The Rational Foraging Terrorist: Analysing the Distances Travelled to Commit Terrorist Violence

Abstract

This paper applies the distance-to-crime approach to the case of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) and shooting attacks conducted by the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) during the Northern Ireland conflict, 1970–1998. The aim is to (a) measure the typical ‘distance to crime’ (b) detect whether a distance-decay effect is noticeable and (c) investigate whether there is a discernible difference in the distance traveled depending upon individual offender characteristics or aspects of how the offence was committed. In particular, it highlights that many of the same dynamics that influence offender decision making within the volume crime world, also apply within the terrorism realm. Five findings stand out in particular. First, a distance decay effect is identifiable. Second, younger offenders travel significantly smaller distances. Third, complex attacks typically involve greater distances. Fourth, our results show the ability of leading decision-makers within PIRA to impact upon the day-to-day operations of the field operatives. Together the results reinforce the argument that when we focus on terrorism from a preventative angle, we should focus on their behaviors: what they do rather than remain preoccupied with concerns about who they are and/or what they might be like. Collectively the results also highlight the fact that for a finer-grained understanding of terrorist behavior we need to disaggregate on a number of levels: within the cadre of operatives, across terrorist attacks, across targets and within conflicts.     

法庭科学中泥土物证XRF检验数据的分析研判

目的 对元素分析产生的大量数据进行统计,从而达到准确对样品进行区分和归类的目的.方法 利用X射线荧光光谱法对从北京郊区10个区县、辽宁沈阳、安徽泗县、四川泸州、山东威海和广西南宁提取的225个泥土样品进行元素定量分析.采用SPSS软件中欧氏距离计算泥土样品间的差异,利用主成分分析法进行样品归类.结果 确定了不同空间距离样品间差异的欧氏距离的阈值.主成分分析法可对225个泥土进行较为准确的分类.结论 欧氏距离值可为泥土样品的比对提供量化比对依据,利用主成分分析法可推断未知泥土样品的来源.     

Economic voting in Hungary, 1998–2008

This study investigates retrospective voting and issue voting, and their change over time in a transitioning country. Sociotropic, as well as egocentric economic evaluations, and policy issues of parties are expected to play an increasing role in party preferences of citizens over time. Data consist of 41 Hungarian cross-sectional surveys, between 1998 and 2008. Results of conditional logistic regression models reveal that voters reward incumbent parties when they see improvements in their personal or the national economic situation, and punish them if the economy deteriorates. Distance from a given party on the left–right scale also decreases the chance of voting for that party. Voting behavior is changing during transition. The evaluations of the national economy and personal situation have an increasing impact on party preferences over time. We found educational heterogeneity in the extent of economic voting.     

心理距离对新兴经济体企业OFDI的影响及对策——基于异质性视角

研究国家之间的心理距离对新兴经济体跨国企业OFDI的影响,并基于高管海外背景、企业所有制和海外移民网络这三个维度异质性特征下,进一步探讨心理距离对企业OFDI的影响会产生何种变化。通过理论推导得出以下结论:第一,心理距离与新兴经济体企业OFDI之间并非简单的线性关系而是存在先减后增的"U"型关系;第二,高管海外背景能够缓和心理距离与企业OFDI的"U"型关系;第三,相较于非国有企业,国有企业能够弱化心理距离与企业OFDI决策的"U"型关系;第四,当海外移民网络越丰富时,企业OFDI随心理距离先减后增"U"型趋势也更为平缓。据以上结论,提出企业和政府两方面的政策建议:一方面,跨国企业进行OFDI决策时,结合自身情况以及投资动因,对心理距离带来的风险和收益进行权衡做出合理的投资决策,同时要充分发挥高管海外背景的经验优势,重视海外移民网络的资源优势,从而提升本国企业在全球的战略布局;另一方面,新兴经济体国家应重视心理距离的优势和劣势对跨国企业的影响,鼓励和引导跨国企业进行OFDI,创建公平的营商环境,建立及时有效的海外移民网络对接平台,鼓励和帮助更多企业走出去。     

远距离下的审美观照——谈“京派”代表作家沈从文小说的审美倾向

沈从文作为"京派"作家中创作成就最高的作家,以"乡下人"的眼光,构筑了一个富有魅力的"湘西世界",他的小说有其独特的审美眼光与审美角度.     

