion error between estimated and actual conditions.     

Comparison of Different Swabs for Sampling Inorganic Gunshot Residue from Gunshot Wounds: Applicability and Reliability for the Determination of Firing Distance

This study concentrates on samples of bare pork skin, with and without bristles, and dried bovine ribs shot with a semi‐automatic pistol to find the best methodology and sampling surface in the search for inorganic gunshot residues (IGSR). Four quadrants of known surface areas were sampled at different distances from the bullet's hole with different swabs: tapes in graphite, Leukosilk® white tape, 3M® transparent tape, and a cotton swab to assess the technique able to collect the highest amounts of IGSR with the lowest contribution of the blank. The cotton swab wet in 10% HNO₃ gave the best results. The highest amounts of IGSR, measured by ICP‐OES and MS, were detected on a surface of 3‐cm radius from the bullet's edge. The amount of metals collected decreased with the firing distance between 20 and 60 cm. The procedure was efficient for sampling different tissues like skin and bones.     

The world at their fingertips? The mental wellbeing of online distance-based law students

In recent years there has been an increased interest in student mental wellbeing within higher education. In terms of legal education, much of this has been focused upon the United States (US) and Australia, with a lack of United Kingdom (UK)-based empirical data available. Although there is now extensive provision of online distance learning options available to UK (and other) law students, there is a notable lack of research into the possible challenges which are specific to this form of tertiary offering. This paper seeks to contribute to the development of research in this area by reporting upon, and analysing, preliminary data gathered from an empirical study of the mental wellbeing of online distance learning law students.     

The future of online social work education and Title IV-E child welfare stipends

ABSTRACT

In this concept paper, the authors explore online learning in social work and how IV-E education has been and will continue to be impacted. An empirical estimate of the national prevalence of online IV-E social work degree options is presented. Using Colorado as a case example, the authors share some of the opportunities and challenges presented by online education. Universities in Colorado have realized that online education connects rural and indigenous communities, reduces the need for students to relocate, and promotes a well-prepared, qualified child welfare workforce, but online options also challenge programs with localization issues. With connectivity increased and the physical location of students becoming less and less relevant, IV-E child welfare education providers need a proactive national dialogue to further assess the benefits and barriers to IV-E partnerships across state lines and the development of promising approaches in this area. The recruitment and retention of a well-educated and prepared child welfare workforce is critical for positive outcomes for children and families. Online social work education continues to grow nationwide. Now is the time for a national workgroup, including a broad group of stakeholders, to explore how the IV-E community will respond to online delivery of social work education.     

The Physical Effects of Contact and Close‐Distance Gunfire on Sweatshirt Fleece

Powder stippling caused by the impact of propellant particles during close‐distance gunfire has been previously described on skin and solid objects only. Additionally, radial tearing has been described as clear evidence of a contact‐distance shot, requiring no further testing. Patterns of discrete perforating holes (referred to here as “stippling perforations”) and other physical damage on sweatshirt fleece fabrics were prepared. Using the firearm and ammunition in this study, stippling perforations were observed to a maximum muzzle‐to‐target distance of 35 cm (10 inches). In addition, radial tearing and disintegration were present (and often more extensive) at greater than contact distance. The presence of stippling perforations could augment muzzle‐to‐target distance estimates generated using the Griess test, or allow distance estimates when the Griess test is not feasible. Unlike what has been previously reported, testing on the original evidence (or similar substitute) is warranted when physical damage is used to estimate shooting distance.