公安民警远程教育培训系统建设的研究

随着计算机和网络技术的普及,公安民警远程教育系统以"金盾网"为依托,已在许多省建立起来。公安民警网络教育平台采用模块化开发,主要模块包括学习系统、教学管理系统、资源库系统、考试系统、评估系统、信息交流系统、平台管理系统、统一报表系统及一些辅助模块等。整个系统内容丰富,功能强大,能够实现在职民警的学历教育和在职晋衔培训等继续教育。     

远程CAI系统的实现

本文主要探讨了远程教育中实时远程教学CAI系统的特点、功能及其实现,并给出了具体实现的一些关键技术。它在远程教育中是非常重要的一环,对远程教育效果的提高也起着重要的作用。系统控件由VB编写,数据库通过VisualForPro实现,由ODBC与系统联接。运行平台：MS Windows98／2000。     

The Optimal Distance of the Electrode to the Lifting Film Surface when Lifting Dust Footwear Impressions Using an Electrostatic Dust Print Lifter

Footwear impressions are one of the valuable physical evidence encountered at crime scenes and its identification can facilitate narrowing down the suspects and establishing the identity of the criminals. The technique of electrostatic lifting (ESL) dust shoeprints at crime scenes is well established with scenes of crime examiners. And in the procedure, the recovery of the original item containing the impression should be made as good as it can and not damage the marks. In this study, the different particle sizes of SiO₂ were used to simulate dust and light soil residues, comparing different particle sizes and electrode positions were used to compare the adsorption ability on the surface of electrostatic lifting film in high‐voltage electrostatic field for the collection of shoeprints. The results indicated that lifting film in electrostatic field will be pressed down to the dust surface, the compaction and electrostatic adsorption force will vary with the distance between the high‐voltage electrode and film surface. Reducing the distance can increase the electric field strength near the lifting film, and the adsorption capacity of Mylar aluminum‐plating film to dusts can be improved significantly. Adsorption capacity of the lifting film was related to the size of dust particles and significantly improved with the increase of the particle charge. The optimum distance which can get the best adsorption capacity between the electrode and film surface is from 10 to 15 mm.     

Estimating Projectile Perpendicular Impact Velocity on Metal Sheet Targets from the Shape of the Target Hole

Abstract:  The correlation between bullet hole shapes in metal and projectile impact velocity was examined. A series of shots were fired from an M-16A1 assault rifle of 5.56 mm caliber toward a 1-mm thick metal target. All shots were fired at a perpendicular angle to the metal sheets, and the velocity was measured just before the projectile hit the target. Velocities ranged between 400 and 900 m/sec. From the replica of the shooting hole, a perpendicular plane was created, showing the symmetrical properties of the hole. The best mathematical equation describing the shape of the entrance hole was the exponential function in the form:
The empirical equation of the hole defined using the regression method is:
This equation describes the general shape of shooting holes created by velocities ranging from 440 to 750 m/sec. From this equation, one can estimate the bullet velocity when it hits the target.     

Effects of Decomposition on Gunshot Wound Characteristics: Under Moderate Temperatures with Insect Activity

Abstract:  Previous studies document characteristics of gunshot wounds shortly after they were inflicted. This study was conducted to determine if the early stages of decomposition obscure or alter the physical surface characteristics of gunshot wounds, thereby affecting the quantity and quality of information retrievable from such evidence. The study was conducted in August and September, 2005 in Nova Scotia, Canada in forested and exposed environments. Recently killed pigs were used as research models and were shot six times each at three different ranges (contact, 2.5 cm, and 1.5 m). Under these test conditions, the gunshot wounds maintained the characteristics unique to each gunshot range and changes that occurred during decomposition were not critical to the interpretation of the evidence. It was concluded that changes due to decomposition under the conditions tested would not affect the collection and interpretation of gunshot wound evidence until the skin was degraded in the late active or advanced decay stage of decomposition.